Back from the mother fucking dead: MLB Preview 2007
Alright folks, you know the drill. Here we go.
Five biggest questions of the 2007 season.
-Is this the Cubs year?
In all honesty, don't we ask this every year? Each year, the Cubs go into the season with high expectations, and every year, we fans get disappointed. Is this year going to be different? Well, it very well could be. Mark Prior and Kerry Wood are both, yet again, healthy. Hopefully, it stays that way, and Prior can win 15 games, and Wood can dominate the ninth inning. Chicago added pitching, which should provide them with substantial depth in their starting rotation. Neal Cotts, Ted Lilly, and Jason Marquis should make positive contributions. I'm sure Cotts will hold his own in the 7th inning, while Lilly and Marquis both hover around .500 record/4.50 ERA seasons. Respectable. Alfonso Soriano is going to be huge. The guy has plenty of protection in the line-up, with Ramirez, Barret, and Lee. He's going to hit around .300, maybe flirt with a 40/40 season. He's definitely going to be in the MVP conversation. However, I think new manager Lou Pinella is going to pay the biggest dividends. Flat out, Lou wants to win now. He's not in it to be successful in three years. He doesn't want the Wild Card birth. He wants the NL Central title this season. Lou is going to change the team's attitude. He's going to want to play small ball, steal bases, execute smart pitching match-ups, and want his team to produce runs without relying on the long ball.
-Daisuke Matsuzaka: What will he do?
For me, this is going to be the guy to watch. He is going to make or break the Red Sox season. Not their lack of a closer, not the health of Curt Schilling, and not Manny *sigh*... being Manny. It's Dice-K. This guy isn't a rookie, like most people may believe. He's coming over from Japan with a plethora of experience. He absolutely embarrassed the rest of the world in the WBC with his dominating stuff. The guy has an electric fastball, great movement on his breaking stuff, and of course, the mysterious "gyroball". His record is 108-60 for the Seibu Lions in Japan, as well as an ERA under 3. This guy will be phenomenal, period.
-Will the Mets' starting pitching problems be solved?
In short, no. I can't believe people actually think that a team with such a weak starting rotation, they're going to walk through the much improved NL. It's just not going to happen. You can't rely on Pedro Martinez. You just can't anymore. He can't stay healthy. You have Tom Glavine, a 40-something guy just staying active to get win #300. You have John Maine, who still needs to mature. After that, what do you have? El Duke? Yawn. Chan Ho Park? He's hit or miss. Oliver Perez? Ummm, in his last outing, he hit a camera man with a pitch. Too bad the Mets can't toss their bull pen out there for nine innings in each game.
-Will Alex Rodriguez end the season in pinstripes?
To me, when you have this much tension in a club house, it just can't be good for chemistry. There has been irrefutable chatter from both A-Rod and Yankee's officials that he may not be the right fit for the Yankees. I honestly think they're doing him an injustice by not letting him go. The only reason he continually says that he wants to play in New York is because he wants to prove that he's an elite player. Alex, you have nothing to prove. You're a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer, without question. You're on your way of breaking Hank Aaron's (hopefully not Barry Bond's) home run record. The fact that Yankees' fans think that a .290/35/121 season is "bad" is just ridiculous. Again, this is only being said because he wasn't the Yankee's savior last October. The fact is, the Yankees simply weren't good enough. They clearly weren't the best team in the bigs at any point last year. Trust me, any of the other 29 teams in the majors would love to have his services. The guy is playing out of position, in a hostile environment. Sure, he still hasn't proved that he can blow the fences down in October, but that doesn't mean that he's not a legend. Is Tony Gwynn any less of a player because he doesn't have a World Series ring? Didn't think so.
-Who will be this year's Detroit Tigers
Two teams instantly come to mind: the Toronto Blue Jays and Florida Marlins. If Roy Halliday and A.J. Burnett can both stay healthy, the rest of the Jay's starting rotation of Gustavio Chacin, Tomo Okha, and either Casey Janssen or Shaun Marcum should be able to pitch well enough to get them in position to win the Wild Card. They have some offensive firepower with Troy Glaus, Vernon Wells, and Frank Thomas, as well as a proven closer in B.J. Ryan. Besides the Yankees and Red Sox, no other teams in the AL seem like clear cut winners to make it into the playoffs.
The Marlins were so exciting to watch last season. I wanted them to get into the playoffs more then anything. Not just because they're a small market team who just flat out know how to scout talent, but because they play baseball the right way. They execute on the base paths. They move runners, they play defense, they steal bases. Their amount of young talent is just ridiculous. Currently, they only have two players on their active rosters over 30, WOW! Miguel Cabrera is going to play like an MVP again and further solidify himself as a 150+ million dollar player. Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Scott Olsen, Josh Willingham, Josh Johnson and Annibel Sanchez all have some big league experience under their belts, and should all improve substantially. With a great core of young pitchers, a superstar in Cabrera leading the way, and a young manager in Fredi Gonzalez who is hungry to win, I expect the Marlins to be in it all year. Maybe they won't win the World Series, but they definitely have the talent to surprise everyone.
Season Predictions
Individual Player Awards
Most Valuable Player
American League: David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox: .306 BA, 41 HR, 129 RBIs
National League: Carlos Beltran, New York Mets: .314 BA, 35 HR, 121 RIBs, 119 R, GOLD GLOVE
Cy Young Award
American League: Chien-Ming Wang, New York Yankees: 20-5, 3.32 ERA, 145 K, 1.10 WHIP
National League: Carlos Zambrano, Chicago Cubs: 18-5, 2.79 ERA, 255K, 1.17 WHIP
Rookie of the Year
American League: Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston Red Sox: 16-6, 3.02 ERA, 187 K, 1.20 WHIP
National League: Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds: 13-7, 3.30 ERA, 178 K, 1.32 WHIP
Rolaid's Relief Man
American League: Bob Jenks, Chicago White Sox: 2-2, 1.29 ERA, 43 saves
National League: Billy Wagner, New York Mets: 4-1, 2.30 ERA, 46 saves
Team Predictions
National League
East winner: New York Mets, 90 wins
Central winner: Chicago Cubs, 94 wins
West winner: San Diego Padres, 86 wins
Wild Card: Florida Marlins, 85 wins
American League
East winner: Boston Red Sox, 97 wins
Central winner: Chicago White Sox: 89 wins
West winner: Anaheim Angels, 93 wins
Wild Card: New York Yankees, 92 wins
Playoffs
Cubs over Marlins
Mets over Padres
Cubs over Mets
Red Sox over White Sox
Yankees over Angels
Red Sox over Yankees
Red Sox over Cubs in 5
Although... I'd like to see some of this change, I'm going with my gut. We'll see.
Five biggest questions of the 2007 season.
-Is this the Cubs year?
In all honesty, don't we ask this every year? Each year, the Cubs go into the season with high expectations, and every year, we fans get disappointed. Is this year going to be different? Well, it very well could be. Mark Prior and Kerry Wood are both, yet again, healthy. Hopefully, it stays that way, and Prior can win 15 games, and Wood can dominate the ninth inning. Chicago added pitching, which should provide them with substantial depth in their starting rotation. Neal Cotts, Ted Lilly, and Jason Marquis should make positive contributions. I'm sure Cotts will hold his own in the 7th inning, while Lilly and Marquis both hover around .500 record/4.50 ERA seasons. Respectable. Alfonso Soriano is going to be huge. The guy has plenty of protection in the line-up, with Ramirez, Barret, and Lee. He's going to hit around .300, maybe flirt with a 40/40 season. He's definitely going to be in the MVP conversation. However, I think new manager Lou Pinella is going to pay the biggest dividends. Flat out, Lou wants to win now. He's not in it to be successful in three years. He doesn't want the Wild Card birth. He wants the NL Central title this season. Lou is going to change the team's attitude. He's going to want to play small ball, steal bases, execute smart pitching match-ups, and want his team to produce runs without relying on the long ball.
-Daisuke Matsuzaka: What will he do?
For me, this is going to be the guy to watch. He is going to make or break the Red Sox season. Not their lack of a closer, not the health of Curt Schilling, and not Manny *sigh*... being Manny. It's Dice-K. This guy isn't a rookie, like most people may believe. He's coming over from Japan with a plethora of experience. He absolutely embarrassed the rest of the world in the WBC with his dominating stuff. The guy has an electric fastball, great movement on his breaking stuff, and of course, the mysterious "gyroball". His record is 108-60 for the Seibu Lions in Japan, as well as an ERA under 3. This guy will be phenomenal, period.
-Will the Mets' starting pitching problems be solved?
In short, no. I can't believe people actually think that a team with such a weak starting rotation, they're going to walk through the much improved NL. It's just not going to happen. You can't rely on Pedro Martinez. You just can't anymore. He can't stay healthy. You have Tom Glavine, a 40-something guy just staying active to get win #300. You have John Maine, who still needs to mature. After that, what do you have? El Duke? Yawn. Chan Ho Park? He's hit or miss. Oliver Perez? Ummm, in his last outing, he hit a camera man with a pitch. Too bad the Mets can't toss their bull pen out there for nine innings in each game.
-Will Alex Rodriguez end the season in pinstripes?
To me, when you have this much tension in a club house, it just can't be good for chemistry. There has been irrefutable chatter from both A-Rod and Yankee's officials that he may not be the right fit for the Yankees. I honestly think they're doing him an injustice by not letting him go. The only reason he continually says that he wants to play in New York is because he wants to prove that he's an elite player. Alex, you have nothing to prove. You're a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer, without question. You're on your way of breaking Hank Aaron's (hopefully not Barry Bond's) home run record. The fact that Yankees' fans think that a .290/35/121 season is "bad" is just ridiculous. Again, this is only being said because he wasn't the Yankee's savior last October. The fact is, the Yankees simply weren't good enough. They clearly weren't the best team in the bigs at any point last year. Trust me, any of the other 29 teams in the majors would love to have his services. The guy is playing out of position, in a hostile environment. Sure, he still hasn't proved that he can blow the fences down in October, but that doesn't mean that he's not a legend. Is Tony Gwynn any less of a player because he doesn't have a World Series ring? Didn't think so.
-Who will be this year's Detroit Tigers
Two teams instantly come to mind: the Toronto Blue Jays and Florida Marlins. If Roy Halliday and A.J. Burnett can both stay healthy, the rest of the Jay's starting rotation of Gustavio Chacin, Tomo Okha, and either Casey Janssen or Shaun Marcum should be able to pitch well enough to get them in position to win the Wild Card. They have some offensive firepower with Troy Glaus, Vernon Wells, and Frank Thomas, as well as a proven closer in B.J. Ryan. Besides the Yankees and Red Sox, no other teams in the AL seem like clear cut winners to make it into the playoffs.
The Marlins were so exciting to watch last season. I wanted them to get into the playoffs more then anything. Not just because they're a small market team who just flat out know how to scout talent, but because they play baseball the right way. They execute on the base paths. They move runners, they play defense, they steal bases. Their amount of young talent is just ridiculous. Currently, they only have two players on their active rosters over 30, WOW! Miguel Cabrera is going to play like an MVP again and further solidify himself as a 150+ million dollar player. Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Scott Olsen, Josh Willingham, Josh Johnson and Annibel Sanchez all have some big league experience under their belts, and should all improve substantially. With a great core of young pitchers, a superstar in Cabrera leading the way, and a young manager in Fredi Gonzalez who is hungry to win, I expect the Marlins to be in it all year. Maybe they won't win the World Series, but they definitely have the talent to surprise everyone.
Season Predictions
Individual Player Awards
Most Valuable Player
American League: David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox: .306 BA, 41 HR, 129 RBIs
National League: Carlos Beltran, New York Mets: .314 BA, 35 HR, 121 RIBs, 119 R, GOLD GLOVE
Cy Young Award
American League: Chien-Ming Wang, New York Yankees: 20-5, 3.32 ERA, 145 K, 1.10 WHIP
National League: Carlos Zambrano, Chicago Cubs: 18-5, 2.79 ERA, 255K, 1.17 WHIP
Rookie of the Year
American League: Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston Red Sox: 16-6, 3.02 ERA, 187 K, 1.20 WHIP
National League: Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds: 13-7, 3.30 ERA, 178 K, 1.32 WHIP
Rolaid's Relief Man
American League: Bob Jenks, Chicago White Sox: 2-2, 1.29 ERA, 43 saves
National League: Billy Wagner, New York Mets: 4-1, 2.30 ERA, 46 saves
Team Predictions
National League
East winner: New York Mets, 90 wins
Central winner: Chicago Cubs, 94 wins
West winner: San Diego Padres, 86 wins
Wild Card: Florida Marlins, 85 wins
American League
East winner: Boston Red Sox, 97 wins
Central winner: Chicago White Sox: 89 wins
West winner: Anaheim Angels, 93 wins
Wild Card: New York Yankees, 92 wins
Playoffs
Cubs over Marlins
Mets over Padres
Cubs over Mets
Red Sox over White Sox
Yankees over Angels
Red Sox over Yankees
Red Sox over Cubs in 5
Although... I'd like to see some of this change, I'm going with my gut. We'll see.