Russia's backyard trouble
If we're to believe the Uzbek intelligence, scouting units of the Islamic State have now appeared on the Turkmen and Uzbek borders. Meanwhile, Kyrgyz experts claim that the Islamic State has put aside 70 million dollars for the destabilization of the situation in the fiercely contested Fergana valley, the place where the borders of Kyrgyzstan, Tadjikistan and Uzbekistan meet.
The IS themselves have already announced the appointment of an "Emir", plus the establishment of a 12-member council which is to rule the so called Khurasan region, believing that in the future it'll be encompassing all five Central Asian republics plus Pakistan, Afghanistan, parts of Iran, China and India. They say an army of 10 thousand strong is now at the Central Asian borders.
So, as long a shot as that may sound at this stage, still, what would happen in the post-Soviet republics if the IS does start gaining territories there? Chances are that many among the locals who've been largely demoralized by endless authoritarian regimes, would probably readily embrace the new rulers and their ways. And the small ruling elite would flee, mostly to Russia. Which brings us to the next question. How would Russia react to such a development?
Until about a couple of years ago, Afghanistan was being considered the most serious threat for Russia in that region, being a potential source of instability in Central Asia. Many analysts were saying Russia is not ready for an abrupt destabilization of the situation in the region, so it had to cooperate with the authoritarian regimes in those republics more actively, but also look for other ways that wouldn't allow the Islamic extremists take the reins. They were even warning the authorities of an improbable "Taliban invasion", even when the latter had quit such plans a long time ago.
But now there's a new military force knocking at the doors of Central Asia, and Russia should be taking notes, because that has always been part of their zone of interest - indeed, it's their backyard, their security buffer zone. And this time, their interests are really being threatened by the Islamic State. Not only that; the Russian media, citing intelligence officials, are saying that missionaries of the IS are already acting inside Russia itself. Still, no special measures either in support of the Central Asian republics or for countering the subversive elements within Russia are being observed so far.
It's just that Russia is too preoccupied with their standoff with the West. And though the IS and their supporters are now commiting atrocities way beyond just Syria and Iraq (in Yemen, Tunisia, even in some autonomous regions within the Russian Federation), in Russia almost no one is taking the prospects of an invasion in Central Asia seriously - yet.
But really, what would Putin do if one or several Central Asian regimes are threatened with collapse? It's clear that the Islamic State wouldn't directly attack the Russian military base in Tadjikistan for example - it could always be bypassed, as has already happened before. Which means Russia would first have to organize the evacuation of their bases in Tadjikistan and Kyrgyzstan, lest they be surrounded and cut off. Particularly the air base in Kyrgyzstan, which hosts modern military equipment, including border-surveillance drones. If those fall into terrorist hands, then Russia is truly screwed on that front.
The chances of Russia doing the opposite, namely transferring troops into Tadjik territory, and trying to preemptively defend the "secular" authoritarian government from the Islamists, looks slim for the time being. In that case, the losses would be tremendous, and they'd be hard to sell to the public in the context of the claim that the main threat to Russia comes from the West.
As for Uzbekistan, there's no Russian military presence there, and the country is not member of any defense alliance, so Russia doesn't have any formal pretext for providing assistance there. If the Islamists do make inroads into Central Asia, the Russian military could only meet them as far as the Kazakh border, as Kazakhstan is part of the new Eurasian customs union. The other republics would have to cope on their own somehow.
There's something else. If forceful Islamization begins in Central Asia, the thousands of guest workers could become another huge problem for Russia. Even now, the Russian media are warning that some of the newcomers could be IS fighters in disguise. Imagine the hysteria if the Islamists entered even one of the Central Asian republics. Thousands, if not millions of refugees could head towards Russia along the path that's already been beaten by the migrants. The average Russian would start seeing potential terrorists in every guest worker or immigrant. Inevitably, there'll be more ethnic profiling, mass redislocations of the "suspicious", clashes with the local population, etc.
And lastly, as has happened with the Afghanis, Russia would stop accepting people from its own allies. They'll have to flee further to the west, or be forced to pass on IS's side for fear of torture and execution. Which would only make things more compicated for everyone who doesn't want to live in a Caliphate.
The IS themselves have already announced the appointment of an "Emir", plus the establishment of a 12-member council which is to rule the so called Khurasan region, believing that in the future it'll be encompassing all five Central Asian republics plus Pakistan, Afghanistan, parts of Iran, China and India. They say an army of 10 thousand strong is now at the Central Asian borders.
So, as long a shot as that may sound at this stage, still, what would happen in the post-Soviet republics if the IS does start gaining territories there? Chances are that many among the locals who've been largely demoralized by endless authoritarian regimes, would probably readily embrace the new rulers and their ways. And the small ruling elite would flee, mostly to Russia. Which brings us to the next question. How would Russia react to such a development?
Until about a couple of years ago, Afghanistan was being considered the most serious threat for Russia in that region, being a potential source of instability in Central Asia. Many analysts were saying Russia is not ready for an abrupt destabilization of the situation in the region, so it had to cooperate with the authoritarian regimes in those republics more actively, but also look for other ways that wouldn't allow the Islamic extremists take the reins. They were even warning the authorities of an improbable "Taliban invasion", even when the latter had quit such plans a long time ago.
But now there's a new military force knocking at the doors of Central Asia, and Russia should be taking notes, because that has always been part of their zone of interest - indeed, it's their backyard, their security buffer zone. And this time, their interests are really being threatened by the Islamic State. Not only that; the Russian media, citing intelligence officials, are saying that missionaries of the IS are already acting inside Russia itself. Still, no special measures either in support of the Central Asian republics or for countering the subversive elements within Russia are being observed so far.
It's just that Russia is too preoccupied with their standoff with the West. And though the IS and their supporters are now commiting atrocities way beyond just Syria and Iraq (in Yemen, Tunisia, even in some autonomous regions within the Russian Federation), in Russia almost no one is taking the prospects of an invasion in Central Asia seriously - yet.
But really, what would Putin do if one or several Central Asian regimes are threatened with collapse? It's clear that the Islamic State wouldn't directly attack the Russian military base in Tadjikistan for example - it could always be bypassed, as has already happened before. Which means Russia would first have to organize the evacuation of their bases in Tadjikistan and Kyrgyzstan, lest they be surrounded and cut off. Particularly the air base in Kyrgyzstan, which hosts modern military equipment, including border-surveillance drones. If those fall into terrorist hands, then Russia is truly screwed on that front.
The chances of Russia doing the opposite, namely transferring troops into Tadjik territory, and trying to preemptively defend the "secular" authoritarian government from the Islamists, looks slim for the time being. In that case, the losses would be tremendous, and they'd be hard to sell to the public in the context of the claim that the main threat to Russia comes from the West.
As for Uzbekistan, there's no Russian military presence there, and the country is not member of any defense alliance, so Russia doesn't have any formal pretext for providing assistance there. If the Islamists do make inroads into Central Asia, the Russian military could only meet them as far as the Kazakh border, as Kazakhstan is part of the new Eurasian customs union. The other republics would have to cope on their own somehow.
There's something else. If forceful Islamization begins in Central Asia, the thousands of guest workers could become another huge problem for Russia. Even now, the Russian media are warning that some of the newcomers could be IS fighters in disguise. Imagine the hysteria if the Islamists entered even one of the Central Asian republics. Thousands, if not millions of refugees could head towards Russia along the path that's already been beaten by the migrants. The average Russian would start seeing potential terrorists in every guest worker or immigrant. Inevitably, there'll be more ethnic profiling, mass redislocations of the "suspicious", clashes with the local population, etc.
And lastly, as has happened with the Afghanis, Russia would stop accepting people from its own allies. They'll have to flee further to the west, or be forced to pass on IS's side for fear of torture and execution. Which would only make things more compicated for everyone who doesn't want to live in a Caliphate.