Blame it all on Crimea
The number of Russians who continue to believe the annexation of Crimea was the right thing to do, seems to remain unchanged: about 90% support Putin's move, just as they used to at the time of the event. That's what the polls suggest. Problem is, the euphoria from the annexation may've started evaporating pretty fast.
The main reasons are, of course, economic. The living standard in Russia has started deteriorating. The ruble is in a free-fall. The All-Russian Center for Public Survey has found that only 17% of the Russians believe their economy is moving in the right direction. According to data from Levada, 61% of the Russian citizens expect deterioration of their financial situation in 2015. 56% say that Crimea's joining of Russia and the actions of the separatists in Donbass will lead to further deterioration of the living standard of the Russian population, and ultimately to another economic crisis.
One'd think that these numbers would make someone in Kremlin poise and think for a minute, and start considering real measures to curb the rising social discontent. But nothing of the sort is happening. Putin's regime keeps watching from the sidelines how thousands of public workers are flocking to the streets, protesting against the mass job cuts, especially in the rural regions. One can't help asking themselves if Putin won't pull another trump card to counter the growing tensions. And that last magic trick might turn out to be... well, Crimea.
Even now, the Russians are opposed to the influx of refugees coming from the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. Those people have to be fed, they need jobs and health care. And Russia's money is melting away at an alarming rate, most Russians worrying that they could find themselves at the employment market as soon as 2015. Who cares about the refugees at such a time?
One could argue that the whole Crimean region is a refugee of some sorts. It needs nearly 2 million new jobs right now. Crimea has now seceded from Ukraine and it'll be needing new roads, a new bridge over the Strait of Kerch connecting it directly to mainland Russia; it'll be needing regular fresh water supplies, foods, pensions and whatnot. Russia had promised to supply all that. But now that the money is running out, what then?
More importantly, what will happen when the Russian citizens realize that there's not enough money because the Russian economy isn't growing anyway, and the budget is dangerously shrinking? Naturally, people will be asking themselves who's to blame for all that. And the most logical answer is: the rulers. At least that's what the citizens in most normal countries around the world would've concluded. If that were a democratic society, people would go on elections and change their government, and bring new people to power who'd bring new ways of tackling the problem.
But not in Russia. In Russia, power is a constant. The regime hasn't changed even one bit for the last 15 years. The rulers claim that if they're removed, the country would plunge into chaos. How, in those circumstances, would anyone in their right mind leave Mother Russia at the mercy of chance and luck, they ask their people. Of course you should choose the lesser evil, and bet on stability. And this means that the Kremlin must seek for other scapegoats whom they can blame all the current problems on, because blaming it all on the West will sooner or later get worn-out and people will stop buying that BS.
Crimea and its citizens look like the perfect candidates for a new scapegoat right now. It's enough to just stage a few "disruptive actions" by opposition leaders and show them on all state-controlled media, which could be arranged fairly easily. Then the Russians will "realize" how dearly the Crimean adventure has cost them. One or two liberal-leaning economists will conveniently explain it all in details and in scientific terms, and the representatives of the regime will explain to the Russian people how ungrateful the Crimean citizens have been. Et voila! We have a new scapegoat to distract the attention.
It's possible that the Crimean citizens will start complaining too, in the meantime. They had a lot of illusions about joining Russia. Now that they've started taking their pinky-rosy glasses off, they'll witness the decline of mid- and small business in their region; they'll notice the water shortages, the blackouts, the food shortages, and not least importantly, mass unemployment. The Crimean authorities are begging for an extension to the one-year deadline for completing the full transition of their peninsula to the Russian legal system. But they might not be allowed that extra time, and the first outburst of discontent in Crimea will inevitably come around the beginning of 2015.
Then the media will generously show the Russians how their "ungrateful" compatriots from across the Azov Sea are ranting, despite having been saved from the paws of the "Ukrainian junta". They'll use the slogan, "We saved them and almost went broke ourselves because of them, and now they're complaining!" This will swiftly change the moods among the Russians, and make them forget how they, in turn, had protested at the streets against their own administration, loudly slamming cutlery and yelling at the State Duma.
They'll allow to be convinced that the regime is not to blame, because it was busy saving Crimeans, who unfortunately turned out to be a bunch of greedy ingrates who had squandered Russian money for nothing. And the Russian authorities will only have to ask the population of Simpheropol, Sevastopol and the other Crimean cities where the billions of Russian aid had gone - which in fact may've never reached Crimea at all in the first place.
The main reasons are, of course, economic. The living standard in Russia has started deteriorating. The ruble is in a free-fall. The All-Russian Center for Public Survey has found that only 17% of the Russians believe their economy is moving in the right direction. According to data from Levada, 61% of the Russian citizens expect deterioration of their financial situation in 2015. 56% say that Crimea's joining of Russia and the actions of the separatists in Donbass will lead to further deterioration of the living standard of the Russian population, and ultimately to another economic crisis.
One'd think that these numbers would make someone in Kremlin poise and think for a minute, and start considering real measures to curb the rising social discontent. But nothing of the sort is happening. Putin's regime keeps watching from the sidelines how thousands of public workers are flocking to the streets, protesting against the mass job cuts, especially in the rural regions. One can't help asking themselves if Putin won't pull another trump card to counter the growing tensions. And that last magic trick might turn out to be... well, Crimea.
Even now, the Russians are opposed to the influx of refugees coming from the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. Those people have to be fed, they need jobs and health care. And Russia's money is melting away at an alarming rate, most Russians worrying that they could find themselves at the employment market as soon as 2015. Who cares about the refugees at such a time?
One could argue that the whole Crimean region is a refugee of some sorts. It needs nearly 2 million new jobs right now. Crimea has now seceded from Ukraine and it'll be needing new roads, a new bridge over the Strait of Kerch connecting it directly to mainland Russia; it'll be needing regular fresh water supplies, foods, pensions and whatnot. Russia had promised to supply all that. But now that the money is running out, what then?
More importantly, what will happen when the Russian citizens realize that there's not enough money because the Russian economy isn't growing anyway, and the budget is dangerously shrinking? Naturally, people will be asking themselves who's to blame for all that. And the most logical answer is: the rulers. At least that's what the citizens in most normal countries around the world would've concluded. If that were a democratic society, people would go on elections and change their government, and bring new people to power who'd bring new ways of tackling the problem.
But not in Russia. In Russia, power is a constant. The regime hasn't changed even one bit for the last 15 years. The rulers claim that if they're removed, the country would plunge into chaos. How, in those circumstances, would anyone in their right mind leave Mother Russia at the mercy of chance and luck, they ask their people. Of course you should choose the lesser evil, and bet on stability. And this means that the Kremlin must seek for other scapegoats whom they can blame all the current problems on, because blaming it all on the West will sooner or later get worn-out and people will stop buying that BS.
Crimea and its citizens look like the perfect candidates for a new scapegoat right now. It's enough to just stage a few "disruptive actions" by opposition leaders and show them on all state-controlled media, which could be arranged fairly easily. Then the Russians will "realize" how dearly the Crimean adventure has cost them. One or two liberal-leaning economists will conveniently explain it all in details and in scientific terms, and the representatives of the regime will explain to the Russian people how ungrateful the Crimean citizens have been. Et voila! We have a new scapegoat to distract the attention.
It's possible that the Crimean citizens will start complaining too, in the meantime. They had a lot of illusions about joining Russia. Now that they've started taking their pinky-rosy glasses off, they'll witness the decline of mid- and small business in their region; they'll notice the water shortages, the blackouts, the food shortages, and not least importantly, mass unemployment. The Crimean authorities are begging for an extension to the one-year deadline for completing the full transition of their peninsula to the Russian legal system. But they might not be allowed that extra time, and the first outburst of discontent in Crimea will inevitably come around the beginning of 2015.
Then the media will generously show the Russians how their "ungrateful" compatriots from across the Azov Sea are ranting, despite having been saved from the paws of the "Ukrainian junta". They'll use the slogan, "We saved them and almost went broke ourselves because of them, and now they're complaining!" This will swiftly change the moods among the Russians, and make them forget how they, in turn, had protested at the streets against their own administration, loudly slamming cutlery and yelling at the State Duma.
They'll allow to be convinced that the regime is not to blame, because it was busy saving Crimeans, who unfortunately turned out to be a bunch of greedy ingrates who had squandered Russian money for nothing. And the Russian authorities will only have to ask the population of Simpheropol, Sevastopol and the other Crimean cities where the billions of Russian aid had gone - which in fact may've never reached Crimea at all in the first place.