A betrayed peninsula
There's hardly a leader or politician left in the West Balkans, and "even wider" (as the Macedonians like to say), who's not willing to shout to Brussels: "Give me my European perspective back!" Indeed, there's wide-spread criticism to EU's behavior to our region coming from all countries in the vicinity. What's more, there are also warnings already. Warnings that if the Euro bureaucrats keep turning the other way to the recent events in Europe's so called "powder keg", Europe could soon be served a whole portion of new conflicts, problems, crises, and even hot wars in one form or another.
That's the context we could use for interpreting a short remark from the other day, made to Brussels by Albanian prime minister Edi Rama. The same Edi Rama who's been rumored to be the patron of the so called "Tirana platform", directing three of the ethnic Albanian political parties in Macedonia, which is being used as argument by the Macedonian politicians to resist the temptation of forming a government together with the Albanians. So, Edi Rama said the other day that if the EU doesn't give a clear sign for a European path to Albania, he wouldn't rule out his country uniting with Kosovo.
Tirana and Pristina have craved such an outcome for a while, although their respective politicians have refrained from stating it openly so far. They simply don't need to. The notion is just ingrained in the mind of every Albanian, wherever they were born. But pronounced in this open manner, Rama's threat was inevitably going to, or indeed, perhaps was meant to cause a sharp reaction from Belgrade. Serbia still views Kosovo as part of itself, unilaterally removed from its territory with the support of the international community and mainly the US, who've done this mostly out of geopolitical expedience, rather than sympathy for the big almond eyes of the Albanians (the latter have caused all sorts of trouble in Europe through the years - arms, drugs and human trafficking, and other sort of organized crime).
Granted, some Albanian analysts have said Rama's words were taken out of context, and I must admit a more careful read of his entire interview at Politico may give reasons for such a conclusion. But it's also true that for months, Rama has been under tremendous opposition pressure, which reached such extent that his political opponents from the Democratic Party were considering boycotting the parliamentary elections in June. This has forced the government to extend the deadline for party registrations for the election, which has given additional chance to the main opposition party to re-think their stance and register.
Whatever the case, Rama's hints about a possible Albanian-Kosovar unification sounds nothing short of dangerous. What's more, while Brussels was still wondering how to respond to the Albanian PM, he was joined by Kosovo's strong man, president Hashim Thaci. He said that if the EU shuts its door to Kosovo, all Albanians in the region will have to live in a single country in order to continue their further integration into the European family. This gave some Serbian ministers a reason to criticize EU's silence on the matter, reading all this as a sign that the idea of Great Albania is being taken out of the closet once again (see map above). And Serbian PM and now newly elected president, Aleksandar Vucic has shown some black himor and suggested he would probably be hanged on one of the flag pylons at EU's headquarters in Brussels if he just ever dared suggest that all Serbs should live in a single country (i.e. if he revived the idea of Great Serbia). In turn, Serbian social minister Aleksandar Vulin said that such a unification of the Albanians in the region could only happen through another big Balkan War.
There's something else. In the last few years, Albania has re-packaged the idea of united Albania and made it sound in a modern way. It goes like this. You see, all Albanians, wherever they are, should live in EU member states. If they live in a country engulfed by EU territory, not bordering on external states, uniting all Albanians would be easier, no matter if the whole thing is called Great Albania or just All Albanians Together in the EU. The term "Great Albania" is free to go into history, but the Albanians' ambition to live together within the European family would still practically be realized.
This Albanian-Serbian struggle of course comes at the expense of the EU, and it's going to be one of the major aspects of the international situation in the region for years to come. The West Balkans have a long history of being tossed around from one corner to the other and back by their neighbors, but so far their leaders have been able to mitigate most conflicts and maintain somewhat friendly (or at least restrained) relations with their neighbors, grasping at the promise that this would somehow grant them bonus points in a potential future Euro integration process. And Brussels was pretty active in maintaining this notion that the future of all countries in the West Balkans was ultimately with the EU. There were plenty of verbal and political signs and gestures in this direction, and also specific aid in solving some issues of contention, and back-patting of local politicians by EU bureaucrats, whenever the former showed signs of putting their past behind themselves, and opening new horizons to their countries and the region as a whole.
It was exactly because he wanted to test the limits of this strategy that Edi Rama visited Serbia about 3 years ago, and met with Vucic. His visit was the first in 64 years of frozen relations between the two countries. Later Vucic returned the visit, although he did try to look angry and insulted that during the press conference in Belgrade after the bilateral talks, his guest had mentioned Kosovo's independence (a topic that the Serbs don't fancy having shoved into their faces). Still, in the name of the two countries' European future, the two prime ministers tried to keep a nice and neat neighborly dynamic, without sparing each other their disagreements of course, but also without crossing the red line that would toss them back into a downward spiral. Because both of them, socialist Rama and moderate nationalist Vucic, had declared that they're pro-European, and they'd do anything in the name of their countries' EU integration.
But now, with its silence in the wake of Rama's threat and Serbia's reaction, the EU seems to be losing its credibility and authority of an arbiter which it used to have in solving some internal political and neighborly crises in the region. And this isn't just because of the peculiarities of the character of specific politicians, or the conflusion and internal discord that now reigns within the EU itself about the further integration of new countries.
I mean, just look at Macedonia. For years, they used to swear that the EU membership was their strategic goal, and any political decisions their governments would ever make would be either under EU's supervision or with the direct involvement of EU's bureaucrats. The EU representative in Skopje, Erwin Fouere for example was de facto one of the two governors of Macedonia for a time, along with the US ambassador of course. It was with the active mediation of these two diplomats that the famous Przino Agreement was signed between the 4 major political parties in the country, 2 Macedonian and 2 Albanian. This accord was supposed to bring Macedonia out of the deep crisis it had plunged into for years. The document was signed in the Przino neighborhood of Skopje, at the residence of the EU representative, which is where its name comes from. It was signed there for a reason. Fouere was instrumental to this arrangement.
But just about a couple years later, president Gjorge Ivanov had the audacity to refuse a meeting with EU commissioner Johannes Hahn, and disregard the recommendations of Federica Mogherini and Donald Tusk who visited him personally. He also ignored an opportunity to meet with Karl Bild, the Swedish diplomat who had previously done a huge amount of work on a number of other crises during Macedonia's tumultuous transition period. On top of all that, Ivanov joined the verbal attacks on Brussels, threatening that if the EU didn't start negotiations with Macedonia on chapters 25 and 26 (Justice, and Security, respectively), he'd seek for other paths to integration. This in turn gave birth to the rumor that the Macedonian rulers, led by VMRO-DPMNE leader Nikola Gruevski (who has refused to let go of his power no matter what) were prepared to follow some sort of Belgrade-inspired version of "regional alliance" together with Serbia and Republika Srpska in Bosnia, the latter seceding from Bosnia-Herzegovina as compensation for Kosovo. You know, scary stuff.
On one side, that's an attempt to revive some sort of "Fourth Remainder of Yugoslavia", ruled from Belgrade of course. On the other hand, as unrealistic as it may seem, and typical a rumor for provincial, backwater Skopje, all of this still gives a sign that the lack of alternatives to the EU membership is now being put in question in those circles. After all, when was the last time a Macedonian president or PM gave ultimatums and put conditions to Brussels? Personally, I can't remember such a case.
True, the EU does have problems of its own. Especially after Trump, Brexit, the migrant crisis, and all those crucial elections in major EU countries where populist nationalism is on the rise. It's evident that incorporating the new member states (mine included) is going harder than expected (or visible on the surface), and there are talks of Europe at different speeds, which the more advanced West views as a necessity while the affected East sees as betrayal, hypocrisy and discrimination. In all fairness, we should acknowledge that the EU would hardly be ready for new additions any time soon. But this can't be an excuse for sending such discouraging messages like the one that came from EC chairman Jean Claude Juncker last year, who said that the EU won't be accepting new members for the next 5 years (on a side note, curiously, the communist bloc used to have such 5-year plans which it was widely criticized and mocked about by the West, and now we're seeing the same or a similar manner of governance in the EU).
Messages like these can trim the wings even of the bravest and most resilient supporters of European integration in the West Balkans pretty badly - to disastrous consequences that would inevitably backfire on Europe itself. Because the region is now engaging in a new arms race, and the notion that a new war is inevitable, has begun to gain speed.
That's how we've come to the current state of affairs, where people are now openly talking of an emerging political vacuum in the region, which Russia is too eager to fill at any cost, pushing its geopolitical rivals back and away from there, expanding its zone of influence once more. But that's nother big topic that's probably worth a whole separate post. For the time being, I'll just put it this way: it's not that the Balkans are having "too much Russia". It's just that they're having "too little Europe".
That's the context we could use for interpreting a short remark from the other day, made to Brussels by Albanian prime minister Edi Rama. The same Edi Rama who's been rumored to be the patron of the so called "Tirana platform", directing three of the ethnic Albanian political parties in Macedonia, which is being used as argument by the Macedonian politicians to resist the temptation of forming a government together with the Albanians. So, Edi Rama said the other day that if the EU doesn't give a clear sign for a European path to Albania, he wouldn't rule out his country uniting with Kosovo.
Tirana and Pristina have craved such an outcome for a while, although their respective politicians have refrained from stating it openly so far. They simply don't need to. The notion is just ingrained in the mind of every Albanian, wherever they were born. But pronounced in this open manner, Rama's threat was inevitably going to, or indeed, perhaps was meant to cause a sharp reaction from Belgrade. Serbia still views Kosovo as part of itself, unilaterally removed from its territory with the support of the international community and mainly the US, who've done this mostly out of geopolitical expedience, rather than sympathy for the big almond eyes of the Albanians (the latter have caused all sorts of trouble in Europe through the years - arms, drugs and human trafficking, and other sort of organized crime).
Granted, some Albanian analysts have said Rama's words were taken out of context, and I must admit a more careful read of his entire interview at Politico may give reasons for such a conclusion. But it's also true that for months, Rama has been under tremendous opposition pressure, which reached such extent that his political opponents from the Democratic Party were considering boycotting the parliamentary elections in June. This has forced the government to extend the deadline for party registrations for the election, which has given additional chance to the main opposition party to re-think their stance and register.
Whatever the case, Rama's hints about a possible Albanian-Kosovar unification sounds nothing short of dangerous. What's more, while Brussels was still wondering how to respond to the Albanian PM, he was joined by Kosovo's strong man, president Hashim Thaci. He said that if the EU shuts its door to Kosovo, all Albanians in the region will have to live in a single country in order to continue their further integration into the European family. This gave some Serbian ministers a reason to criticize EU's silence on the matter, reading all this as a sign that the idea of Great Albania is being taken out of the closet once again (see map above). And Serbian PM and now newly elected president, Aleksandar Vucic has shown some black himor and suggested he would probably be hanged on one of the flag pylons at EU's headquarters in Brussels if he just ever dared suggest that all Serbs should live in a single country (i.e. if he revived the idea of Great Serbia). In turn, Serbian social minister Aleksandar Vulin said that such a unification of the Albanians in the region could only happen through another big Balkan War.
There's something else. In the last few years, Albania has re-packaged the idea of united Albania and made it sound in a modern way. It goes like this. You see, all Albanians, wherever they are, should live in EU member states. If they live in a country engulfed by EU territory, not bordering on external states, uniting all Albanians would be easier, no matter if the whole thing is called Great Albania or just All Albanians Together in the EU. The term "Great Albania" is free to go into history, but the Albanians' ambition to live together within the European family would still practically be realized.
This Albanian-Serbian struggle of course comes at the expense of the EU, and it's going to be one of the major aspects of the international situation in the region for years to come. The West Balkans have a long history of being tossed around from one corner to the other and back by their neighbors, but so far their leaders have been able to mitigate most conflicts and maintain somewhat friendly (or at least restrained) relations with their neighbors, grasping at the promise that this would somehow grant them bonus points in a potential future Euro integration process. And Brussels was pretty active in maintaining this notion that the future of all countries in the West Balkans was ultimately with the EU. There were plenty of verbal and political signs and gestures in this direction, and also specific aid in solving some issues of contention, and back-patting of local politicians by EU bureaucrats, whenever the former showed signs of putting their past behind themselves, and opening new horizons to their countries and the region as a whole.
It was exactly because he wanted to test the limits of this strategy that Edi Rama visited Serbia about 3 years ago, and met with Vucic. His visit was the first in 64 years of frozen relations between the two countries. Later Vucic returned the visit, although he did try to look angry and insulted that during the press conference in Belgrade after the bilateral talks, his guest had mentioned Kosovo's independence (a topic that the Serbs don't fancy having shoved into their faces). Still, in the name of the two countries' European future, the two prime ministers tried to keep a nice and neat neighborly dynamic, without sparing each other their disagreements of course, but also without crossing the red line that would toss them back into a downward spiral. Because both of them, socialist Rama and moderate nationalist Vucic, had declared that they're pro-European, and they'd do anything in the name of their countries' EU integration.
But now, with its silence in the wake of Rama's threat and Serbia's reaction, the EU seems to be losing its credibility and authority of an arbiter which it used to have in solving some internal political and neighborly crises in the region. And this isn't just because of the peculiarities of the character of specific politicians, or the conflusion and internal discord that now reigns within the EU itself about the further integration of new countries.
I mean, just look at Macedonia. For years, they used to swear that the EU membership was their strategic goal, and any political decisions their governments would ever make would be either under EU's supervision or with the direct involvement of EU's bureaucrats. The EU representative in Skopje, Erwin Fouere for example was de facto one of the two governors of Macedonia for a time, along with the US ambassador of course. It was with the active mediation of these two diplomats that the famous Przino Agreement was signed between the 4 major political parties in the country, 2 Macedonian and 2 Albanian. This accord was supposed to bring Macedonia out of the deep crisis it had plunged into for years. The document was signed in the Przino neighborhood of Skopje, at the residence of the EU representative, which is where its name comes from. It was signed there for a reason. Fouere was instrumental to this arrangement.
But just about a couple years later, president Gjorge Ivanov had the audacity to refuse a meeting with EU commissioner Johannes Hahn, and disregard the recommendations of Federica Mogherini and Donald Tusk who visited him personally. He also ignored an opportunity to meet with Karl Bild, the Swedish diplomat who had previously done a huge amount of work on a number of other crises during Macedonia's tumultuous transition period. On top of all that, Ivanov joined the verbal attacks on Brussels, threatening that if the EU didn't start negotiations with Macedonia on chapters 25 and 26 (Justice, and Security, respectively), he'd seek for other paths to integration. This in turn gave birth to the rumor that the Macedonian rulers, led by VMRO-DPMNE leader Nikola Gruevski (who has refused to let go of his power no matter what) were prepared to follow some sort of Belgrade-inspired version of "regional alliance" together with Serbia and Republika Srpska in Bosnia, the latter seceding from Bosnia-Herzegovina as compensation for Kosovo. You know, scary stuff.
On one side, that's an attempt to revive some sort of "Fourth Remainder of Yugoslavia", ruled from Belgrade of course. On the other hand, as unrealistic as it may seem, and typical a rumor for provincial, backwater Skopje, all of this still gives a sign that the lack of alternatives to the EU membership is now being put in question in those circles. After all, when was the last time a Macedonian president or PM gave ultimatums and put conditions to Brussels? Personally, I can't remember such a case.
True, the EU does have problems of its own. Especially after Trump, Brexit, the migrant crisis, and all those crucial elections in major EU countries where populist nationalism is on the rise. It's evident that incorporating the new member states (mine included) is going harder than expected (or visible on the surface), and there are talks of Europe at different speeds, which the more advanced West views as a necessity while the affected East sees as betrayal, hypocrisy and discrimination. In all fairness, we should acknowledge that the EU would hardly be ready for new additions any time soon. But this can't be an excuse for sending such discouraging messages like the one that came from EC chairman Jean Claude Juncker last year, who said that the EU won't be accepting new members for the next 5 years (on a side note, curiously, the communist bloc used to have such 5-year plans which it was widely criticized and mocked about by the West, and now we're seeing the same or a similar manner of governance in the EU).
Messages like these can trim the wings even of the bravest and most resilient supporters of European integration in the West Balkans pretty badly - to disastrous consequences that would inevitably backfire on Europe itself. Because the region is now engaging in a new arms race, and the notion that a new war is inevitable, has begun to gain speed.
That's how we've come to the current state of affairs, where people are now openly talking of an emerging political vacuum in the region, which Russia is too eager to fill at any cost, pushing its geopolitical rivals back and away from there, expanding its zone of influence once more. But that's nother big topic that's probably worth a whole separate post. For the time being, I'll just put it this way: it's not that the Balkans are having "too much Russia". It's just that they're having "too little Europe".