Philly Fed Survey: US Economy to Grow Slower Than Previously Thought*

[cieldumort]

*Note: If the annual growth rate in the U.S. economy does indeed come in as low as this survey predicts, then the survey's expected unemployment rates are probably too rosy (or, more accurately, not high enough).

Fourth Quarter 2010 Survey of Professional Forecasters

Release Date: November 15, 2010
Forecasters Predict Further Slowdown in Economic Recovery

The pace of recovery in output and employment in the U.S. economy looks a little slower now than it did three months ago, according to 43 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The panel expects real GDP to grow at an annual rate of 2.2 percent this quarter, down from the previous estimate of 2.8 percent. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters predict slower real GDP growth in 2010, 2011, and 2012. However, some of that downward revision will be compensated with stronger real GDP growth in 2013. The forecasters see real GDP growing 2.7 percent in 2010, down from their prediction of 2.9 percent in the last survey. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow 2.5 percent in 2011, 2.9 percent in 2012, and 3.0 percent in 2013.
The forecasters also predict weaker recovery in the labor market. Unemployment is projected to be an annual average of 9.7 percent in 2010, before falling to 9.3 percent in 2011, 8.7 percent in 2012, and 7.9 percent in 2013. These estimates are higher than the projections in the last survey...

Real GDP (%)
Unemployment
Rate (%)
Payrolls
(000s/month)  
Previous
New
Previous
New
Previous
New Quarterly data: 2010:Q4
2.8
2.2
9.6
9.6
114.1
86.6 2011:Q1
2.3
2.4
9.4
9.5
159.3
104.2 Q2
3.1
2.7
9.3
9.4
190.7
144.3 Q3
3.0
3.3
9.0
9.2
189.9
139.8 Q4
N.A.
2.9
N.A.
9.0
N.A.
170.6 Annual data (projections are based on annual average levels): 2010
2.9
2.7
9.6
9.7
-45.2
-56.1 2011
2.7
2.5
9.2
9.3
143.8
105.5 2012
3.6
2.9
8.2
8.7
N.A.
N.A. 2013
2.6
3.0
7.3
7.9
N.A.
N.A.