Top Leading Indicator Indexes Mixed, Q1 GDP Was Probably Horrible
Clearly, even the experts are in disagreement.
Aren't they all looking at the exactly the same data? Not necessarily.
Some of these research organizations weigh some series more than others, and even exclude some data altogether, in arriving at their conclusions.
One thing is fairly certain, GDP over the past three months in the U.S. was probably just about as bad, if not possibly even worse, than the final quarter of 2008.
I've compiled the following list for our consideration -
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI)™
Shows Strong but Moderating Decline in March
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI)™ fell again in March. The index now stands at 90.1, decreasing 2.3 percent from the February revised figure of 92.2, and down 22.1 percent from a year ago.
"While we see a continued sharp fall in the ETI, the decline was not as strong as in the previous four months, suggesting that the most intense stage of job losses may be behind us," said Gad Levanon, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. "However, the drops in each of the eight components of the ETI in March signal that many more jobs will disappear over the next several months."
The 20-month-long decline in the Employment Trends Index™ is seen in all eight of its components, most notably over the past six months in temporary-help hires and part-time workers for economic reasons...
Conference Board LEI for the U.S. declined in February
The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. declined in February, following a slight increase in January. The monthly increase for December was revised to a small decline, while January's monthly increase was revised lower, due mainly to data revisions in manufacturers' new orders and real money supply. Between August 2008 and February 2009, the index fell 2.1 percent (a -4.1 percent annual rate), faster than the decline of 1.6 percent (a -3.1 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have remained widespread in recent months...
OECD Composite Leading Indicators reach new low
The OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs) for January 2009 continue to point to a weakening outlook for all the major seven economies, with the OECD total falling again to a new low and little clear indication of stabilization soon. The outlook has also continued to deteriorate in the major non-OECD member economies, particularly Brazil, which now joins China, India and Russia, in the strong slowdown group.
The CLI for the OECD area decreased by 0.9 point in January 2009 and was 9.1 points lower than in January 2008. The CLI for the United States fell by 1.4 point in January and was 10.8 points lower than a year ago. The Euro area’s CLI decreased by 0.6 point in January and stood 8.4 points lower than a year ago. In January, the CLI for Japan decreased by 1.5 point, and was 9.6 points lower than a year ago...
Steve Hansen (Seeking Alpha):
ECRI: Economy Showing Signs of Future Stability
According to the U.S. Weekly Leading Index (US WLI) released on 03/20/09 published by Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), there are signs the economy is beginning to stabilize. Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI states:
WLI growth held steady in the latest week and is clearly holding above its December low, suggesting that U.S. economic growth will stabilize in coming months.
E-forecasting US Leading Indicators Lower Again in March
Credit: E-forecasting: US Leading Economic Index
E-forecasting: US GDP was down down by 9.9% (SAAR) in Q1
Credit: E-forecasting: US Monthly GDP
Aren't they all looking at the exactly the same data? Not necessarily.
Some of these research organizations weigh some series more than others, and even exclude some data altogether, in arriving at their conclusions.
One thing is fairly certain, GDP over the past three months in the U.S. was probably just about as bad, if not possibly even worse, than the final quarter of 2008.
I've compiled the following list for our consideration -
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI)™
Shows Strong but Moderating Decline in March
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI)™ fell again in March. The index now stands at 90.1, decreasing 2.3 percent from the February revised figure of 92.2, and down 22.1 percent from a year ago.
"While we see a continued sharp fall in the ETI, the decline was not as strong as in the previous four months, suggesting that the most intense stage of job losses may be behind us," said Gad Levanon, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. "However, the drops in each of the eight components of the ETI in March signal that many more jobs will disappear over the next several months."
The 20-month-long decline in the Employment Trends Index™ is seen in all eight of its components, most notably over the past six months in temporary-help hires and part-time workers for economic reasons...
Conference Board LEI for the U.S. declined in February
The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. declined in February, following a slight increase in January. The monthly increase for December was revised to a small decline, while January's monthly increase was revised lower, due mainly to data revisions in manufacturers' new orders and real money supply. Between August 2008 and February 2009, the index fell 2.1 percent (a -4.1 percent annual rate), faster than the decline of 1.6 percent (a -3.1 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have remained widespread in recent months...
OECD Composite Leading Indicators reach new low
The OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs) for January 2009 continue to point to a weakening outlook for all the major seven economies, with the OECD total falling again to a new low and little clear indication of stabilization soon. The outlook has also continued to deteriorate in the major non-OECD member economies, particularly Brazil, which now joins China, India and Russia, in the strong slowdown group.
The CLI for the OECD area decreased by 0.9 point in January 2009 and was 9.1 points lower than in January 2008. The CLI for the United States fell by 1.4 point in January and was 10.8 points lower than a year ago. The Euro area’s CLI decreased by 0.6 point in January and stood 8.4 points lower than a year ago. In January, the CLI for Japan decreased by 1.5 point, and was 9.6 points lower than a year ago...
Steve Hansen (Seeking Alpha):
ECRI: Economy Showing Signs of Future Stability
According to the U.S. Weekly Leading Index (US WLI) released on 03/20/09 published by Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), there are signs the economy is beginning to stabilize. Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI states:
WLI growth held steady in the latest week and is clearly holding above its December low, suggesting that U.S. economic growth will stabilize in coming months.
E-forecasting US Leading Indicators Lower Again in March
Credit: E-forecasting: US Leading Economic Index
E-forecasting: US GDP was down down by 9.9% (SAAR) in Q1
Credit: E-forecasting: US Monthly GDP