Hawk rising

[mahnmut]

Israel is going to have more of the same for the next 4 yaers, it seems: from deep freezing of the peace negotiations with the Palestinians, to a hard stance on the ongoing tedious negotiations about Iran's nuclear program, to additional tensions with Obama's administration and the EU.

Rather than turning a new page (as most forecasts suggested),

Comments

[telemann]

Hm.

Given what's happened over the last three weeks, my worst fear is what would happen if Bibi says "Screw the Iranian deal that's being brokered by the United States," because no one is going to threaten the security of Israel, and if he thinks Iran is getting close to obtaining atomic weapons, and then launches a unilateral pre-emptive air strike on Iran. And his walking back his earlier statements about not supporting a two state solution, how cynical. Right out of the Frank Luntz playbook.

What a mess.

[kylinrouge]

he thinks Iran is getting close to obtaining atomic weapons,

Since 1992, yes. Or maybe even the 80s.

and then launches a unilateral pre-emptive air strike on Iran.

He's not that dumb.

[telemann]

He's not that dumb.

Considering what he said prior to the election, I think it's quite possible that he is that dumb.

[kylinrouge]

The same stuff he's been saying for decades. Sometimes when someone cries wolf too many times...

[telemann]

He's been saying he's opposed to a two state solution for decades?

No, of course not. And even if I was just referring to the Iranian threat (which I wasn't), and regardless how long he's been talking about it, if Bibi thinks the Iranians are close to getting a nuclear weapon, regardless if it's factually true or not, I don't think it's that farfetched he would order a pre-emptive air strike on Iran, given his actions in Gaza despite enormous pressure.

[kylinrouge]

If Bibi said he was ever in favor of a one state solution or two state solution, he never made any meaningful attempt to bring this about. He's a politician, his actions speak louder than his words. In 2009 he pretended to be in favor of a two state solution but kept sabotaging the negotiations. He's a career liar.

if Bibi thinks the Iranians are close to getting a nuclear weapon, regardless if it's factually true or not, I don't think it's that farfetched he would order a pre-emptive air strike on Iran, given his actions in Gaza despite enormous pressure.

This isn't Iraq circa 1992. Bombing Iran would be suicide.

[telemann]

This isn't Iraq circa 1992. Bombing Iran would be suicide.

A distinction that doesn't matter. And I never said Bibi was particularly smart.
Stupidity has a bad habit of getting its way.

[kylinrouge]

The same way George W. Bush isn't smart? Come on, people like this don't get elected if they're stupid. Bibi knows exactly what he's doing and exactly who he's pandering to with his actions.

[telemann]

Welp, I think elected officials are just as liable to mistakes as anyone. And I don't think because they get elected makes infallible or never make mistakes of judgement.

[kylinrouge]

Please don't fallacy me. I said he was smart, not 'infallible'. And it would take a monumental act of idiocy to bomb Iran.

[telemann]

But being smart enough to get elected doesn't mean he can't commit an act of idiocy (monumental or small or super-sized) in an area rife with them. Considering what the election cost him, for the stupid mistakes he made, I don't think that makes him (especially) smart anyway.

[kylinrouge]

He knows he needs US support for any action against Iran. He knows he won't get it. So he can say whatever he wants to appease his base, then blame foreigners for not letting him go through with it.

[underlankers]

In the case of Gaza the logistics and the enemy are very simple in military terms. Going all the way to Iran to strike three or four divided nuclear sites no doubt very heavily armed with weaponry Iran is concealing and lying about for very good reason given the Osiraq precedent, is a completely different animal. It's the equivalent of kicking the dog versus kicking the rabid Kodiak bear.

[underlankers]

His intelligence level doesn't matter, without US or Saudi help (insofar as the two are different) he can't do it anyhow. He doesn't have the ability to fly that many planes that far to hit a widely distributed program that's as bomb-proof as Iran can make it. And since unlike Israelis or Americans Iran has a lot of experience of war-fighting at an aerial disadvantage, they probably know more about proofing their stuff than Israel or the USA or Saudi Arabia would about bombing it.