The Arctic standoff
Canadians perceive themselves as a proud northern nation. The new 50 CAD bill displays the ice-breaker Amundsen, which is also an explorer ship. "The north is part of the Canadian soul", an official document on Arctic foreign policy says, endorsed by the government ot Stephen Harper. One of his priorities is the active presence in the defense of the state sovereignty of the North.
The Canadian north is really huge, but it is very sparsely populated (not more than 110 thousand inhabitants). It is true that Canada has certain territorial disputes with the US and Denmark, but these are not viewed as a national security problem. The new dynamic in the region mostly comes from the melting of the polar ice cap.
Unlike the Antarctic, the Arctic is not a continent, it is actually an ocean. And in recent times, climate change has been particularly well pronounced in the northern latitudes, where the water area is expanding at the expense of the ice shield. This is opening new territories for navigation, and promises new opportunities for exploiting hypothetical or established deposits of natural resources.
And still, the mythical Northeastern passage cannot be released of the ice overnight, and turn into a cheap and easy route between Asia and Europe. According to data from the Canadian navy, the entire 5,500 km route including West Greenland, the Beaufort Sea and the Bering Strait between Alaska and Russia, is teaming with ice hazards. The other route, the so called Northeastern passage, which passes along the Russian northern coast, is currently far more accessible for ships. Furthermore, Russia has an entire fleet of ice-breakers at its disposal for facilitating its activities in the northern regions. Canada has 18 ice-breakers, out of which only two are heavyweight.
A few years ago the Canadian government promoted an ambitious plan for the modernisation of its Arctic fleet with new ships. But financial problems have lead to a serious delay in the realisation of these intentions.
In many areas of Arctica, the extraction of natural riches has started a long time ago. Data from the US Institute of Geology shows that the region beyond the Polar circle (north of the 66th degree) abounds of natural resources. It is estimated that there are about 90 billion barrels of oil, nearly 47 billion cubic metres of natural gas, and 44 billion barrels of gas condensate. In rough estimates, 135 billion barrels of oil and condensates could meet the world's fuel needs for the next 4 years.
Whatever differences Canada and Russia may have, like those around the situation in Ukraine, the governments in Ottawa and Moscow do have something in common. Both want the North pole for themselves. It was as early as 2007 that the Russians planted their flag at the sea bed under the North pole, and recently Canada informed the UN of its own claims to that legendary location.
But the prospect of a hot war over the still frozen North pole are looking slim for the time being. If for anything, due to the well-established cooperation in the so called Arctic Council. All eight Arctic countries are members, 5 of which are NATO members. In the annual report assessing the risks for national security that the Norwegian ministry of defense regularly issues, it is written that the Arctic countries agree to discuss their differences on particular positions within the frames of the international organisations. Exactly when this will change, and the increasing hunger for national resources will sharpen the tone and open a new front in the emerging new geopolitical standoff, is hard to predict. But it probably won't take too long before the nice words give way to poorly concealed passive-aggressive rhetoric, and then maybe something more.
The Canadian north is really huge, but it is very sparsely populated (not more than 110 thousand inhabitants). It is true that Canada has certain territorial disputes with the US and Denmark, but these are not viewed as a national security problem. The new dynamic in the region mostly comes from the melting of the polar ice cap.
Unlike the Antarctic, the Arctic is not a continent, it is actually an ocean. And in recent times, climate change has been particularly well pronounced in the northern latitudes, where the water area is expanding at the expense of the ice shield. This is opening new territories for navigation, and promises new opportunities for exploiting hypothetical or established deposits of natural resources.
And still, the mythical Northeastern passage cannot be released of the ice overnight, and turn into a cheap and easy route between Asia and Europe. According to data from the Canadian navy, the entire 5,500 km route including West Greenland, the Beaufort Sea and the Bering Strait between Alaska and Russia, is teaming with ice hazards. The other route, the so called Northeastern passage, which passes along the Russian northern coast, is currently far more accessible for ships. Furthermore, Russia has an entire fleet of ice-breakers at its disposal for facilitating its activities in the northern regions. Canada has 18 ice-breakers, out of which only two are heavyweight.
A few years ago the Canadian government promoted an ambitious plan for the modernisation of its Arctic fleet with new ships. But financial problems have lead to a serious delay in the realisation of these intentions.
In many areas of Arctica, the extraction of natural riches has started a long time ago. Data from the US Institute of Geology shows that the region beyond the Polar circle (north of the 66th degree) abounds of natural resources. It is estimated that there are about 90 billion barrels of oil, nearly 47 billion cubic metres of natural gas, and 44 billion barrels of gas condensate. In rough estimates, 135 billion barrels of oil and condensates could meet the world's fuel needs for the next 4 years.
Whatever differences Canada and Russia may have, like those around the situation in Ukraine, the governments in Ottawa and Moscow do have something in common. Both want the North pole for themselves. It was as early as 2007 that the Russians planted their flag at the sea bed under the North pole, and recently Canada informed the UN of its own claims to that legendary location.
But the prospect of a hot war over the still frozen North pole are looking slim for the time being. If for anything, due to the well-established cooperation in the so called Arctic Council. All eight Arctic countries are members, 5 of which are NATO members. In the annual report assessing the risks for national security that the Norwegian ministry of defense regularly issues, it is written that the Arctic countries agree to discuss their differences on particular positions within the frames of the international organisations. Exactly when this will change, and the increasing hunger for national resources will sharpen the tone and open a new front in the emerging new geopolitical standoff, is hard to predict. But it probably won't take too long before the nice words give way to poorly concealed passive-aggressive rhetoric, and then maybe something more.