Nine States Fell Back Into Recession as of June*
*From Economy.com
From Economy.com
The Pause That Distresses
Mark Zandi Aug. 13, 2010
...Lowering our growth estimates
Evidence that the recovery has lost traction has prompted a modest downgrade to our outlook for growth through the remainder of this year and into the next. Real GDP growth had been expected to weaken during the second half of 2010, but the slowdown occurred sooner and was more pronounced than expected.
For calendar year 2010, real GDP is now expected to grow 2.8%, down from the 3.1% forecast a few months ago. The calendar year 2011 growth estimate has come down to 3.4% from 3.8%. Prospects for employment and unemployment have not come down as much as GDP growth because of weaker than expected productivity gains.
Downside risks clearly predominate. Odds of a near-term double-dip recession, which appeared to be about one in five this spring, are now greater than one in four.
There are good reasons to be nervous about the economy’s near-term prospects. The collective psyche is so frayed that if anything else goes wrong, the economy will backtrack into recession. This isn’t expected, but the odds that it will are as high as they have been since the Great Recession ended.
From Economy.com
The Pause That Distresses
Mark Zandi Aug. 13, 2010
...Lowering our growth estimates
Evidence that the recovery has lost traction has prompted a modest downgrade to our outlook for growth through the remainder of this year and into the next. Real GDP growth had been expected to weaken during the second half of 2010, but the slowdown occurred sooner and was more pronounced than expected.
For calendar year 2010, real GDP is now expected to grow 2.8%, down from the 3.1% forecast a few months ago. The calendar year 2011 growth estimate has come down to 3.4% from 3.8%. Prospects for employment and unemployment have not come down as much as GDP growth because of weaker than expected productivity gains.
Downside risks clearly predominate. Odds of a near-term double-dip recession, which appeared to be about one in five this spring, are now greater than one in four.
There are good reasons to be nervous about the economy’s near-term prospects. The collective psyche is so frayed that if anything else goes wrong, the economy will backtrack into recession. This isn’t expected, but the odds that it will are as high as they have been since the Great Recession ended.