Conference Board's Own Indexes Could Support Notion of Any "New" Recession Being Continuation
The following chart has now been updated through May, 2010
This chart clearly shows that despite very strong upticks in the Conference Board's "Leading Economic Index," or "LEI," the actual Coincident Index, which is meant to closely reflect real-time economic conditions, and which normally trails the Leading Economic Index by a quarter or few, remains stuck in a "Sloping L," or Japan-like, recovery. Consequently, should a "new" recession start sometime over the next few quarters -and- the Conference Board's very own Coincident Index not yet recovered much more of it's post-2007 collapse, an argument could be easily made that such a "new" recession would merely be a continuation of a very long slump which began in 2007.
I would think a better title for any such potential double dip, if realized, would be a "new" recession occurring as part of the "Depression of the early 2000s" -
This chart clearly shows that despite very strong upticks in the Conference Board's "Leading Economic Index," or "LEI," the actual Coincident Index, which is meant to closely reflect real-time economic conditions, and which normally trails the Leading Economic Index by a quarter or few, remains stuck in a "Sloping L," or Japan-like, recovery. Consequently, should a "new" recession start sometime over the next few quarters -and- the Conference Board's very own Coincident Index not yet recovered much more of it's post-2007 collapse, an argument could be easily made that such a "new" recession would merely be a continuation of a very long slump which began in 2007.
I would think a better title for any such potential double dip, if realized, would be a "new" recession occurring as part of the "Depression of the early 2000s" -