Krugman Expands Upon 2010 Recession Risk Statement

[cieldumort]

PK: 30% - 40% odds of technical recession in second half, better than even odds of "growth recession."

From Bloomberg:
Krugman Sees 30-40% Chance of U.S. Recession in 2010


Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said he sees about a one-third chance the U.S. economy will slide into a recession during the second half of the

Comments

[underlankers]

So if the stimulus doesn't work, what will?

[alobar]

Seems to me we need a trickle-up stimulus, not a trickle-down one.

[cieldumort]

That upside-down utopian world you dream of. Silly alobar.

[underlankers]

Unfortunately, people have been trying for that since at least Wang Mang, Emperor of China, 2,000 years ago and nobody's yet succeeded.

[cieldumort]

How do you define "work?" The GOP right now is trying to define "work" as recreating the mid-late 1980s - their last "glory days," if you will... and anything less than that is total failure. It's all black and white.

In reality, the stimulus, combined with the Fed's massive liquidity interventions, plus global bank bailouts, not only averted a Greater Great Depression, but helped swing global GDP from terribly negative to marginally positive, practically overnight.

How quickly we forget.

[underlankers]

I choose not to define "work" by the standards of the 80s, but rather by the period of the liberal consensus. By *that* standard the 80s and after have been further down the downhill slope.

I will agree with you that the stimulus has averted a worse crisis than might have been otherwise.