No happy ending
Their name means "Western education is sin". Which is why their attacks are often against schools in Nigeria. But this time Boko Haram has gone too far. Last month the armed Islamist group forcefully loaded dozens of trucks with 276 girls from a school in the north-eastern part of the country. Some of those kids managed to escape, but over 200 are still missing. It is presumed that they are being held in the densely forested areas next to the Cameroon border.
The leader of the group Abubakar Shekau is threatening to sell the hijacked girls into slavery. Most of them are Christian, but there are Muslims too. He claims they shouldn't have gone to school in the first place, but should have been married. In a video aired by the group about a week ago, they announced the girls had "willingly" converted to Islam, and showed some of them wearing hijabs and reciting from the Quran. He also said they would be held hostage unless the authorities released a group of Boko Haram militants that they were holding. But that scenario was categorically rejected by the government.
The incident sparked a massive public reaction and protests around many world cities. The social networks are witnessing a large campaign under the #BringBackOurGirls hash-tag, a number of Hollywood celebrities, public figures and politicians (Michelle Obama among them, despite pathetic ridicule and criticism from conservative pundits) holding a sheet of paper with the hash-tag displayed on it. The hope is that the huge public pressure would prompt the Nigerian government and the world powers to take action against the group and return the girls home. But even if everything ends with their release, the striking problems in Africa's biggest economy will not just go away, once the drama has subsided.
A team of experts from the US, UK, Israel and China, among them advisors, negotiators, military specialists and FBI agents, are already in Nigeria, trying to help find the hijacked girls. US pilots are also participating in the search, flying over the region in search of the hijackers. The US has provided satellite surveillance material. John Kerry has said they are trying to do their best to deal with Boko Haram. Meanwhile France is planning to send 3000 troops to adjacent countries who would help fight the Islamist militia in the Sahel.
However the experts believe any operation, even one with massive international help, would be like looking for a needle in a hay-stack. The Nigerians are experts in the local terrain, and we should remember how long it took to look for Saddam and Osama, despite all the resources that were mobilised in the search. A smaller US spec ops team would hardly drastically change the situation either, but it could be somewhat more efficient in aiding the Nigerian security forces, which in the past have consistently failed in preventing such attacks due to bad coordination and insufficient intelligence exchange. Indeed, these things have been happening there for a long time, but it took a big incident like this to actually stir up the public attention internationally (and the Nigerian government doing their best to cover up their failures had contributed to that). There is a noticeable drive for the US to "do something" at the moment. But the complexity of the situation requires a cautious and measured approach, because any rash actions would be counterproductive and pose a danger for the hostages. The short-term solution is in negotiations rather than the harder approach. Nigeria is not a country that lacks resources or capacities to defend itself against terrorism. The problem is rather the lack of political will. And no external aid could possibly improve the situation unless it is met by a local partner that is truly devoted to solving the problem.
Although in principle Nigeria is cautious about requesting foreign aid and views it as infringement on its sovereignty, so far the president Goodluck Jonathan has stated that he hopes the international help would mean "the beginning of the end of terror in Nigeria". This sudden change of mind is because he is already pressed against the wall. The government is being fiercely criticised for its sluggish and inadequate response to the situation, and there are even calls that the president should resign instead of running for re-election next year. Amnesty International has accused the Nigerian military that they had been warned of the incoming attack, several hours in advance, and took no precautions.
Initially the government was rejecting any chance of negotiations, but last week they suddenly changed the tune and announced they were now open for dialogue (although with the caveat that they preferred "discrete" actions because they didn't want to provoke the hijackers unnecessarily). The problem is, the government does not have much room for maneuvering. The pattern from other Islamist hijackings in the region suggests that it could take years before all girls are released. But if an active rescue mission is launched, there is a risk of a bloodbath, as it happened in similar cases in Kenya and Algeria last year. In the past Boko Haram and the government had indeed negotiated prisoner/hostage exchange without much ado. Which shows that there is still a good chance to get back the girls for a substantial ransom. But that would only cement Boko Haram's position, and that is a problem. If we add the big public attention that the group has garnered with these hijackings, it is no surprise that many believe even in the best case scenario this story would not end very well. Of course no one can know for sure how it will all end, but there just don't seem to be too many good scenarios right now. And regardless of the direction the events would take, be it negotiation or a risky rescue mission, it would still be a bumpy ride full of dangers.
Last year Jonathan declared an emergency situation in three affected states (Borno, Yobe and Adamawa). But since then Boko Haram has only increased its attacks and the unrest has entered its bloodiest stage yet, the number of civilian victims tripling. The government army claims they are poorly equipped and are lacking the firepower of their rivals. And yet, Nigeria's defense budget for this year is over $ 6 billion, which is twice its education budget. But the result is not more efficient defense forces, more security or an end of the conflict. And that naturally brings the question, where all this money is sinking.
And it's not like Boko Haram is just some lame foe who doesn't know what they are doing. They are something more than a guerrilla movement. Hundreds of militants from that group regularly enter villages, driving armed vehicles and wielding chainguns. No one knows for sure how many troops they have, but the number is definitely in the thousands. It is unclear who finances them. There are theories that they make the bulk of their cash through collecting ransom from recent hijackings of foreigners, and bank robbery. The government suspects they are enjoying support from various politicians and top military officials, and they are relying on jihadist groups like the Somalian Ash-Shabaab and Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. The gradual improvement and sohistication of their attacks suggests that their militants have been trained abroad. Some testimonies point out that they are recruiting from among the poor people in neighbouring countries like Chad and Niger, and paying them to fight for them.
However, the shocking hijacking of the Nigerian schoolgirls has stirred such an unanimous international condemnation, even from hardline Islamic countries, that some analysts are forecasting that few people would want to have anything to do with Boko Haram for a very long time. It seems this time the group has indeed gone too far. Even figures who would normally support Boko Haram's fight against the Nigerian government are now notably silent (including Al Qaeda). But on the other hand, this incident has provided the jihadists with such worldwide exposition that they could interpret that as a tremendous success anyway. Meanwhile, there are opinions that the involvement of countries like the US, UK and Israel would actually further complicate the efforts for the girls' release. The reason is that Boko Haram has a deep hatred for those countries and could demonstratively harden their position in attempt to humiliate the Western powers and increase its significance in the eyes of the global jihadist movement.
Boko Haram's activity through the years is already giving results in Nigeria. More and more Nigerians are reluctant to send their kids to school out of fear for their safety. There is a staggering number of 10 million children who never enter class, most of them girls. Rather than sitting in class and studying, they are forcefully married at an early age. As for the boys, they often become new recruits for the terrorists. The school where the 200 girls were taken from is one of the last remaining schools in the area. The entire education system in North Nigeria is threatened with collapse. Since 2012 thousands of kids have been forced to abandon school in Yobe, Kaduna, Adamawa, Borno and other states. Many teachers have fled to other states for fear of repercussions.
Nigeria, with its population of 170 million, is the most densely populated country in Africa and the largest economy on the continent (GDP=510 billion dollars, and an annual economic growth of 7% for the last decade). It is also one of the leading oil producers in the world. But the predominantly Muslim North-East (where Boko Haram mostly operates) is poor and underdeveloped in comparison to the rest of the country. The money that should be spent for infrastructure is going to the ever more swelling defense budget and for re-building the homes that Boko Haram frequently destroys. There is almost no trace left of the oil boom in those regions. There is a chronic energy shortage, 70% of the population lives on less than a dollar per day, youth unemployment approaches 80%, and the illiteracy and disease rates are staggering. As David Francis says, one of the first Western reporters to ever write about Boko Haram, "Most of the foot soldiers of Boko Haram aren't Muslim fanatics; they're poor kids who were turned against their corrupt country by a charismatic leader".
The main reason that Nigeria has such a huge security problem is that it is a resource-based economy. To a large extent it suffers of its inherent inequalities and social discrepancies. Everyone is desperately trying to snatch as large a piece of the oil pie as possible, and income from that oil production is extremely unevenly distributed. And this is what creates perfect conditions for all these conflicts.
Meanwhile, the president Goodluck Jonathan is being ever more openly accused of incompetence. We should also add the inexplicable indifference towards the pain of the families of the hijacked girls, which the government demonstrated in the first days after the incident. It took the head of state more than two weeks to actually start speaking on the subject publicly. The slow reaction of the authorities and their inability to even specify how many the missing schoolgirls were, have provoked enormous protests across the country. And they have reminded us that where government is weak, corrupt or non-existent, the message of extremist groups like Boko Haram tends to resonate with particular intensity. Until that is changed, the jihadist leaders will continue to prop up their twisted notion of fundamentalist religion as an antidote for all of society's illnesses.
The leader of the group Abubakar Shekau is threatening to sell the hijacked girls into slavery. Most of them are Christian, but there are Muslims too. He claims they shouldn't have gone to school in the first place, but should have been married. In a video aired by the group about a week ago, they announced the girls had "willingly" converted to Islam, and showed some of them wearing hijabs and reciting from the Quran. He also said they would be held hostage unless the authorities released a group of Boko Haram militants that they were holding. But that scenario was categorically rejected by the government.
The incident sparked a massive public reaction and protests around many world cities. The social networks are witnessing a large campaign under the #BringBackOurGirls hash-tag, a number of Hollywood celebrities, public figures and politicians (Michelle Obama among them, despite pathetic ridicule and criticism from conservative pundits) holding a sheet of paper with the hash-tag displayed on it. The hope is that the huge public pressure would prompt the Nigerian government and the world powers to take action against the group and return the girls home. But even if everything ends with their release, the striking problems in Africa's biggest economy will not just go away, once the drama has subsided.
A team of experts from the US, UK, Israel and China, among them advisors, negotiators, military specialists and FBI agents, are already in Nigeria, trying to help find the hijacked girls. US pilots are also participating in the search, flying over the region in search of the hijackers. The US has provided satellite surveillance material. John Kerry has said they are trying to do their best to deal with Boko Haram. Meanwhile France is planning to send 3000 troops to adjacent countries who would help fight the Islamist militia in the Sahel.
However the experts believe any operation, even one with massive international help, would be like looking for a needle in a hay-stack. The Nigerians are experts in the local terrain, and we should remember how long it took to look for Saddam and Osama, despite all the resources that were mobilised in the search. A smaller US spec ops team would hardly drastically change the situation either, but it could be somewhat more efficient in aiding the Nigerian security forces, which in the past have consistently failed in preventing such attacks due to bad coordination and insufficient intelligence exchange. Indeed, these things have been happening there for a long time, but it took a big incident like this to actually stir up the public attention internationally (and the Nigerian government doing their best to cover up their failures had contributed to that). There is a noticeable drive for the US to "do something" at the moment. But the complexity of the situation requires a cautious and measured approach, because any rash actions would be counterproductive and pose a danger for the hostages. The short-term solution is in negotiations rather than the harder approach. Nigeria is not a country that lacks resources or capacities to defend itself against terrorism. The problem is rather the lack of political will. And no external aid could possibly improve the situation unless it is met by a local partner that is truly devoted to solving the problem.
Although in principle Nigeria is cautious about requesting foreign aid and views it as infringement on its sovereignty, so far the president Goodluck Jonathan has stated that he hopes the international help would mean "the beginning of the end of terror in Nigeria". This sudden change of mind is because he is already pressed against the wall. The government is being fiercely criticised for its sluggish and inadequate response to the situation, and there are even calls that the president should resign instead of running for re-election next year. Amnesty International has accused the Nigerian military that they had been warned of the incoming attack, several hours in advance, and took no precautions.
Initially the government was rejecting any chance of negotiations, but last week they suddenly changed the tune and announced they were now open for dialogue (although with the caveat that they preferred "discrete" actions because they didn't want to provoke the hijackers unnecessarily). The problem is, the government does not have much room for maneuvering. The pattern from other Islamist hijackings in the region suggests that it could take years before all girls are released. But if an active rescue mission is launched, there is a risk of a bloodbath, as it happened in similar cases in Kenya and Algeria last year. In the past Boko Haram and the government had indeed negotiated prisoner/hostage exchange without much ado. Which shows that there is still a good chance to get back the girls for a substantial ransom. But that would only cement Boko Haram's position, and that is a problem. If we add the big public attention that the group has garnered with these hijackings, it is no surprise that many believe even in the best case scenario this story would not end very well. Of course no one can know for sure how it will all end, but there just don't seem to be too many good scenarios right now. And regardless of the direction the events would take, be it negotiation or a risky rescue mission, it would still be a bumpy ride full of dangers.
Last year Jonathan declared an emergency situation in three affected states (Borno, Yobe and Adamawa). But since then Boko Haram has only increased its attacks and the unrest has entered its bloodiest stage yet, the number of civilian victims tripling. The government army claims they are poorly equipped and are lacking the firepower of their rivals. And yet, Nigeria's defense budget for this year is over $ 6 billion, which is twice its education budget. But the result is not more efficient defense forces, more security or an end of the conflict. And that naturally brings the question, where all this money is sinking.
And it's not like Boko Haram is just some lame foe who doesn't know what they are doing. They are something more than a guerrilla movement. Hundreds of militants from that group regularly enter villages, driving armed vehicles and wielding chainguns. No one knows for sure how many troops they have, but the number is definitely in the thousands. It is unclear who finances them. There are theories that they make the bulk of their cash through collecting ransom from recent hijackings of foreigners, and bank robbery. The government suspects they are enjoying support from various politicians and top military officials, and they are relying on jihadist groups like the Somalian Ash-Shabaab and Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. The gradual improvement and sohistication of their attacks suggests that their militants have been trained abroad. Some testimonies point out that they are recruiting from among the poor people in neighbouring countries like Chad and Niger, and paying them to fight for them.
However, the shocking hijacking of the Nigerian schoolgirls has stirred such an unanimous international condemnation, even from hardline Islamic countries, that some analysts are forecasting that few people would want to have anything to do with Boko Haram for a very long time. It seems this time the group has indeed gone too far. Even figures who would normally support Boko Haram's fight against the Nigerian government are now notably silent (including Al Qaeda). But on the other hand, this incident has provided the jihadists with such worldwide exposition that they could interpret that as a tremendous success anyway. Meanwhile, there are opinions that the involvement of countries like the US, UK and Israel would actually further complicate the efforts for the girls' release. The reason is that Boko Haram has a deep hatred for those countries and could demonstratively harden their position in attempt to humiliate the Western powers and increase its significance in the eyes of the global jihadist movement.
Boko Haram's activity through the years is already giving results in Nigeria. More and more Nigerians are reluctant to send their kids to school out of fear for their safety. There is a staggering number of 10 million children who never enter class, most of them girls. Rather than sitting in class and studying, they are forcefully married at an early age. As for the boys, they often become new recruits for the terrorists. The school where the 200 girls were taken from is one of the last remaining schools in the area. The entire education system in North Nigeria is threatened with collapse. Since 2012 thousands of kids have been forced to abandon school in Yobe, Kaduna, Adamawa, Borno and other states. Many teachers have fled to other states for fear of repercussions.
Nigeria, with its population of 170 million, is the most densely populated country in Africa and the largest economy on the continent (GDP=510 billion dollars, and an annual economic growth of 7% for the last decade). It is also one of the leading oil producers in the world. But the predominantly Muslim North-East (where Boko Haram mostly operates) is poor and underdeveloped in comparison to the rest of the country. The money that should be spent for infrastructure is going to the ever more swelling defense budget and for re-building the homes that Boko Haram frequently destroys. There is almost no trace left of the oil boom in those regions. There is a chronic energy shortage, 70% of the population lives on less than a dollar per day, youth unemployment approaches 80%, and the illiteracy and disease rates are staggering. As David Francis says, one of the first Western reporters to ever write about Boko Haram, "Most of the foot soldiers of Boko Haram aren't Muslim fanatics; they're poor kids who were turned against their corrupt country by a charismatic leader".
The main reason that Nigeria has such a huge security problem is that it is a resource-based economy. To a large extent it suffers of its inherent inequalities and social discrepancies. Everyone is desperately trying to snatch as large a piece of the oil pie as possible, and income from that oil production is extremely unevenly distributed. And this is what creates perfect conditions for all these conflicts.
Meanwhile, the president Goodluck Jonathan is being ever more openly accused of incompetence. We should also add the inexplicable indifference towards the pain of the families of the hijacked girls, which the government demonstrated in the first days after the incident. It took the head of state more than two weeks to actually start speaking on the subject publicly. The slow reaction of the authorities and their inability to even specify how many the missing schoolgirls were, have provoked enormous protests across the country. And they have reminded us that where government is weak, corrupt or non-existent, the message of extremist groups like Boko Haram tends to resonate with particular intensity. Until that is changed, the jihadist leaders will continue to prop up their twisted notion of fundamentalist religion as an antidote for all of society's illnesses.