A drought is coming
Yesterday was the World Water Day, an occasion that is meant to raise awareness about the water issues of the world. And it's not like there aren't any. Water consumption has never been as high as it is today, and it is only bound to be increasing more, because of population growth, population mobility, social change and particularly the expansion of the middle class in the emerging economies, water use for producing biofuels, and of course, climate change.
The access to basic water-related services (fresh drinking water, sewerage, and food production) continues to be insufficient in large parts of the developing world. The scenario of doing business-as-usual means approximately 5 billion people (that is 67% of the world's population) are likely going to remain depraved of adequate sewerage, 780 million lacking access to clean water - and that problem is not changing any time soon. Although the current tendencies point to 90% of the global population having some access to fresh water sources, in the meantime progress in the development of sewerage systems remains inadequate for the time being. And that is directly related to mass epidemics.
The connection between poverty and water resources is clear: the number of people with extremely low life expectancy and that of the people living with $ 1.25 a day shows a striking similarity, as does the number of people without safe access to fresh drinking water. This situation causes major health problems, and puts a burden on health-care systems around the world. Almost 80% of all diseases in the developing countries are related to water, causing about 3 million early, preventable deaths. For example, 5000 children die every day of diarrhea, which makes one child in every 17 seconds. As a whole, about 1/10 of all diseases around the world could be prevented through improving water supply, sewerage, general hygiene, and water management.
While such large swaths of population still lack adequate access to water, the water consumption has grown to unprecedented levels. Fresh-water extraction has tripled for the last half a century, the irrigative area doubling for the same period. This phenomenon is particularly tightly connected to population growth. The global population, which as of now amounts to 6.7 billion, is growing by 80 million every year. This means that the water demand is increasing by 64 billion cubic meters per year. And still, 90% of the population of the world that is expected to grow by 3 billion for the next half a century, will be in the developing countries - in regions which are already suffering severe water shortages. This will inevitably create enormous social, economic and political tensions, which will reflect on the entire world, including the developed countries, the problem backfiring very harshly on the Firt World. As has been said, the next major wars will be fought over water, not so much over oil, or trade routes.
Population growth means an increase of the demand for agricultural products as well, so the water demand will be directly affected there, too. The agriculture sector is by far the biggest consumer of water (70% of the water consumption, compared to 20% for industry and 10% for households). And if irrigation is not optimised soon, the water demand for agriculture alone will have increased betwen 70% and 90% by 2050 - although in a number of countries it is already reaching and even surpassing the critical levels.
Meanwhile, there have been changes in the way of life and the food habits as a whole, particularly an increased share of the dairy and meat products that are consumed in the developing countries. For the production of a kilo of wheat, between 800 and 4000 litres of water are necessary, while a kilo of beef requires between 2000 and 16000 litres. Some assessments show that the Chinese consumers, who in 1985 used to eat 20 kg of meat for a year, in 2009 have consumed 50 kg more (i.e. a total of 70 kg). This means extra 390 m3 of water consumed for a single person for one year. In comparison, in 2002 the per capita meat consumption in Sweden was 76 kg, and 125 kg in the US.
The production of biofuels has also increased drastically for the last few years, which also has a considerable effect on water demand. The ethanol production in 2008 was 77 million litres, tripling since 2000, and expected to reach 127 million litres by 2017. Brazil and the US, which combined make up 77% of the world's supply, are the two major producers. In 2007, 23% of the US corn production and 54% of the Brazilian sugar-cane production was used for producing ethanol. In 2008, 47% of the plant oils produced by the EU were used for biofuel.
Still, despite the increasd use of plant cultures for biofuels, the share of the overall production remains below the critical levels. In 2008 the share of ethanol on the fuels market was 4.5% in the US, 40% in Brazil, and 2.2% in the EU. Reports on the subject show that, despite its potential to help decrease the dependence on fossil fuels, biofuel production, with its current level of technology, will create a disproportionate pressure on biodiversity. The main problem is the need for huge amounts of water and fertilisers. Suffice to say that between 1000 and 4000 litres of water are necessary for the production of a single litre of biofuel. This means that by tackling one problem, we are aggravating another.
In the meantime, the global demand for energy keeps increasing, with all the consequences on the water resources that it brings. The global energy needs are expected to grow by 53% by 2030. China and India alone will provide 45% of that increase. The production of electricity at hydro power plants is expected to be growing at its current average annual rate of 1.7% since 2004 to a total growth of 60% by 2030.
Although being criticised for their heavy imprint on the environment and their proneness to require the removal of large numbers of people from their ancestral lands, the construction of additional dams seems to be at least one possible solution, as these ultimately decrease the need for fossil fuels, as far as electricity production is concerned. The necessity to shift towards clean energy sources and to use the potential of the additional water and energy storages could provide more flexibility and compensate for some of the negative effects of climate change on the economy. The energy aspect is particularly important for the developing countries, in many of which the potential for creating a highly efficient water-based energy system is formidable. But that, of course, wuold first require enormous investments that those countries cannot possibly provide on their own without going into enormous, unpayable debt; and adequate policies, which obviously is a major obstacle more often than not in those parts. But the further this is being delayed now, the more severely the problem will hit later. And I can assure you, it will not be confined to the Third World.
The access to basic water-related services (fresh drinking water, sewerage, and food production) continues to be insufficient in large parts of the developing world. The scenario of doing business-as-usual means approximately 5 billion people (that is 67% of the world's population) are likely going to remain depraved of adequate sewerage, 780 million lacking access to clean water - and that problem is not changing any time soon. Although the current tendencies point to 90% of the global population having some access to fresh water sources, in the meantime progress in the development of sewerage systems remains inadequate for the time being. And that is directly related to mass epidemics.
The connection between poverty and water resources is clear: the number of people with extremely low life expectancy and that of the people living with $ 1.25 a day shows a striking similarity, as does the number of people without safe access to fresh drinking water. This situation causes major health problems, and puts a burden on health-care systems around the world. Almost 80% of all diseases in the developing countries are related to water, causing about 3 million early, preventable deaths. For example, 5000 children die every day of diarrhea, which makes one child in every 17 seconds. As a whole, about 1/10 of all diseases around the world could be prevented through improving water supply, sewerage, general hygiene, and water management.
While such large swaths of population still lack adequate access to water, the water consumption has grown to unprecedented levels. Fresh-water extraction has tripled for the last half a century, the irrigative area doubling for the same period. This phenomenon is particularly tightly connected to population growth. The global population, which as of now amounts to 6.7 billion, is growing by 80 million every year. This means that the water demand is increasing by 64 billion cubic meters per year. And still, 90% of the population of the world that is expected to grow by 3 billion for the next half a century, will be in the developing countries - in regions which are already suffering severe water shortages. This will inevitably create enormous social, economic and political tensions, which will reflect on the entire world, including the developed countries, the problem backfiring very harshly on the Firt World. As has been said, the next major wars will be fought over water, not so much over oil, or trade routes.
Population growth means an increase of the demand for agricultural products as well, so the water demand will be directly affected there, too. The agriculture sector is by far the biggest consumer of water (70% of the water consumption, compared to 20% for industry and 10% for households). And if irrigation is not optimised soon, the water demand for agriculture alone will have increased betwen 70% and 90% by 2050 - although in a number of countries it is already reaching and even surpassing the critical levels.
Meanwhile, there have been changes in the way of life and the food habits as a whole, particularly an increased share of the dairy and meat products that are consumed in the developing countries. For the production of a kilo of wheat, between 800 and 4000 litres of water are necessary, while a kilo of beef requires between 2000 and 16000 litres. Some assessments show that the Chinese consumers, who in 1985 used to eat 20 kg of meat for a year, in 2009 have consumed 50 kg more (i.e. a total of 70 kg). This means extra 390 m3 of water consumed for a single person for one year. In comparison, in 2002 the per capita meat consumption in Sweden was 76 kg, and 125 kg in the US.
The production of biofuels has also increased drastically for the last few years, which also has a considerable effect on water demand. The ethanol production in 2008 was 77 million litres, tripling since 2000, and expected to reach 127 million litres by 2017. Brazil and the US, which combined make up 77% of the world's supply, are the two major producers. In 2007, 23% of the US corn production and 54% of the Brazilian sugar-cane production was used for producing ethanol. In 2008, 47% of the plant oils produced by the EU were used for biofuel.
Still, despite the increasd use of plant cultures for biofuels, the share of the overall production remains below the critical levels. In 2008 the share of ethanol on the fuels market was 4.5% in the US, 40% in Brazil, and 2.2% in the EU. Reports on the subject show that, despite its potential to help decrease the dependence on fossil fuels, biofuel production, with its current level of technology, will create a disproportionate pressure on biodiversity. The main problem is the need for huge amounts of water and fertilisers. Suffice to say that between 1000 and 4000 litres of water are necessary for the production of a single litre of biofuel. This means that by tackling one problem, we are aggravating another.
In the meantime, the global demand for energy keeps increasing, with all the consequences on the water resources that it brings. The global energy needs are expected to grow by 53% by 2030. China and India alone will provide 45% of that increase. The production of electricity at hydro power plants is expected to be growing at its current average annual rate of 1.7% since 2004 to a total growth of 60% by 2030.
Although being criticised for their heavy imprint on the environment and their proneness to require the removal of large numbers of people from their ancestral lands, the construction of additional dams seems to be at least one possible solution, as these ultimately decrease the need for fossil fuels, as far as electricity production is concerned. The necessity to shift towards clean energy sources and to use the potential of the additional water and energy storages could provide more flexibility and compensate for some of the negative effects of climate change on the economy. The energy aspect is particularly important for the developing countries, in many of which the potential for creating a highly efficient water-based energy system is formidable. But that, of course, wuold first require enormous investments that those countries cannot possibly provide on their own without going into enormous, unpayable debt; and adequate policies, which obviously is a major obstacle more often than not in those parts. But the further this is being delayed now, the more severely the problem will hit later. And I can assure you, it will not be confined to the Third World.