A sudden setback for a wannabe dear-leader
Don't know if most of you have heard this already, but it's mildly good news.
Turkey election: ruling party loses majority as pro-Kurdish HDP gains seats
In a nutshell, Erdogan's AKP is about to lose the comfortable parliamentary majority that they were enjoying, and which had started giving them the impression that they're invincible. Curiously, the Kurdish party HDP has passed the gargantuan 10% threshold to enter parliament for the first time, and looks likely to suddenly end up with 78+ seats.
All in all, Erdogan has got a bloody nose today, so we'll have to wait and see how he'll react to this major setback. He was bracing himself for a landslide, and a possible next step toward changing the constitution to turn Turkey from a parliamentary into a presidential republic, thus turning himself into Dear Leader. But not so fast, efendim!
Granted, there are still some more ballot boxes to be counted, but AKP looks most likely to get about 41%, which is a slide from those 49% back in 2011. The opposition CHP gets 26%, then follows MHP with 16% and the HDP (Kurds) with 12.5%. This means AKP won't be able to change the constitution for the time being. There are already some analysts predicting that this result will affect Turkey's direction, including its foreign policies. There'll be some serious repercussions for Turkey regionally. Starting with Syria, of course. And of course the relations with Israel, NATO and the US. If Erdogan is compelled by his new coalition partners (whoever those happen to be) to stop supporting the so called "moderates" in Syria and actually start some real border control, and step away from the friendship course with the Islamic State, so much the better. Perhaps there'll be fewer ancient cities razed to the ground.
Of course we shouldn't hasten to label this a huge win for Turkish democracy, and a major blow on authoritarianism yet. Erdogan is always sure to pull some aces from his sleeves. But it's good news nevertheless.
As for Erdogan's options for a future cabinet, from where I stand, looks like the most likely one is an AKP/MHP coalition, or AKP taking the minority-government option, with a possible new election sometime in the near future (which is quite a risk, however). In case the former happens, the coalition wouldn't be very stable anyway - there'll certainly be lots of disagreements on many points, and the smaller party would want to keep Erdogan's feet firmly to the ground - but that doesn't necessarily mean there'll be new elections soon. In case Erdogan risks with the latter option, he can't be sure the Turks wouldn't decide to finish him on the re-run. AKP doesn't look in a good shape right now, so they might suffer even more in that case.
The opposition's problem is that it remains disunited, incoherent, and disorganized. Sure, the Kurds have launched a new long-term strategy, fashioned after that of the ethnic Turkish minority party DPS in neighboring Bulgaria, which has spread its wings across the whole country, has propped up a number of governments in exchange for concessions, and is virtually ruling entire regions now (where they're ethnically dominant) like some kind of feudals. The Kurds in Turkey are nearly twice larger in terms of share of the population compared to DPS, so they might've figured this strategy of gradual takeover through playing "the moderate stabilizing factor" would be beneficial for them - as opposed to blowing up buses on crowded marketplaces. Given the increased importance of their counterparts across the border in neighboring Iraq (the Peshmerga now being the main force that counters the Islamic State, the Iraqi military virtually having disintegrated and become cannon fodder), I'm guessing the Kurds in Turkey will be getting ever more assertive.
As for AKP, getting 41% of the vote means that the majority of Turkish citizens voted against Erdogan's party, and do not approve his policies. Sure, that doesn't mean the opposition is anywhere near forming a government, and it doesn't look likely that this disunity on their part would be overcome anytime soon, so the AKP will probably keep ruling for many years to come - at least while they keep getting anywhere above 35% of the vote. But with Turkey's economic situation gradually deteriorating now, and with the constant refugee and military pressure from the south, Erdogan is in for quite some trouble in the following years.
Turkey election: ruling party loses majority as pro-Kurdish HDP gains seats
In a nutshell, Erdogan's AKP is about to lose the comfortable parliamentary majority that they were enjoying, and which had started giving them the impression that they're invincible. Curiously, the Kurdish party HDP has passed the gargantuan 10% threshold to enter parliament for the first time, and looks likely to suddenly end up with 78+ seats.
All in all, Erdogan has got a bloody nose today, so we'll have to wait and see how he'll react to this major setback. He was bracing himself for a landslide, and a possible next step toward changing the constitution to turn Turkey from a parliamentary into a presidential republic, thus turning himself into Dear Leader. But not so fast, efendim!
Granted, there are still some more ballot boxes to be counted, but AKP looks most likely to get about 41%, which is a slide from those 49% back in 2011. The opposition CHP gets 26%, then follows MHP with 16% and the HDP (Kurds) with 12.5%. This means AKP won't be able to change the constitution for the time being. There are already some analysts predicting that this result will affect Turkey's direction, including its foreign policies. There'll be some serious repercussions for Turkey regionally. Starting with Syria, of course. And of course the relations with Israel, NATO and the US. If Erdogan is compelled by his new coalition partners (whoever those happen to be) to stop supporting the so called "moderates" in Syria and actually start some real border control, and step away from the friendship course with the Islamic State, so much the better. Perhaps there'll be fewer ancient cities razed to the ground.
Of course we shouldn't hasten to label this a huge win for Turkish democracy, and a major blow on authoritarianism yet. Erdogan is always sure to pull some aces from his sleeves. But it's good news nevertheless.
As for Erdogan's options for a future cabinet, from where I stand, looks like the most likely one is an AKP/MHP coalition, or AKP taking the minority-government option, with a possible new election sometime in the near future (which is quite a risk, however). In case the former happens, the coalition wouldn't be very stable anyway - there'll certainly be lots of disagreements on many points, and the smaller party would want to keep Erdogan's feet firmly to the ground - but that doesn't necessarily mean there'll be new elections soon. In case Erdogan risks with the latter option, he can't be sure the Turks wouldn't decide to finish him on the re-run. AKP doesn't look in a good shape right now, so they might suffer even more in that case.
The opposition's problem is that it remains disunited, incoherent, and disorganized. Sure, the Kurds have launched a new long-term strategy, fashioned after that of the ethnic Turkish minority party DPS in neighboring Bulgaria, which has spread its wings across the whole country, has propped up a number of governments in exchange for concessions, and is virtually ruling entire regions now (where they're ethnically dominant) like some kind of feudals. The Kurds in Turkey are nearly twice larger in terms of share of the population compared to DPS, so they might've figured this strategy of gradual takeover through playing "the moderate stabilizing factor" would be beneficial for them - as opposed to blowing up buses on crowded marketplaces. Given the increased importance of their counterparts across the border in neighboring Iraq (the Peshmerga now being the main force that counters the Islamic State, the Iraqi military virtually having disintegrated and become cannon fodder), I'm guessing the Kurds in Turkey will be getting ever more assertive.
As for AKP, getting 41% of the vote means that the majority of Turkish citizens voted against Erdogan's party, and do not approve his policies. Sure, that doesn't mean the opposition is anywhere near forming a government, and it doesn't look likely that this disunity on their part would be overcome anytime soon, so the AKP will probably keep ruling for many years to come - at least while they keep getting anywhere above 35% of the vote. But with Turkey's economic situation gradually deteriorating now, and with the constant refugee and military pressure from the south, Erdogan is in for quite some trouble in the following years.