Telemann has asked me to take a stab at explaining WHY this shift took place. Well, there are many more qualified commentators than myself on this matter, but I'll give it a try. And let me qualify my analysis by saying that these aren't necessarily original arguments. If you comb through recent editorials in Canadian newspapers, such as The Globe and Mail or The National Post, you'll find plenty of insightful punditry published in the wake of the recent Alberta election.
So, here are some thoughts to consider:
(a) Since the early twentieth century, Albertans have been in the habit of giving one party the reins of power, and then re-electing them for decades. The Social Credit party governed the province from 1935 to 1970 (first under "Bible Bill" Aberhart, a fundamentalist preacher, and then under Ernest Manning, the father of Preston Manning). Then in 1970, the Progressive Conservatives came into office...and Albertans kept them there until 2015. 44 years is a long time in power -- even by Alberta standards! Sooner or later, people get tired on one-party rule, and the Conservative party seems to have lost its grip since the days of Ralph Klein (1990s to the early 2000s -- and he was more "conservative" than "progressive," but the economy boomed under his watch).
(b) Another important thing to keep in mind: the majority of voters still cast their ballots for one of two conservative parties: Progressive Conservative or Wild Rose (basically a Tea Party-style splinter from the Progressive Conservatives). Because of the way First Past The Post works in the parliamentary system, the spread of votes meant that the NDP governs with 40% of the popular vote, while Wild Rose (which actually garnered less of the popular vote than PC) is the official opposition.
(c) A whole host of mis-steps by the Progressive Conservatives before and throughout the campaign (fuelled in party, perhaps, by a sense of entitlement as the natural governing party), combined with popular resentment against both the political and oil-based business elite, yielded this result. And economic troubles didn't help either.
Two more thoughts (and while these aren't original arguments, they're some explanations that I have encountered, and find plausible):
(d) Back in the 1990s and early 2000s, the Progressive Conservatives under Ralph Klein capitalized on a booming oil economy. Klein began by radically slashing social spending, and reining in spending on health, education and infrastructure. And cutting taxes. But as the oil economy took off, provincial revenues from oil royalties and such allowed Klein the luxury of loosening the purse strings, while still cutting both corporate and personal taxes, AND still eliminating the province's debt entirely. Buoyed by these revenues, Klein's successors continued to expand the public sector (the health sector in particular). But arguably, this expansion didn't keep pace with the needs of a rapidly growing province. At any rate, the growing strength of the public sector meant stronger public sector unions, and these unions generally supported the NDP. In other words, the economic success of the Progressive Conservatives during the oil boom may ultimately have proved their undoing.
(e) Shift has been underway for some time. Not only the growing public sector and organized public sector workers, but also growing migration & immigration. The hot economy attracted new immigrants, as well as migrants from other Canadian provinces. One of the effects of this in-migration to the province has been a more diverse population -- both ethnically and politically. Many of these new Albertans aren't as conservative as the older stock. And a few years back, they elected a mayor in Calgary who really represents this *new* Alberta: the Toronto-born Naheed Nenshi (whose parents immigrated to Canada from Tanzania, of south Asian origin).
So, here are some thoughts to consider:
(a) Since the early twentieth century, Albertans have been in the habit of giving one party the reins of power, and then re-electing them for decades. The Social Credit party governed the province from 1935 to 1970 (first under "Bible Bill" Aberhart, a fundamentalist preacher, and then under Ernest Manning, the father of Preston Manning). Then in 1970, the Progressive Conservatives came into office...and Albertans kept them there until 2015. 44 years is a long time in power -- even by Alberta standards! Sooner or later, people get tired on one-party rule, and the Conservative party seems to have lost its grip since the days of Ralph Klein (1990s to the early 2000s -- and he was more "conservative" than "progressive," but the economy boomed under his watch).
(b) Another important thing to keep in mind: the majority of voters still cast their ballots for one of two conservative parties: Progressive Conservative or Wild Rose (basically a Tea Party-style splinter from the Progressive Conservatives). Because of the way First Past The Post works in the parliamentary system, the spread of votes meant that the NDP governs with 40% of the popular vote, while Wild Rose (which actually garnered less of the popular vote than PC) is the official opposition.
(c) A whole host of mis-steps by the Progressive Conservatives before and throughout the campaign (fuelled in party, perhaps, by a sense of entitlement as the natural governing party), combined with popular resentment against both the political and oil-based business elite, yielded this result. And economic troubles didn't help either.
Two more thoughts (and while these aren't original arguments, they're some explanations that I have encountered, and find plausible):
(d) Back in the 1990s and early 2000s, the Progressive Conservatives under Ralph Klein capitalized on a booming oil economy. Klein began by radically slashing social spending, and reining in spending on health, education and infrastructure. And cutting taxes. But as the oil economy took off, provincial revenues from oil royalties and such allowed Klein the luxury of loosening the purse strings, while still cutting both corporate and personal taxes, AND still eliminating the province's debt entirely. Buoyed by these revenues, Klein's successors continued to expand the public sector (the health sector in particular). But arguably, this expansion didn't keep pace with the needs of a rapidly growing province. At any rate, the growing strength of the public sector meant stronger public sector unions, and these unions generally supported the NDP. In other words, the economic success of the Progressive Conservatives during the oil boom may ultimately have proved their undoing.
(e) Shift has been underway for some time. Not only the growing public sector and organized public sector workers, but also growing migration & immigration. The hot economy attracted new immigrants, as well as migrants from other Canadian provinces. One of the effects of this in-migration to the province has been a more diverse population -- both ethnically and politically. Many of these new Albertans aren't as conservative as the older stock. And a few years back, they elected a mayor in Calgary who really represents this *new* Alberta: the Toronto-born Naheed Nenshi (whose parents immigrated to Canada from Tanzania, of south Asian origin).
(continued below)
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