End of the Saakashvili era
There's an election going on in Georgia as we speak (the country Georgia, the one in the Caucasus). And it marks the end of an era. The era of Mikheil Saakashvili. After two terms at the helm, he doesn't have the right to run again for president. So he's stepping down. But the deep mark he left in the Georgian society remains.
For about a decade, Saakashvili has changed the country like no one before him. 10 years ago he was the hero of the so called Rose Revolution. The one that made Georgia the first former Soviet republic to change the regime after mass popular demonstrations. The reason for the protests were the forged results of the parliamentary elections in 2003. Three weeks after the protests erupted, the then president Eduard Shevardnadze was forced to resign. And in January 2004 Saakashvili won the presidential election and started vast reforms.
Everything looked as if the country was taking huge leaps towards the West at the time. Saakashvili started with changing the entire state apparatus and promoting a number of new figures, ones he could trust. His measures against police corruption were largely recognized, even by his detractors. During his rule the Russian language continued to lose influence in the Georgian society, to the point where it became virtually absent from people's everyday life. On the international front, the president took a sharp turn away from Russia and made steps to closer relations with the US. His dream was to bring Georgia into NATO, but that still hasn't happened.
Initially, the West was very happy with the reforms. There was a lot of praise for the bold young president. But with time, the accusations of authoritarianism started to mount. And when in 2008 Georgia lost the war with Russia for the runaway South Ossetia province, his popularity tumbled pretty fast, to reach the current 25%.
It's true that Saakashvili can't run for a third presidential term, but what's worse for him, it started to become clear as early as a year ago that his time was running out politically altogether. Last autumn his party lost the majority at the parliamentary elections, the newly formed Georgian Dream party of billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili taking over, its leader becoming the prime minister. And his former minister of education, Giorgi Margvelashvili is now considered the frontrunner at today's presidential election. A possible victory for Margvelashvili could mean the end of the so called "cohabitation", that political situation designed after the French model where the president and the prime minister are of two different parties.
But the expectations are rather that there would be a second round of the elections. Some polls suggest a little over 50% for the front-runner, others are not so sure. The second place is being contested between David Bakradze of Saakashvili's party and the former speakeress of parliament, Nino Burdzhanadze.
But the most interesting part is what the fate of the incumbent would ultimately be after he steps down. And I do mean, would he be prosecuted or not, and put behind bars. There's this inclination in the ruling party that Saakashvili should stand in court on charges of abuse of power during the suppression of the latest protests. The former prime minister and general secretary of Saakashvili's party, Vano Merabishvili, has been detained on charges of corruption since May. And he's joined behind bars by a former minister of defense. Some may be interpreting these measures as settling scores between political rivals, while others say it's only justice being served to those who deserve it. In any case, things are looking bad for Saakashvili and his dwindling supporters.
But one thing is for sure. No matter who wins today's election, the next Georgian president would definitely have less power than the previous one. Because a recent amendment in the constitution curbs the president's prerogatives in favor of the prime minister. But the current PM Ivanishvili doesn't seem willing to take advantage of that. He has already announced that after today's election he'd be filing his resignation.
For about a decade, Saakashvili has changed the country like no one before him. 10 years ago he was the hero of the so called Rose Revolution. The one that made Georgia the first former Soviet republic to change the regime after mass popular demonstrations. The reason for the protests were the forged results of the parliamentary elections in 2003. Three weeks after the protests erupted, the then president Eduard Shevardnadze was forced to resign. And in January 2004 Saakashvili won the presidential election and started vast reforms.
Everything looked as if the country was taking huge leaps towards the West at the time. Saakashvili started with changing the entire state apparatus and promoting a number of new figures, ones he could trust. His measures against police corruption were largely recognized, even by his detractors. During his rule the Russian language continued to lose influence in the Georgian society, to the point where it became virtually absent from people's everyday life. On the international front, the president took a sharp turn away from Russia and made steps to closer relations with the US. His dream was to bring Georgia into NATO, but that still hasn't happened.
Initially, the West was very happy with the reforms. There was a lot of praise for the bold young president. But with time, the accusations of authoritarianism started to mount. And when in 2008 Georgia lost the war with Russia for the runaway South Ossetia province, his popularity tumbled pretty fast, to reach the current 25%.
It's true that Saakashvili can't run for a third presidential term, but what's worse for him, it started to become clear as early as a year ago that his time was running out politically altogether. Last autumn his party lost the majority at the parliamentary elections, the newly formed Georgian Dream party of billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili taking over, its leader becoming the prime minister. And his former minister of education, Giorgi Margvelashvili is now considered the frontrunner at today's presidential election. A possible victory for Margvelashvili could mean the end of the so called "cohabitation", that political situation designed after the French model where the president and the prime minister are of two different parties.
But the expectations are rather that there would be a second round of the elections. Some polls suggest a little over 50% for the front-runner, others are not so sure. The second place is being contested between David Bakradze of Saakashvili's party and the former speakeress of parliament, Nino Burdzhanadze.
But the most interesting part is what the fate of the incumbent would ultimately be after he steps down. And I do mean, would he be prosecuted or not, and put behind bars. There's this inclination in the ruling party that Saakashvili should stand in court on charges of abuse of power during the suppression of the latest protests. The former prime minister and general secretary of Saakashvili's party, Vano Merabishvili, has been detained on charges of corruption since May. And he's joined behind bars by a former minister of defense. Some may be interpreting these measures as settling scores between political rivals, while others say it's only justice being served to those who deserve it. In any case, things are looking bad for Saakashvili and his dwindling supporters.
But one thing is for sure. No matter who wins today's election, the next Georgian president would definitely have less power than the previous one. Because a recent amendment in the constitution curbs the president's prerogatives in favor of the prime minister. But the current PM Ivanishvili doesn't seem willing to take advantage of that. He has already announced that after today's election he'd be filing his resignation.