The scramble for Cyprus

[mahnmut]

Now this is a slightly different sort of scramble, though. Two ethnic communities sharing (or rather, dividing) the same island, racing for the better access to the newly found gas deposits in the sea. Sounds like a crappy reality show on TV? Nope, we're broadcasting live from Cyprus, the isle of Aphrodite.

Comments

[htpcl]

Israel didn't wait for too long to start creating its alliance to counter Turkey's growing influence.
http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/israels-new-allies-6441

"Today's realities-which include both already radicalized and radicalizing neighboring Arab states and parties and increasingly militant non-Arab Muslim states in an outer ring (Turkey, Iran, Pakistan)-have prompted Israel to expand its concept of the potentially friendly or even aligned "periphery" to include such states as Azerbaijan, India, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania and (Greek) Cyprus."

We're not only living in interesting times, but we here are living at an interesting place, I'm afraid.

[luzribeiro]

Any chance that Israel and its rivals meet the 2012 deadline for the Mayan/Biblical Armageddon?

[sandwichwarrior]

Off course there's a chance.

Rumor on the Milblogs is that the Isreali hardliners are not too pleased with the current administration and the recent riots have them jumpy. Baraka is with the islamists and there is an increasing sentiment that Isreal will either need to surrender ground (both political and physical) or go on the offensive.

[underlankers]

God help them if they have to fight real soldiers again. Their advantage of the past of having the only combat-hardened veteran leadership in the region no longer exists. And when both sides are equally inexperienced, this favors in the long term the side with the greater quantity. Which is not Israel.

[gunslnger]

The Mayan armageddon is not political, it's geophysical.

[luvdovz]

The fight for domination in the East Mediterranean has brought Turkey on the confrontation path with most of its neighbors. Including some of its traditional best trade partners. This can't end well for them.

[sophia_sadek]

I love the nomenclature: the Leviathan off the coast of Israel and Aphrodite off the coast of Cyprus.

[peamasii]

Israel has about twice the military power of Turkey, let me guess who's going to win the pissing contest in Cyprus.

[mahnmut]

I doubt Israel wants an all-out military confrontation with somebody like Turkey at this point, and viceversa. This is not a pub brawl we're talking about here.

[peamasii]

It's not that force would need to actually get used, but the scales would tip in their favor.

[allhatnocattle]

In terms of non-military force Israel has great influence over USA policy but little elsewhere. But Turkey has significant non-military influence.

It's only when military force is used or at least threatened that the scales tip in Israel's favour. But since we agree that Israel doesn't want that sort of confrontation then the scales is clearly in Turkey's favour.