Comments | the_recession: I have a question for ya.

capthek in the_recession

I have a question for ya.

May 15, 2009 00:44

What would the unemployment rate be if we didn't have so many immigrants either not entering the U.S. who would have, or actually going back home (legal or otherwise)? This article below just talks about Mexico, but my guestimate is that we would have at least another million people who were newly unemployed so far this year. Anybody else have ( Read more... )

definition of recession, construction spending, unemployment rate, immigration

Comments 6

cieldumort May 15 2009, 06:34:25 UTC

Not sure about the implications of legal immigration (such as work visas for east Indians, etc.).. but at least as far as illegal immigration is concerned...

What would the unemployment rate be if we didn't have so many immigrants either not entering the U.S. who would have, or actually going back home

Being that we have effectively allowed illegal immigrants in with our blessing (in all reality, that IS the policy of the US and has been for at least a few decades) we need to consider them part of our citizenry at least for the purpose of considering REAL unemployment ratesThese workers are so off the books it's ridiculous, but the reality is, this recession may have actually started as early as 2006 (or, perhaps more appropriately, there may have actually been a two-quarter NBER-definition of recession) back in 2006.. if only we counted ALL domestic labor *including all the "illegal" immigration ( ... )

cieldumort May 15 2009, 06:46:25 UTC

Here's a couple more:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2007/04/goldmans-hatzius-on-residential.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=azttcmXd75qk&refer=home

cieldumort May 15 2009, 07:14:25 UTC

I've custom-created a chart of the last couple years worth of quarterly GDP data, to illustrate my point about the very weak period in 2006 (that also continued through Q1 2007).

I would definitely call the three-quarter slowdown from mid 2006 through early 2007 a growth recession. It was during this time that housing (and truly, the entire economy) started to meltdown, without a hint of the meltdown in the unemployment numbers!

( ... )

capthek May 15 2009, 12:16:26 UTC

Man, I just think the immigration issue is so fascinating, can't think of another nation that can basically get away with exporting their unemployment like that. Well, at least to this extent. I can buy the growth recession going back that far, hell as I pointed out before if it were not for mortgage extracted wealth we never "really" have been anything more than stagnant for years and years. That is one of the reasons I felt like we were going through a 70s style inflationary spiral that was hidden because prices were mostly in housing and didn't seem to affect the dollar or gas prices as much as they did in the 70s, but either way I think our economy has basically been in the dumps since the dot com bomb really.

cieldumort May 15 2009, 16:54:24 UTC

I think most US citizens would say that they preferred we didn't "get away with" exporting our employment like that. I mean, the fact is, yeah, sure, it hid a point or twos worth of U3 and all that... but I kinda doubt that these were jobs "Americans don't want or need" -- I've talked [with] a few former construction workers who might not want or [basically can't] live on $10 an hour with no benefits.. not even workman's comp... (the going rate for a lot of illegal construction laborers)... but, that wasn't their going rate before their job got undercut illegally.

capthek May 16 2009, 04:53:22 UTC

True.