Q3 GDP & Housing Revisions Expose Considerable Double Dip Risk

[cieldumort]

Significant downward revisions to earlier estimates of both third quarter US Gross Domestic Product and recent months' New Home Sales (which are by far greater drivers of economic growth compared to their Existing Home Sales counterpart), expose that the threat of a Double Dip Recession is not only very real, but appears to be rising.

From Econoday

Comments

[nebris]

WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!

Sorry, I just needed to get that out of my body. =P

~M~

..but does feel like that some of these days..

[cieldumort]

heh heh ;)

[capthek]

I am confused, is that 2% negative? Slow and steady wins the race.

[cieldumort]

The GDP data you are looking at shows both the quarterly (QoQ) and annual (YoY) changes. Third quarter growth was 2.2% from the second quarter.

Slow but steady -does not- win the race coming out of deep recessions. SLow but steady coming out of deep recessions yields Long Depressions.

[cieldumort]

Here's taking a look at how US GDP fared over the course of the last few recessions (the two "shallow" recessions of 90-91 and 2001 and the "deep" recession of 1981-82). These details give a clearer idea of how GDP more typically rebounds after "shallow" and "deep" modern-day recessions.

These are Quarter-on-Quarter changes, at annualized rates (Multiplied by roughly four)

[sophiaserpentia]

I am Jack's total lack of surprise.

[cieldumort]

ikr

[underlankers]

This recovery was never even in the first place. When Wall Street recovers but the Main Street is still in the shits, that is not a recovery. So it's no surprise the recovery is stagnant. And what's more, I believe that recovery on Wall Street tells us where TARP and the Obama Bailout ended up: in the pockets of the 1%.

[cieldumort]

Probably fairer to say in the pockets of the top 10%, and primarily in the top 2%, but otherwise, yes, I generally agree.