Return of the zombie king
"This is like a horror movie! The zombies keep coming back!" This reaction was in the otherwise rather colorless and dull German public radio Deutschlandfunk. But still, it was, like, one of the most reserved among all reactions in this media storm which has started after the announcement of former Italian prime-minister Berlusconi that he's planning to return into politics.
Since he was forced to resign about a year ago, he kept promising that he was going to leave active politics for good. But Berlusconi still possessed both the tools and the reasons not to keep his vows. So many remained skeptical about his promises, and as it turns out, they were right.
Within just a couple of days he has managed to ignite the political scene not just in Rome but across Europe. After his People of Freedom party withdrew its support for the interim expert government of Mario Monti the technocrat, Berlusconi announced he was going to run on the coming parliamentary elections. Hours later, Monti announced he'd resign immediately after the 2013 budget was voted, which means Italy is now heading towards elections ahead of term - possibly in February or March.
This means that many of the reforms Monti had planned would have to wait for a few more months. Meanwhile, the very idea that Berlusconi could return to the PM post in Rome, is causing sleepless nights in many European capitals. The reaction of the financial markets didn't come late either - the interest rates on the Italian debt started climbing again, after having reached the lowest levels in two years. And with this, some of the old fears about the future of the third biggest European economy were resurrected.
In the recent months, Berlusconi was often critical of the anti-crisis measures and he even contested the very idea of Italy staying in the Euro-zone. He resorted to his trademark populism, and brought it to unprecedented extremes. Although it looks highly unlikely, his return to the PM post could have heavy consequences for both Italy and the EU. And, even if it doesn't happen, the negative effects from his decision to run again will be felt throughout the whole campaign.
"I'll be running for victory. And again, I'll do it out of a sense of responsibility". With these cynical words, Berlusconi announced that he would try to become Italy's PM for the third time. However the polls show that his party is 3rd in popularity, with less than 18% of approval, behind the Democratic Party (35%) and the new kid on the block, the populist Five Star Movement of the comedian Beppe Grillo (20%). Yeah, go figure! So, it's hard to expect a Berlusconi victory this time. And, I'm sure most people are already aware that the use of the word "responsibility" sounds weird to say the least, when uttered by a man who even today keeps claiming that Italy being at the brink of financial collapse at the time he handed the scepter to Monti, was a "colossal lie". His argument? You see, the hotels and restaurants across the country are full to the top, so this must mean there's no crisis. Epic logic!
So, behind the pathos-filled rhetoric, we should be looking for the real reasons for his comeback. And as always, in Berlusconi's case they're as political as much as personal. First, there's this draft bill which would render all Italian citizens with 2+ years of criminal sentence behind their back, unfit for running for public office. And the thing is, Berlusconi has already received a 4-year sentence for tax fraud, so this law, if enacted, could end his direct participation in Italian politics for good. Any elections ahead of term would automatically make this bill impossible to pass, so there's the catch.
In the meantime, Berlusconi's party is at the brink of falling apart. It's been unable to find a successor for its former leader, and if that doesn't happen soon, they're risking to remain outside the parliament. The People of Freedom is pretty much a one-man party - Berlusconi created it, he supported it from his own pocket, its members are united in their different agendas only because of their allegiance to their leader, being bound by their intertwined relations and personal dependencies from him. Without him they'd have no reason to remain together. It's telling that when Berlusconi announced his return, most of the internal conflicts within the party instantly faded away.
Now more united, and moreover, actively supported by the magnate's vast media empire, the chances of People for Freedom to get into the next parliament are increasing - especially in the Senate. It's where the separate regions send their representatives by a majoritarian principle, and the winning party or coalition in a given region takes all the seats (the well-known electoral college). It's common knowledge that Berlusconi's party still has some support in Northern Italy, and it could rely on some good results in the race for Senate.
In fact, Berlusconi's decision to return to politics looks like an act of utter desperation, if we look from a certain angle. It obviously minimizes most conflicts in his party and absolves him of responsibility for his crimes by granting him immunity while seated in parliament. But some people even within his party continue to distrust him and want him out, like former foreign minister Franco Frattini who keeps criticizing him openly, and who didn't comply with the party line when they decided to withdraw their support from Monti's government. Frattini will likely splinter from the party and create a faction of his own which would be in support of Monti.
Meanwhile, Roberto Maroni, the leader of Berlusconi's long-time coalition ally, the Northern League, announced that Berlusconi should quit his plans to return to the PM post, before any negotiations for running together at the elections have been started. Of course the position of the Northern League could change overnight (and they've already said they wouldn't support Monti either), but it's pretty clear that without a Berlusconi-Maroni alliance, the chances of creating a significant center-right coalition that could form a government, remain in the realm of fiction. And this means that Berlusconi will most likely stay in opposition. And he doesn't like such a situation.
(2008 electoral map)
Berlusconi is probably hoping that the Senate would be disunited and broken to pieces, so he could gain more weight in decision-making. He's hoping for a situation where he may not be able to rule, but still he'll be able to get in the way of anyone ruling. But even such a situation is doubtful, since the Northern League is a key player in the exact same regions where Berlusconi relies to get votes. So they'll be both rivals and potential allies at the same time, and Maroni doesn't like that situation either.
One thing is almost certain at this point. The future Italian government will be formed by a coalition led by the center-left Democratic Party, plus some lesser centrist formations, grouped around Mario Monti. And the name of the next PM will most likely be Pier Luigi Bersani, who won the internal elections in his party earlier this month, and quite convincingly. The main question is whether Monti would become president, or he'd rather opt for the chair of minister of the economy (or minister of finance). The scenario where Monti again becomes PM now looks very unlikely, because Bersani's popularity is on the rise. And there's no logic if he relinquishes the PM post to Monti. But on the other hand, Monti's authority both on the international and the domestic scene is still fairly high (~40%), even if his people are not necessarily fascinated with his tough policies.
The good news for Italy and Europe is that Bersani understands pretty well how necessary it is to carry on with the reforms that Monti initiated. And the very fact that he'll be elected by the majority of Italians would give him greater legitimacy and freedom for making some tough decisions, than any technocratic government could ever have. And that's a political capital worth using in a wise way.
The bad thing is that during the coming election campaign, Berlusconi will keep poisoning the well, using his powerful media machine to spew tons of populist bullshit into public space, and craft all sorts of seemingly nationalistic accusations about "the dictate of Berlin and Brussels". If anything, this could have enough negative effect to turn lots of people away from the right path that Italy has recently taken, and what's worse, it could scare off the financial markets and bring the efforts for saving the Euro-zone a few squares back. Whether the Italians have taken their lessons from the last few years, we'll see when the election comes.