Catching Pikachu

Aug 04, 2016 16:03

"Clinton is candidate for president, they're airing Tarzan in the theatres, and everyone's playing Pokemon. Welcome to 2001". That's the caption below a cartoon that's been circulating the webs lately. And all three of these statements are still valid today, in 2016. Just like 15 years ago, the Pokemons are again the latest fad - this time through Pokemon Go.

Most of us must have noticed by now that some folks tend to wander around, looking into their cellphones while they walk. Not all of them are texting or Facebooking (sic?) Many are actually hunting for pokemons. You know, those fabled creatures - water, fire, electric little thingies that look like foxes, turtles, kittens, little dwaggins or just weird-shaped clouds. They came to life back in the 90s, but the new smartphone version is now re-conquering the world once more. Last month Pokemon Go beat the previous record with 21 million active subscribers daily, and it was installed on 5% of all Android devices in the US just within the first 2 days of its existence. Fierce ink-spilling and spittle-spewing ensue on the matter. The debates are still raging in places as far away apart as Oz, NZ, Asia and the Euros. After this terrific start though, the question arises, is this going to be another huge success, or the umpteenth balloon that is sure to go bust pretty soon?



The Niantic Labs developers are behind all this. It's a small company that last year splintered from Alphabet Inc (ie from Google). There's some participation from Nintendo, and Pokemon Company (the former owning 1/3 of the latter's shares), plus Niantic itself (where both the former own shares). The game is available for iOS and Android (not for Windows, though), the subscriber signing up via Google or through a special account, and then setting off around the streets of town in search of the little imaginary critters. The phone tracks the user's movements through GPS and works pretty well with specially setup maps that were ganked from Niantic's previous game Ingress - using Google Maps, ultimately. The objective is to collect pokemons and upon reaching a certain level, train those creatures in so called pokemon gyms, cooperating with other team-mates against the rival pokemon factions.

Basically, when the user encounters a pokemon, the phone switches into virtual map mode (augmented reality), which integrates digital info with RL environment. Niantic has already used this tech before in Ingress. So the user sees the pokemon on their screen, juxtaposed against the real background. Although that's the most prominent feature of the game, it's actually used only for a little while - although users around the world do tend to enjoy making selfies with the weird critters sitting on their desks, standing next to them on the street, or perched on some stranger's shoulder, etc. Due to the augmented reality, the game has gained huge popularity in the social networks, where the players post tons of pics of pokemons with real-life background.



Some say the use of AR tech in Pokemon Go could be a game-changer for the technological world. Forbes jokingly points out that the game could spawn multiple dating and shared-sports apps, the Pokemon brand potentially making them more appealing. Business News Daily argues the augmented reality could also enhance work, and be used for virtual biz meetings, where employees could be present virtually and participate more actively in the working process. What's more, the augmented reality uses internal design software, so the interior industry could save money for RL showrooms, while customers could check if furniture sizes fit to their needs without even visiting a shop. So far, people have been rather skeptical about the merging of real with virtual reality, but Pokemon Go has shown that AR could actually fit into everyday life rather than trying to replace it.

As nerdy as it may look at a first glance, Pokemon Go has had tremendous success in the first few weeks of its existence. Many are now naturally asking themselves if this success is long-term or just a temporary fad. The game first showed up in the US in early July, and it instantly conquered the market. Just a few hours after it was launched online, it became the most downloaded app and the first game to ever achieve such turnout. The number of tweets Re: Pokemon Go by far exceeded that on the Brexit vote for the first week of their respective trending, and beat those about the UEFA Euro Cup by orders of magnitude, according to Spredfast data.

Then the app also appeared in Oz and NZ, and a couple of weeks ago it took the European markets by storm. Although it was supposed to officially show up only recently, the game was available at an alternative download link well in advance. There've already been Pokemon Go summits arranged in various cities across the world, mostly organised via FB, tens of thousands of people gathering in public places to play together - at times even stampeding to get to the rarest of pokemons.



So how do its creators make money out of this hysteria? Apart from its popularity which is growing like an avalanche, it has brought a $7.5bn spike in Nintendo's market value within the last week alone. However, after about 10 days of climbing, its stocks lost some value in late July. The reason was the postponement of its official launch in Japan, Pokemon's original homeland.

There's an additional product that goes along with this one, Pokemon Go Plus. It's a bracelet that connects to the phone and vibrates upon approaching a rogue pokemon. The gadget costs J35, and it was sold off within hours. But the main way of profit-making out of the game is millions of micro transactions. The iOS users in the US alone spend $1.6mil daily to buy various addons, Sensor Tower analyses show. App Annie forecasts that these incomes could reach $1bn within a year.

New biz cooperations are also being forged in the process. McDonalds is now working along with Pokemon in Japan, 3000 of its fast-food restaurants will feature pokemon gyms and pokemon combat points. This partnership hints of the potential business model for Pokemon Go. The so called PokeStops (key places around town, particularly around cultural landmarks, where players could collect items for their critters) and pokemon gyms could become hugely beneficial for a number of businesses: shops, restaurants, cafes and other places of interest, as they tend to attract an influx of customers. For instance, a NYC pizzeria owner paid $10 for pokemon bait, which of course is Pokemon Go player bait. He said this resulted in a 75% increase in his income, Investopedia informs. Some businesses are already offering special discounts for Pokemon Go players, and others allow pokemon hunting on their premises, provided that the user buys something there.



Some of the success of this strategy is definitely due to the nostalgia. Pokemon first appeared some 20 years ago, which is probably why the main user base is the now grown-up kids from that time. StartApp data (which tracks over 600 million users) suggests that more than 40% of the players are over 25 y.o., about 1/3 between 25-34. In other words, the followers are largely from among those who first inhabited Pikachu's world in the times of yore. Apart from nostalgia, the partial social element is also important. Unlike standard videogames which require hours upon hours at the PC, this one encourages walking outdoors in search of pokemons. In order to hack a pokemon egg that you've collected from one of the special pokemon stops, you'd have to walk a certain distance, be it 200 or 500 m. The social networks now abound of discussions if this game is going to rid the US of its gargantuan obesity issue. I'd say hardly, but it'll certainly prompt some people to get to know their own city a bit better. If you could stay safe in the process, that is*.

Another question is, will Pokemon Go enjoy sustainable success in the long run. The income from micro transactions might look like a good move, but in order to keep them piling, the users would have to keep playing regularly - and new ones will have to join in. The charm of these town walks will also go away in time, especially given the fact that it's still high summer in the northern hemisphere and walking outdoors is okay. But will the cooler weather in autumn and winter hinder the pokemon hunters? So far it all depends on the next moves of the developers: will they move the game onto a new level, will they ad some form of direct communication between users, and all in all, how they intend to keep the current hype going.



* Right now, the main challenge to the Pokemon Go team seems to be the multiple absurdities that are part of the game. While mimicking Ash Ketchum, the protagonist of the original anime, folks could often find themselves in situations that are as funny as they could be dangerous. In the US for example, a drowned corpse was found in a river when some kid went looking for pokemons in places most awkward. Some pokemon hunters have been run over by cars or walked into street signs as they didn't look where they were going. Others have become victims of armed burglary and pickpocketing, as the relevant criminals have soon figured the PokeStops are fruitful soil for conducting their business. In Bosnia, an NGO called Posavina Bez Mina has warned Pokemon Go players to watch where they're looking for pokemons, because some could walk into mine fields remaining as legacy of the Yugoslav civil war. And still others have been shot dead for burglars as they presumably entered private property in hunt for pokemons. So be careful.

Once the safety of the users is secured (which won't be easy, given their growing number, and the random way the little nutters tend to select places to pop up), the Pokemon Go team could probably hope to hold the interest for a while longer - while still trying to stay prepared for the public's unpredictable whims. Still, what's intriguing in this case is that not only the traditional gamers but also people from all backgrounds are getting lured into this new occupation. So we should expect increasing crowds in places least expected, staring into their phones and doing weird things. And failed dictators denouncing this app as the capitalist devil's creation. Because the pokemons aren't going anywhere anytime soon.

entertainment, internet, recommended, technology, business

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