The hunt for power
Recep Tayyip Erdogan wins Turkish presidential election
On election night, Erdogan pointed out in his speech that he'll be president of all Turks. That is, of those 48% who didn't vote for him, too. That's a timely promise, since he was often being accused of only favoring his base with his policies, and turning his back on the rest. Well, now the first commitment he did was to "a new societal accord". And, well, constitutional changes of course. Because he wants to change the political structure of the country, and establish a US-style presidential system, where the most important prerogatives will belong to... him, of course. Any surprises?
I bet he ultimately wants to see himself like this:
Erdogan may've won 50+2% of the votes, but he knows full well that he doesn't have the majority that he'd need to make changes in the Constitution. So he'll have to look for partners. The election result is nowhere near granting him a categorical mandate to pursue his plans for a presidential republic. The relatively low turnout (75%, which in the Turkish context is not that much, although here in the West it looks like a lot), is another obstacle. Before the election, Erdogan had said he would rely on a 90% turnout and 57% of the votes. Now he got neither. So that puts the legitimacy of his plans in question.
Besides, his opponent's weakness was an extra bonus. Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, the representative of the two main opposition parties, didn't really stand a chance. In fact, there are indications that many voters who leaned toward the opposition, eventually defected to Erdogan's camp, and others didn't go to the polling stations at all.
Now Erdogan will focus his attention on his own Justice and Development Party. It needs a new chairman, and the government needs a new prime minister. Erdogan will have to present his resignation by the end of the month from both positions.
The new party leader and government chairman (let's face it, unlike in Tansu Ciller's time, women are outside the equation in Erdogan's Turkey), will have to prepare the party for the parliamentary elections next year (in June). For the first time since its inception in 2001, the party will have to cope without its main driving engine, Erdogan (although he'll sure be pulling the strings from behind the scenes). Some analysts are already predicting a heavy defeat for the party. Some even say it'll lose up to 1/3 of its voters. On the last election in 2011, they got almost 50% of all votes. If they slide down that much, they'll be toast.
Erdogan will likely act swiftly, without waiting for the next presidential election in 2015. The future is just too uncertain for his party. So now he could opt for snap elections. So far he has categorically denied any speculations about snap elections in autumn, but let's not be fooled. There's nothing he'd like more.
He wants to pass constitutional change as soon as possible, and for that purpose he'll need at least 330 MP seats. Such a 3/5 majority in parliament would allow his party to call a referendum, and try to change the Constitution, and impose a presidential system upon his country. Right now they're 17 seats short, and no other party seems willing to cooperate in this deed. So there's just one option left for him.
Meanwhile, ISIL has promised to "liberate" Istanbul, if Turkey doesn't release the water from the Ataturk dam, and raise the level of the Euphrates river in Northern Iraq. So Erdogan might be having yet another steep challenge to overcome in the months and years to come. Ironically, he may have to work in even closer cooperation with the Kurds, if he doesn't want this threat to spill across borders, and threaten his country.
On election night, Erdogan pointed out in his speech that he'll be president of all Turks. That is, of those 48% who didn't vote for him, too. That's a timely promise, since he was often being accused of only favoring his base with his policies, and turning his back on the rest. Well, now the first commitment he did was to "a new societal accord". And, well, constitutional changes of course. Because he wants to change the political structure of the country, and establish a US-style presidential system, where the most important prerogatives will belong to... him, of course. Any surprises?
I bet he ultimately wants to see himself like this:
Erdogan may've won 50+2% of the votes, but he knows full well that he doesn't have the majority that he'd need to make changes in the Constitution. So he'll have to look for partners. The election result is nowhere near granting him a categorical mandate to pursue his plans for a presidential republic. The relatively low turnout (75%, which in the Turkish context is not that much, although here in the West it looks like a lot), is another obstacle. Before the election, Erdogan had said he would rely on a 90% turnout and 57% of the votes. Now he got neither. So that puts the legitimacy of his plans in question.
Besides, his opponent's weakness was an extra bonus. Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, the representative of the two main opposition parties, didn't really stand a chance. In fact, there are indications that many voters who leaned toward the opposition, eventually defected to Erdogan's camp, and others didn't go to the polling stations at all.
Now Erdogan will focus his attention on his own Justice and Development Party. It needs a new chairman, and the government needs a new prime minister. Erdogan will have to present his resignation by the end of the month from both positions.
The new party leader and government chairman (let's face it, unlike in Tansu Ciller's time, women are outside the equation in Erdogan's Turkey), will have to prepare the party for the parliamentary elections next year (in June). For the first time since its inception in 2001, the party will have to cope without its main driving engine, Erdogan (although he'll sure be pulling the strings from behind the scenes). Some analysts are already predicting a heavy defeat for the party. Some even say it'll lose up to 1/3 of its voters. On the last election in 2011, they got almost 50% of all votes. If they slide down that much, they'll be toast.
Erdogan will likely act swiftly, without waiting for the next presidential election in 2015. The future is just too uncertain for his party. So now he could opt for snap elections. So far he has categorically denied any speculations about snap elections in autumn, but let's not be fooled. There's nothing he'd like more.
He wants to pass constitutional change as soon as possible, and for that purpose he'll need at least 330 MP seats. Such a 3/5 majority in parliament would allow his party to call a referendum, and try to change the Constitution, and impose a presidential system upon his country. Right now they're 17 seats short, and no other party seems willing to cooperate in this deed. So there's just one option left for him.
Meanwhile, ISIL has promised to "liberate" Istanbul, if Turkey doesn't release the water from the Ataturk dam, and raise the level of the Euphrates river in Northern Iraq. So Erdogan might be having yet another steep challenge to overcome in the months and years to come. Ironically, he may have to work in even closer cooperation with the Kurds, if he doesn't want this threat to spill across borders, and threaten his country.