Weather Probably Hurt German Exports & UK Industrial Production
In the final month of the first quarter of 2010, the data out of Germany continues to show strong indications of flat to negative growth for the entire quarter as a whole. After a flat Q4, this would essentially be a double dip recession in the German economy, recognized as such by the German government, or not, if verified.
The UK, which barely showed positive growth in the final quarter of last year, may or may not be eeking out another quarter of positive growth in the current quarter, as today's release of Industrial Production numbers for January show that it wasn't off to a stellar start this year by any stretch of the imagination.
Bloomberg:
German Exports Unexpectedly Slumped in January
March 10 (Bloomberg) -- German exports unexpectedly slumped in January, erasing December’s jump and ending a four-month streak of gains.
With rising unemployment damping consumer spending, Germany is relying on exports to drive a recovery from its worst recession since World War II. While Bundesbank President Axel Weber yesterday warned that the coldest winter in 14 years may cause the economy to contract this quarter, he said robust factory orders and industrial production show the upswing is “essentially” intact...
iMarketNews.com
UK Analysis: Manufacturing Output Down Sharply In January
LONDON (MNI) - Manufacturing output fell sharply in January, the first fall since August last year, with the cold weather hitting production, according to figures released by National Statistics Wednesday.
Manufacturing output fell 0.9% on the month in January to stand 0.2% above levels a year earlier. This was the first monthly decline in output since August last year when it plunged 2.1%.
The data completely wrong-footed analysts who had forecast a rise in output of 0.3% on the month and 1.4% on the year.
Barring a strong bounceback in the coming months then the manufacturing sector could easily slip back into negative quarterly growth in Q1. The poor figures are also likely to raise concerns that if the weather has a similar impact on the service sector then GDP as a whole could post a fall this quarter. The purchasing managers surveys, however, did show activity growth rising to multi-years highs in February, suggesting there may well have been a strong rebound in February following the cold snap...
The UK, which barely showed positive growth in the final quarter of last year, may or may not be eeking out another quarter of positive growth in the current quarter, as today's release of Industrial Production numbers for January show that it wasn't off to a stellar start this year by any stretch of the imagination.
Bloomberg:
German Exports Unexpectedly Slumped in January
March 10 (Bloomberg) -- German exports unexpectedly slumped in January, erasing December’s jump and ending a four-month streak of gains.
With rising unemployment damping consumer spending, Germany is relying on exports to drive a recovery from its worst recession since World War II. While Bundesbank President Axel Weber yesterday warned that the coldest winter in 14 years may cause the economy to contract this quarter, he said robust factory orders and industrial production show the upswing is “essentially” intact...
iMarketNews.com
UK Analysis: Manufacturing Output Down Sharply In January
LONDON (MNI) - Manufacturing output fell sharply in January, the first fall since August last year, with the cold weather hitting production, according to figures released by National Statistics Wednesday.
Manufacturing output fell 0.9% on the month in January to stand 0.2% above levels a year earlier. This was the first monthly decline in output since August last year when it plunged 2.1%.
The data completely wrong-footed analysts who had forecast a rise in output of 0.3% on the month and 1.4% on the year.
Barring a strong bounceback in the coming months then the manufacturing sector could easily slip back into negative quarterly growth in Q1. The poor figures are also likely to raise concerns that if the weather has a similar impact on the service sector then GDP as a whole could post a fall this quarter. The purchasing managers surveys, however, did show activity growth rising to multi-years highs in February, suggesting there may well have been a strong rebound in February following the cold snap...