More Recession To Recovery Signposts
Those of us who have been members here from the start may recall how so many of our discussions were about whether or not this downturn would officially get recorded as a "recession," as much of the data was still mixed for many months in 2008, before literally all of them turned decidedly nightmarish in the fall.
Today, the discussion continues turning towards if things are improving enough for this upswing to officially be recorded as the start of a new "expansion" (recovery), as much of the data is mixed, and very little of it is getting worse, any more.
Bloomberg:
U.S. Economy: Manufacturing, Confidence Reach Seven-Month Highs
U.S. manufacturing and consumer confidence last month unexpectedly jumped to their highest levels since the credit crisis intensified in September, indicating the economy is on the mend.
The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 40.1 from 36.3 in March; readings less than 50 signal a contraction. The Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment jumped by the most in more than two years, climbing to 65.1.
The figures may be the clearest signal yet that Federal Reserve and Obama administration efforts to lower borrowing costs and unclog lending are starting to pay off. The worst economic slump in at least half a century is still likely to persist for months as companies from Caterpillar Inc. to Chrysler LLC and General Motors Corp. continue to cut back...
Factory Orders
A separate report from the Commerce Department showed factory orders dipped in March after a February gain, suggesting any manufacturing recovery is likely to be gradual...
Job Cuts
The Labor Department is scheduled to release its April employment report on May 8. U.S. employers may have eliminated more than 600,000 jobs for a fifth consecutive month, according to a Bloomberg survey...
Record-low mortgage rates, cheaper gasoline and surging stock prices are providing some relief to the beleaguered American consumer in the face of mounting unemployment and tumbling home prices.
Chrysler U.S. Sales Fall 48%; Toyota Trails Estimates
Chrysler LLC’s U.S. sales plunged 48 percent in April as it slid toward bankruptcy, helping drag Toyota Motor Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Co. to declines that exceeded analysts’ estimates.
General Motors Corp.’s 34 percent decrease and Honda Motor Co.’s 25 percent drop were smaller than projections. Chrysler also trailed estimates. Ford slumped 32 percent, Toyota tumbled 42 percent and Nissan fell 38 percent.
The results mean that the U.S. market contracted for an 18th consecutive month, as a rebound in consumer confidence was tempered by Chrysler’s filing for court protection and the swine flu outbreak. While industrywide sales fell 34 percent, that decrease was the smallest in 2009, based on Bloomberg data...
‘CNN Effect’
Ford said sales slowed in the last week of April, which it attributed to heavy news coverage of the bailout plans for GM and Chrysler, as well as reports about the new flu strain...
JPMorgan, Barclays Say Economy Will Grow in Last Half
Conditions are falling into place for the U.S. economy to begin growing again in the second half of 2009, according to economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Barclays Capital Inc...
Inventory Effect
...“While some mixed green shoots of a turning point have begun to appear, the U.S. economy is still in significant decline,” economists at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York wrote in an April 29 note. The analysts forecast the economy will keep shrinking, albeit at a slower pace, for the rest of 2009.
Falter Again
Economists at Credit Suisse Holdings Inc. in New York are among those projecting the economy will rebound this quarter only to falter again. Smaller cutbacks in inventories will lead to a 1 percent pace of expansion from April through June, which will give way to a 1.2 percent rate of contraction in the third quarter, when rising unemployment and lower incomes cause consumers to retrench.
“We’re not yet on a sustainable path,” said Jonathan Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse...
Today, the discussion continues turning towards if things are improving enough for this upswing to officially be recorded as the start of a new "expansion" (recovery), as much of the data is mixed, and very little of it is getting worse, any more.
Bloomberg:
U.S. Economy: Manufacturing, Confidence Reach Seven-Month Highs
U.S. manufacturing and consumer confidence last month unexpectedly jumped to their highest levels since the credit crisis intensified in September, indicating the economy is on the mend.
The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 40.1 from 36.3 in March; readings less than 50 signal a contraction. The Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment jumped by the most in more than two years, climbing to 65.1.
The figures may be the clearest signal yet that Federal Reserve and Obama administration efforts to lower borrowing costs and unclog lending are starting to pay off. The worst economic slump in at least half a century is still likely to persist for months as companies from Caterpillar Inc. to Chrysler LLC and General Motors Corp. continue to cut back...
Factory Orders
A separate report from the Commerce Department showed factory orders dipped in March after a February gain, suggesting any manufacturing recovery is likely to be gradual...
Job Cuts
The Labor Department is scheduled to release its April employment report on May 8. U.S. employers may have eliminated more than 600,000 jobs for a fifth consecutive month, according to a Bloomberg survey...
Record-low mortgage rates, cheaper gasoline and surging stock prices are providing some relief to the beleaguered American consumer in the face of mounting unemployment and tumbling home prices.
Chrysler U.S. Sales Fall 48%; Toyota Trails Estimates
Chrysler LLC’s U.S. sales plunged 48 percent in April as it slid toward bankruptcy, helping drag Toyota Motor Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Co. to declines that exceeded analysts’ estimates.
General Motors Corp.’s 34 percent decrease and Honda Motor Co.’s 25 percent drop were smaller than projections. Chrysler also trailed estimates. Ford slumped 32 percent, Toyota tumbled 42 percent and Nissan fell 38 percent.
The results mean that the U.S. market contracted for an 18th consecutive month, as a rebound in consumer confidence was tempered by Chrysler’s filing for court protection and the swine flu outbreak. While industrywide sales fell 34 percent, that decrease was the smallest in 2009, based on Bloomberg data...
‘CNN Effect’
Ford said sales slowed in the last week of April, which it attributed to heavy news coverage of the bailout plans for GM and Chrysler, as well as reports about the new flu strain...
JPMorgan, Barclays Say Economy Will Grow in Last Half
Conditions are falling into place for the U.S. economy to begin growing again in the second half of 2009, according to economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Barclays Capital Inc...
Inventory Effect
...“While some mixed green shoots of a turning point have begun to appear, the U.S. economy is still in significant decline,” economists at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York wrote in an April 29 note. The analysts forecast the economy will keep shrinking, albeit at a slower pace, for the rest of 2009.
Falter Again
Economists at Credit Suisse Holdings Inc. in New York are among those projecting the economy will rebound this quarter only to falter again. Smaller cutbacks in inventories will lead to a 1 percent pace of expansion from April through June, which will give way to a 1.2 percent rate of contraction in the third quarter, when rising unemployment and lower incomes cause consumers to retrench.
“We’re not yet on a sustainable path,” said Jonathan Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse...