Octobers' sub-40 PMI - A historical perspective
Monthly PMI number since the report first began in 1948
Just how unusual was last month's sub-40 level?
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2008 50.7 48.3 48.6 48.6 49.6 50.2 50.0 49.9 43.5 38.9 2007 49.3 51.5 50.7 52.8 52.8 53.4 52.3 51.2 50.5 50.4 50.0 48.4 2006 54.8 55.0 54.3 55.9 53.8 52.7 53.4 53.5 51.9 51.1 49.7 51.5 2005 56.6 54.4 54.8 52.5 51.0 52.9 54.3 51.9 56.6 57.3 56.3 54.4 2004 60.8 59.9 60.6 60.6 61.4 60.5 59.9 58.5 57.4 56.3 56.2 57.2 2003 51.3 48.8 46.3 46.1 49.0 49.0 51.0 53.2 52.4 55.2 58.4 60.1 2002 47.5 50.7 52.4 52.4 53.1 53.6 50.2 50.3 50.5 49.0 48.5 51.6 2001 42.3 42.1 43.1 42.7 41.3 43.2 43.5 46.3 46.2 40.8 44.1 45.3 2000 56.7 55.8 54.9 54.7 53.2 51.4 52.5 49.9 49.7 48.7 48.5 43.9 1999 50.6 51.7 52.4 52.3 54.3 55.8 53.6 54.8 57.0 57.2 58.1 57.8 1998 53.8 52.9 52.9 52.2 50.9 48.9 49.2 49.3 48.7 48.7 48.2 46.8 1997 53.8 53.1 53.8 53.7 56.1 54.9 57.7 56.3 53.9 56.4 55.7 54.5 1996 45.5 45.9 46.9 49.3 49.1 53.6 49.7 51.6 51.1 50.5 53.0 55.2 1995 57.4 55.1 52.1 51.5 46.7 45.9 50.7 47.1 48.1 46.7 45.9 46.2 1994 56.0 56.5 56.9 57.4 58.2 58.8 58.5 58.0 59.0 59.4 59.2 56.1 1993 55.8 55.2 53.5 50.2 51.2 49.6 50.2 50.7 50.8 53.4 53.8 55.6 1992 47.3 52.7 54.6 52.6 55.7 53.6 53.9 53.4 49.7 50.3 53.6 54.2 1991 39.2 39.4 40.7 42.8 44.5 50.3 50.6 52.9 54.9 53.1 49.5 46.8 1990 47.2 49.1 49.9 50.0 49.5 49.2 46.6 46.1 44.5 43.2 41.3 40.8 1989 54.7 54.1 51.5 52.2 49.3 47.3 45.9 45.1 46.0 46.8 46.8 47.4 1988 57.5 56.2 54.6 55.8 55.5 59.3 58.2 56.0 54.6 55.5 55.6 56.0 1987 54.9 52.6 55.0 55.5 57.2 57.4 57.5 59.3 60.1 60.7 58.8 61.0 1986 51.2 51.0 51.0 49.7 53.4 50.5 48.0 52.6 52.4 51.2 51.2 50.5 1985 50.3 49.9 47.8 48.2 47.1 47.8 47.9 47.7 49.9 50.9 52.0 50.7 1984 60.5 61.3 58.9 61.0 58.6 58.1 56.1 53.0 50.0 50.8 50.3 50.6 1983 46.0 54.4 53.9 54.2 56.1 57.5 63.6 63.1 62.5 64.4 66.0 69.9 1982 38.2 38.3 36.8 37.8 35.5 38.3 38.4 38.3 38.8 39.4 39.2 42.8 1981 49.2 48.8 49.6 51.6 53.5 50.7 46.7 48.3 42.5 40.0 36.1 37.8 1980 46.2 50.2 43.6 37.4 29.4 30.3 35.0 45.5 50.1 55.5 58.2 53.0 1979 58.5 58.2 57.7 56.2 54.4 52.7 51.3 49.5 49.6 49.0 48.0 44.8 1978 57.4 55.9 55.0 57.7 60.2 60.5 62.2 60.3 60.5 60.1 61.3 59.4 1977 54.8 55.0 58.4 56.9 59.7 56.8 57.7 54.9 53.9 55.4 56.1 59.8 1976 58.8 61.5 58.4 60.6 58.8 58.2 55.9 54.5 53.6 53.5 51.7 56.6 1975 30.7 34.4 31.6 37.5 41.2 45.1 47.2 51.4 54.4 55.5 54.5 54.9 1974 62.1 58.6 61.8 59.9 55.7 54.7 54.8 52.9 46.2 42.7 37.9 30.9 1973 72.1 69.6 69.6 67.7 64.8 65.0 57.8 62.7 63.5 66.2 68.1 63.6 1972 59.6 60.6 59.8 59.3 61.4 58.6 60.1 61.7 65.1 67.0 69.9 70.5 1971 47.9 54.8 51.2 54.5 54.2 53.8 54.4 53.6 55.1 55.0 52.3 57.6 1970 48.7 47.4 46.9 45.0 47.2 51.1 49.5 47.3 44.1 42.4 39.7 45.4 1969 54.9 57.0 57.1 55.2 56.7 55.5 53.1 54.8 54.1 54.6 53.2 52.0 1968 56.6 55.0 53.8 58.0 55.3 53.5 54.1 52.7 51.8 55.8 58.1 56.1 1967 49.1 47.6 45.3 42.8 44.5 46.8 49.5 52.2 54.9 54.1 54.2 55.6 1966 65.8 65.5 65.7 64.2 57.7 59.0 60.3 58.5 58.7 57.2 53.7 52.4 1965 61.0 62.1 64.9 62.0 61.3 58.7 58.1 58.1 61.0 58.6 59.4 62.8 1964 57.1 57.9 60.2 59.2 58.7 60.1 62.9 63.3 63.3 60.7 61.8 62.4 1963 55.2 55.1 54.7 57.6 59.8 58.2 55.5 55.1 56.9 57.7 57.5 54.0 1962 60.9 61.1 60.6 55.1 52.2 50.8 51.0 49.5 50.0 51.2 53.8 57.2 1961 43.9 43.6 49.1 57.6 58.9 58.1 58.2 60.7 63.0 62.2 59.0 64.2 1960 61.5 52.3 47.8 45.3 42.6 44.4 43.7 47.6 45.4 46.0 44.3 44.3 1959 64.4 66.9 67.1 66.9 68.2 64.4 61.5 55.1 48.3 49.7 50.6 58.2 1958 33.4 37.2 39.8 39.1 46.6 51.4 54.7 57.3 59.8 62.3 62.7 60.5 1957 53.6 51.0 47.5 43.1 43.4 45.9 45.7 45.3 45.8 41.1 40.4 36.8 1956 60.2 58.2 57.2 55.9 51.2 47.7 44.2 51.5 55.5 52.7 55.0 52.7 1955 63.0 67.8 67.5 68.7 69.5 63.3 66.2 64.8 62.4 63.7 62.0 65.6 1954 37.4 40.7 44.7 47.7 50.1 52.1 51.7 48.6 53.5 58.2 58.8 63.8 1953 59.4 55.4 50.5 51.1 48.9 48.5 46.3 43.5 40.2 37.4 36.9 35.6 1952 44.7 41.8 40.0 36.7 39.5 43.3 48.3 60.4 56.1 56.2 56.8 55.8 1951 67.8 69.3 65.5 53.5 50.7 45.5 42.1 43.6 48.1 49.6 47.2 46.5 1950 59.1 60.5 62.1 68.1 74.7 76.6 77.5 75.8 68.1 59.2 63.1 67.1 1949 32.9 31.3 34.5 35.3 32.6 31.6 39.0 47.0 52.3 51.0 51.0 57.3 1948 51.7 50.2 43.3 45.4 49.5 53.0 48.4 45.1 42.1 47.2 42.4 35.0
Purchasing Manager's Index ("ISM") -
A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector; above 50, expansion.
Just how unusual was last month's sub-40 level?
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2008 50.7 48.3 48.6 48.6 49.6 50.2 50.0 49.9 43.5 38.9 2007 49.3 51.5 50.7 52.8 52.8 53.4 52.3 51.2 50.5 50.4 50.0 48.4 2006 54.8 55.0 54.3 55.9 53.8 52.7 53.4 53.5 51.9 51.1 49.7 51.5 2005 56.6 54.4 54.8 52.5 51.0 52.9 54.3 51.9 56.6 57.3 56.3 54.4 2004 60.8 59.9 60.6 60.6 61.4 60.5 59.9 58.5 57.4 56.3 56.2 57.2 2003 51.3 48.8 46.3 46.1 49.0 49.0 51.0 53.2 52.4 55.2 58.4 60.1 2002 47.5 50.7 52.4 52.4 53.1 53.6 50.2 50.3 50.5 49.0 48.5 51.6 2001 42.3 42.1 43.1 42.7 41.3 43.2 43.5 46.3 46.2 40.8 44.1 45.3 2000 56.7 55.8 54.9 54.7 53.2 51.4 52.5 49.9 49.7 48.7 48.5 43.9 1999 50.6 51.7 52.4 52.3 54.3 55.8 53.6 54.8 57.0 57.2 58.1 57.8 1998 53.8 52.9 52.9 52.2 50.9 48.9 49.2 49.3 48.7 48.7 48.2 46.8 1997 53.8 53.1 53.8 53.7 56.1 54.9 57.7 56.3 53.9 56.4 55.7 54.5 1996 45.5 45.9 46.9 49.3 49.1 53.6 49.7 51.6 51.1 50.5 53.0 55.2 1995 57.4 55.1 52.1 51.5 46.7 45.9 50.7 47.1 48.1 46.7 45.9 46.2 1994 56.0 56.5 56.9 57.4 58.2 58.8 58.5 58.0 59.0 59.4 59.2 56.1 1993 55.8 55.2 53.5 50.2 51.2 49.6 50.2 50.7 50.8 53.4 53.8 55.6 1992 47.3 52.7 54.6 52.6 55.7 53.6 53.9 53.4 49.7 50.3 53.6 54.2 1991 39.2 39.4 40.7 42.8 44.5 50.3 50.6 52.9 54.9 53.1 49.5 46.8 1990 47.2 49.1 49.9 50.0 49.5 49.2 46.6 46.1 44.5 43.2 41.3 40.8 1989 54.7 54.1 51.5 52.2 49.3 47.3 45.9 45.1 46.0 46.8 46.8 47.4 1988 57.5 56.2 54.6 55.8 55.5 59.3 58.2 56.0 54.6 55.5 55.6 56.0 1987 54.9 52.6 55.0 55.5 57.2 57.4 57.5 59.3 60.1 60.7 58.8 61.0 1986 51.2 51.0 51.0 49.7 53.4 50.5 48.0 52.6 52.4 51.2 51.2 50.5 1985 50.3 49.9 47.8 48.2 47.1 47.8 47.9 47.7 49.9 50.9 52.0 50.7 1984 60.5 61.3 58.9 61.0 58.6 58.1 56.1 53.0 50.0 50.8 50.3 50.6 1983 46.0 54.4 53.9 54.2 56.1 57.5 63.6 63.1 62.5 64.4 66.0 69.9 1982 38.2 38.3 36.8 37.8 35.5 38.3 38.4 38.3 38.8 39.4 39.2 42.8 1981 49.2 48.8 49.6 51.6 53.5 50.7 46.7 48.3 42.5 40.0 36.1 37.8 1980 46.2 50.2 43.6 37.4 29.4 30.3 35.0 45.5 50.1 55.5 58.2 53.0 1979 58.5 58.2 57.7 56.2 54.4 52.7 51.3 49.5 49.6 49.0 48.0 44.8 1978 57.4 55.9 55.0 57.7 60.2 60.5 62.2 60.3 60.5 60.1 61.3 59.4 1977 54.8 55.0 58.4 56.9 59.7 56.8 57.7 54.9 53.9 55.4 56.1 59.8 1976 58.8 61.5 58.4 60.6 58.8 58.2 55.9 54.5 53.6 53.5 51.7 56.6 1975 30.7 34.4 31.6 37.5 41.2 45.1 47.2 51.4 54.4 55.5 54.5 54.9 1974 62.1 58.6 61.8 59.9 55.7 54.7 54.8 52.9 46.2 42.7 37.9 30.9 1973 72.1 69.6 69.6 67.7 64.8 65.0 57.8 62.7 63.5 66.2 68.1 63.6 1972 59.6 60.6 59.8 59.3 61.4 58.6 60.1 61.7 65.1 67.0 69.9 70.5 1971 47.9 54.8 51.2 54.5 54.2 53.8 54.4 53.6 55.1 55.0 52.3 57.6 1970 48.7 47.4 46.9 45.0 47.2 51.1 49.5 47.3 44.1 42.4 39.7 45.4 1969 54.9 57.0 57.1 55.2 56.7 55.5 53.1 54.8 54.1 54.6 53.2 52.0 1968 56.6 55.0 53.8 58.0 55.3 53.5 54.1 52.7 51.8 55.8 58.1 56.1 1967 49.1 47.6 45.3 42.8 44.5 46.8 49.5 52.2 54.9 54.1 54.2 55.6 1966 65.8 65.5 65.7 64.2 57.7 59.0 60.3 58.5 58.7 57.2 53.7 52.4 1965 61.0 62.1 64.9 62.0 61.3 58.7 58.1 58.1 61.0 58.6 59.4 62.8 1964 57.1 57.9 60.2 59.2 58.7 60.1 62.9 63.3 63.3 60.7 61.8 62.4 1963 55.2 55.1 54.7 57.6 59.8 58.2 55.5 55.1 56.9 57.7 57.5 54.0 1962 60.9 61.1 60.6 55.1 52.2 50.8 51.0 49.5 50.0 51.2 53.8 57.2 1961 43.9 43.6 49.1 57.6 58.9 58.1 58.2 60.7 63.0 62.2 59.0 64.2 1960 61.5 52.3 47.8 45.3 42.6 44.4 43.7 47.6 45.4 46.0 44.3 44.3 1959 64.4 66.9 67.1 66.9 68.2 64.4 61.5 55.1 48.3 49.7 50.6 58.2 1958 33.4 37.2 39.8 39.1 46.6 51.4 54.7 57.3 59.8 62.3 62.7 60.5 1957 53.6 51.0 47.5 43.1 43.4 45.9 45.7 45.3 45.8 41.1 40.4 36.8 1956 60.2 58.2 57.2 55.9 51.2 47.7 44.2 51.5 55.5 52.7 55.0 52.7 1955 63.0 67.8 67.5 68.7 69.5 63.3 66.2 64.8 62.4 63.7 62.0 65.6 1954 37.4 40.7 44.7 47.7 50.1 52.1 51.7 48.6 53.5 58.2 58.8 63.8 1953 59.4 55.4 50.5 51.1 48.9 48.5 46.3 43.5 40.2 37.4 36.9 35.6 1952 44.7 41.8 40.0 36.7 39.5 43.3 48.3 60.4 56.1 56.2 56.8 55.8 1951 67.8 69.3 65.5 53.5 50.7 45.5 42.1 43.6 48.1 49.6 47.2 46.5 1950 59.1 60.5 62.1 68.1 74.7 76.6 77.5 75.8 68.1 59.2 63.1 67.1 1949 32.9 31.3 34.5 35.3 32.6 31.6 39.0 47.0 52.3 51.0 51.0 57.3 1948 51.7 50.2 43.3 45.4 49.5 53.0 48.4 45.1 42.1 47.2 42.4 35.0
Purchasing Manager's Index ("ISM") -
A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector; above 50, expansion.