CMI Forecasts GDP Contraction in US Next Quarter
No Quarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle
Welcomes Rick Davis:
This episode of NQR’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle has concluded. You can listen to a recording of the episode in its entirety by clicking the play button on the audio player provided below. Once the audio begins, you can advance or rewind to any portion of the episode by clicking at any point along the play bar.
Consumer Metrics Institute: Daily Growth Index
-Related-
Peter Morici:
Seeking Alpha: Breakthrough Jobs Report Expected
Economists are looking for a breakthrough employment report that will send the stock market soaring, and buoy Democrats coming off a big win on health care.
Friday, the Labor Department releases the March employment report. In February, the economy shed 36,000 jobs, as the unemployment rate was steady at 9.7 percent, but economists believe Northeast blizzards held down jobs creation.
For March, the consensus of forecasters expects a 200,000 jobs gain, though estimates range from a loss of 40,000 jobs to a gain exceeding 300,000. My forecast is for a gain of 150,000.
Let’s hope the optimists have it right, and the economy can dodge a double dip recession. Still a one in five chance of a double dip, and a one in two chance of one quarter of negative GDP growth, after the inventory rebuild is complete.
One negative quarter should not be a worry. Takeoffs are hardly ever seamless or smooth-we had two negative quarters interrupted by positive quarters during the 2001 acceleration.
Consumer spending is up, and a bit more is being made in the USA.
People aren’t buying homes but they are buying other durable goods again...
Welcomes Rick Davis:
This episode of NQR’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle has concluded. You can listen to a recording of the episode in its entirety by clicking the play button on the audio player provided below. Once the audio begins, you can advance or rewind to any portion of the episode by clicking at any point along the play bar.
Consumer Metrics Institute: Daily Growth Index
-Related-
Peter Morici:
Seeking Alpha: Breakthrough Jobs Report Expected
Economists are looking for a breakthrough employment report that will send the stock market soaring, and buoy Democrats coming off a big win on health care.
Friday, the Labor Department releases the March employment report. In February, the economy shed 36,000 jobs, as the unemployment rate was steady at 9.7 percent, but economists believe Northeast blizzards held down jobs creation.
For March, the consensus of forecasters expects a 200,000 jobs gain, though estimates range from a loss of 40,000 jobs to a gain exceeding 300,000. My forecast is for a gain of 150,000.
Let’s hope the optimists have it right, and the economy can dodge a double dip recession. Still a one in five chance of a double dip, and a one in two chance of one quarter of negative GDP growth, after the inventory rebuild is complete.
One negative quarter should not be a worry. Takeoffs are hardly ever seamless or smooth-we had two negative quarters interrupted by positive quarters during the 2001 acceleration.
Consumer spending is up, and a bit more is being made in the USA.
People aren’t buying homes but they are buying other durable goods again...