Saudis in trouble
Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud rose to the throne in Saudi Arabia about a year ago - just after the death of his brother Abdullah, who ruled over the kingdom for a decade. Many believed back then that Salman, who became king at the age of 79, woud be just an intermediary footnote in the history of his country - a set-up for the next generation of rulers, so to speak. I'm talking of the grandsons of Abdul Aziz bin Saud of course, the founder of the kingdom. It was clear right from the get-go that the transfer of power would be happening in a very difficult period for the theocratic monarchy.
Indeed, no other Saudi king had previously encountered so much trouble right from day one: wars in Syria and Yemen, highly volatile relations with Iran, a growing terrorist threat, serious economic problems, and a rising social discontent at home.
After he came to power, Salman promised his people stability and prosperity. But today we're witnessing just the opposite: almost nine months into his rule, Saudi Arabia was already at war in Yemen, and though they've been reporting of "victories" almost daily, the war is nowhere near being over. In reality, things look rather different: that conflict is taking a massive civilian death toll, the suffering of the local people is mounting, and the whole region is getting increasingly destabilized. Various international human rights organizations are lining up to accuse Saudi Arabia of blatant human rights violations, including the use of banned weapons. And other countries are feeling the burn of condemnation as well, for having amped up their arms supplies for Saudi Arabia in recent times.
Saudi Arabia's image abroad has never been this bad. The war in Syria and the conflict with Assad are threatening to turn into a huge failure for Riyadh. Despite the billions of dollars of financial aid for the various proxy rebel groups in Syria, the Saudis cannot boast of any significant success against the hated regime in Damascus. The so called moderate Syrian opposition, heavily funded by Saudi Arabia, has proven to be helpless, bitterly divided, and inefficient. Besides, it's being accused of maintaining close relations with terrorists. The whole situation in the region is more unstable than ever in the history of the Saudi kingdom.
We couldn't miss another fact as well: right now it seems the battle for supremacy between Iran and Saudi Arabia is being won by Tehran. The Sunni regime in Riyadh has done all in its powers to prevent the rise of Shia Iran, and block its return to the international stage - to no avail. After the lifting of the international sanctions, Tehran has found itself in an extremely favorable position. Not to mention that Iran exerts a huge influence in Iraq and Lebanon, and partly in Syria and Yemen. And Bahrain too.
What's more, it's logical that Iran would now expect a bright economic future, while Saudi Arabia is suffocating under a ton of problems that could increase the social tensions at home. The spoiled Saudi population that's become so used to luxury and prosperity thanks to the oil sales, will now be facing painful cuts in the months and years to come. And this is bound to generate a lot of tensions and social unrest in Salman's kingdom. The king is not helping much either in that respect, having failed to provide a satisfactory response to the serious social and economical challenges.
In the meantime, Amnesty and other international NGOs frequently insist that the state of human rights in the Saudi kingdom is catastrophic. Under Salman, things have gotten even worse. The number of executions has risen significantly in recent months, the latest example in that respect being the execution of Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr, which caused the recent new rift with Iran, as well as a wave of outrage around the world. We could also remind of the case of a blogger called Raif Badawi, who was thrown in jail on charges of "insulting Islam" - he was sentenced to 1000 lashes.
Salman doesn't have much time to get his country out of this dire predicament. Saudi Arabia is in urgent need of reform. And I do mean real reform, which unfortunately he doesn't seem likely to embark on. Reform starting with measures against corruption, going through an expansion of its citizens' human rights, and of course changes in the country's foreign policy, where Salman will have to urgently find a way out of the Yemen quagmire, and look for ways to improve the relations with the major regional players like Iraq, Syria and of course Iran. Otherwise, the following years could prove catastrophic for Saudi Arabia.
Indeed, no other Saudi king had previously encountered so much trouble right from day one: wars in Syria and Yemen, highly volatile relations with Iran, a growing terrorist threat, serious economic problems, and a rising social discontent at home.
After he came to power, Salman promised his people stability and prosperity. But today we're witnessing just the opposite: almost nine months into his rule, Saudi Arabia was already at war in Yemen, and though they've been reporting of "victories" almost daily, the war is nowhere near being over. In reality, things look rather different: that conflict is taking a massive civilian death toll, the suffering of the local people is mounting, and the whole region is getting increasingly destabilized. Various international human rights organizations are lining up to accuse Saudi Arabia of blatant human rights violations, including the use of banned weapons. And other countries are feeling the burn of condemnation as well, for having amped up their arms supplies for Saudi Arabia in recent times.
Saudi Arabia's image abroad has never been this bad. The war in Syria and the conflict with Assad are threatening to turn into a huge failure for Riyadh. Despite the billions of dollars of financial aid for the various proxy rebel groups in Syria, the Saudis cannot boast of any significant success against the hated regime in Damascus. The so called moderate Syrian opposition, heavily funded by Saudi Arabia, has proven to be helpless, bitterly divided, and inefficient. Besides, it's being accused of maintaining close relations with terrorists. The whole situation in the region is more unstable than ever in the history of the Saudi kingdom.
We couldn't miss another fact as well: right now it seems the battle for supremacy between Iran and Saudi Arabia is being won by Tehran. The Sunni regime in Riyadh has done all in its powers to prevent the rise of Shia Iran, and block its return to the international stage - to no avail. After the lifting of the international sanctions, Tehran has found itself in an extremely favorable position. Not to mention that Iran exerts a huge influence in Iraq and Lebanon, and partly in Syria and Yemen. And Bahrain too.
What's more, it's logical that Iran would now expect a bright economic future, while Saudi Arabia is suffocating under a ton of problems that could increase the social tensions at home. The spoiled Saudi population that's become so used to luxury and prosperity thanks to the oil sales, will now be facing painful cuts in the months and years to come. And this is bound to generate a lot of tensions and social unrest in Salman's kingdom. The king is not helping much either in that respect, having failed to provide a satisfactory response to the serious social and economical challenges.
In the meantime, Amnesty and other international NGOs frequently insist that the state of human rights in the Saudi kingdom is catastrophic. Under Salman, things have gotten even worse. The number of executions has risen significantly in recent months, the latest example in that respect being the execution of Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr, which caused the recent new rift with Iran, as well as a wave of outrage around the world. We could also remind of the case of a blogger called Raif Badawi, who was thrown in jail on charges of "insulting Islam" - he was sentenced to 1000 lashes.
Salman doesn't have much time to get his country out of this dire predicament. Saudi Arabia is in urgent need of reform. And I do mean real reform, which unfortunately he doesn't seem likely to embark on. Reform starting with measures against corruption, going through an expansion of its citizens' human rights, and of course changes in the country's foreign policy, where Salman will have to urgently find a way out of the Yemen quagmire, and look for ways to improve the relations with the major regional players like Iraq, Syria and of course Iran. Otherwise, the following years could prove catastrophic for Saudi Arabia.