Global Double Dip Risk Now Even Reflected in Conservative Conference Board LEI
Time For A Poll, Ladies & Gents
But first, today's releases.
Economic Indicators from Econoday.com
Released on 5/20/2010 10:00:00 AM For Apr, 2010 PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual Leading Indicators - M/M change1.4 %0.1 %0.1 % to 0.7 %-0.1 %
Highlights
The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators posted its first decline in a more than a year, down 0.1 percent in April and reflecting a decline in building permits and shortening delivery times. Unemployment claims also weighed on the index and may very well weigh on May's results given this morning's big jump. Consumer confidence was also a negative and, given the turmoil in Europe and losses in the U.S. stock market, may also be a negative for May. But the Conference Board is upbeat saying the recovery will continue though it may slow through the summer. Other data include a 0.3 percent rise for the coincident indicator in what is a key indication that the economy has indeed moved out of recession.
Released on 5/20/2010 8:30:00 AM For wk5/15, 2010 PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual New Claims - Level444 K440 K435 K to 445 K471 K4-week Moving Average - Level450.5 K 453.5 K
Highlights
In a setback for the May payroll outlook, initial jobless claims jumped 25,000 in the May 15 week to 471,000. The disappointment includes a 2,000 upward revision to the prior week. There are no special factors to explain the latest week's jump. The 471,000 level is the highest in five weeks, the second highest since February, and 12,000 higher vs. mid-April. But in an important offset, the four-week average of 453,500 does show improvement from mid-April's 461,000.
Continuing claims also show improvement, down 40,000 in the May 8 week to 4.625 million. The four-week average of 4.643 million is little changed compared to April. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged at 3.6 percent.
Initial claims have been stubbornly high with expectations hoping for a big move lower -- not a big move higher. If next week's report doesn't show a reversal, estimates for May payrolls will be very conservative. Stocks and commodities are moving lower in reaction to the data with money moving into the safety of Treasuries.
CNBC After-Hours Headline:
Stocks to Tumble Another 20%, Cash the Safest Place: Roubini
Stocks are likely to continue their aggressive decline and shed another 20 percent as the world economy weakens, economist Nouriel Roubini told CNBC.
Poll Dippers?
But first, today's releases.
Economic Indicators from Econoday.com
Released on 5/20/2010 10:00:00 AM For Apr, 2010 PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual Leading Indicators - M/M change1.4 %0.1 %0.1 % to 0.7 %-0.1 %
Highlights
The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators posted its first decline in a more than a year, down 0.1 percent in April and reflecting a decline in building permits and shortening delivery times. Unemployment claims also weighed on the index and may very well weigh on May's results given this morning's big jump. Consumer confidence was also a negative and, given the turmoil in Europe and losses in the U.S. stock market, may also be a negative for May. But the Conference Board is upbeat saying the recovery will continue though it may slow through the summer. Other data include a 0.3 percent rise for the coincident indicator in what is a key indication that the economy has indeed moved out of recession.
Released on 5/20/2010 8:30:00 AM For wk5/15, 2010 PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual New Claims - Level444 K440 K435 K to 445 K471 K4-week Moving Average - Level450.5 K 453.5 K
Highlights
In a setback for the May payroll outlook, initial jobless claims jumped 25,000 in the May 15 week to 471,000. The disappointment includes a 2,000 upward revision to the prior week. There are no special factors to explain the latest week's jump. The 471,000 level is the highest in five weeks, the second highest since February, and 12,000 higher vs. mid-April. But in an important offset, the four-week average of 453,500 does show improvement from mid-April's 461,000.
Continuing claims also show improvement, down 40,000 in the May 8 week to 4.625 million. The four-week average of 4.643 million is little changed compared to April. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged at 3.6 percent.
Initial claims have been stubbornly high with expectations hoping for a big move lower -- not a big move higher. If next week's report doesn't show a reversal, estimates for May payrolls will be very conservative. Stocks and commodities are moving lower in reaction to the data with money moving into the safety of Treasuries.
CNBC After-Hours Headline:
Stocks to Tumble Another 20%, Cash the Safest Place: Roubini
Stocks are likely to continue their aggressive decline and shed another 20 percent as the world economy weakens, economist Nouriel Roubini told CNBC.
Poll Dippers?