A little more time, you say?
Geia sou, filoi mou! Cheers, my comrades! Now... as tradition says, set this song to play in a different tab/browser (you know, just for atmosphere), and imagine the following situation. Keramoti, Northern Greece. It's the small town just opposite the Thasos island, where most Bulgarians like to spend their holidays whenever they head into Greece. And head into Greece they do by the hordes, oh sure they do! So here's this small taverna by the ferry quay. The chequered table clothes are white and tidy, a scent of anise and shrimp is floating in the air. The pints at the pub have Paulaner labeled on them. Now, Paulaner is a famous Bavarian beer brand. The parasols outside the pub also have a Paulaner inscription on them. So I figure I could order a German beer here, to go well with my fried octopus tentacles. But when I oder a Paulaner beer, all I get is a frown, then a conspiratorial wink from the bartender: "We don't offer German beer here anymore. But I'll give you a better one. A new white ale from Greece, it has won many awards!"
Then he brings me a Vergina Weiss, and explains they had stopped selling any German beer a few months ago. No Greek would ever drink that German stuff anyway... Oh, do I feel the love!
The region around Kavala where Keramoti is, is not exactly in the center of the Greek tourism industry. Not even close. Well, maybe a bit further away from the center (because Greek tourism pops up virtually behind every corner around these sun-baked rocks). Sure, there are a few nice beaches on Thasos, but it's not very popular compared to the Cyclades, Crete or even the Chalkidiki peninsula with the weird theocratic "almost-state" of Athos perched at one of its sub-peninsulas. The larger international tour operators stay away from these shores. And Neckermann and TUI will definitely be staying away for a long time to come, and would rather opt for Turkey and Bulgaria instead; HA! A win-win. ;-)
But still, Keramoti is teaming with local tourists from Northern Greece, and Bulgarians as well. Every second car is Bulgarian. As for the Northern Greek people, those are true connoisseurs of good food and good nature (although I can't help but notice they almost don't have any forests there; the thick lush greenery suddenly stops right at the BG/GR border, dammit). They've largely remained outside and away from the mass riots of the anarchists in the big cities, from the protest signs with Angela Merkel's face depicted as a Hitler, and all the Molotov cocktails and the riot police with their pesky batons and helmets. But still, no single person in Keramoti, from the bartender to the owner of the rooms for rent opposite the beach, nor all the visitors in the tavern next to the small church, would remain indifferent to Greece's current problems. It's not in their blood to bypass any political topic. They'd discuss it all to death over a game of domino and a bottle of ouzo and a juicy souvlaki.
The amateur analysis of the situation usually begins with an attempt at self-criticism and even admission: "We're to blame too, kindasorta. But..." There's always a "BUT", which in Greek sounds like "alla". After the second tsipouro, we soon move to the essence of things, i.e. bashing the "bad Germans" who want to impose their will on everybody. The rampant disdain for "Big Germany" that's trying to "crush our cute little Greece under its boot" can be felt to a various extent in most opinions, after a short 5-minute opinion poll throughout the pub audience has been performed in the form of buying them all a drink or two. One conclusion rubs itself right into your face from a first sight. The average Hellene doesn't quite love the Germans, that's for sure!
"Very, very bad", one guy named Kostas describes the situation. He's a middle-aged guy, with a good education, and until very recently, a very nice job in Athens. He used to work for a big German automobile giant until last month. But unfortunately the labor layoff didn't miss him, and now he's now trying to make ends meet, running a small family restaurant.
"It's not true that they're harder workers than we are", he rants. "In Greece you would see no one working from 9am to 5pm, then getting extra pay. How many times did I have to stay late in the evening at work, and work during weekends too? And what do I get then? Do I get extra money? NO! I even didn't take any afternoon naps!" And that's a very un-Greek thing, I can tell you. Because you can hardly find any shop or institution working between 2pm and 4pm in any Greek city. No matter private or state owned. In his eyes, Greece has been cruelly wronged. And as a protest, Kostas and his pals have stopped buying anything bearing the stick Made in Germany, hoping to symbolically hurt Bad Germany. He claims many of his friends and relatives have joined the nationwide boycott. Thousands, millions of them. He looks at his wife for confirmation, and she nods. Her story is quite standard. She had worked as a well-paid teacher in an elite language school in Athens, but now things have changed: "No one wants to learn German these days. Kids avoid it, probably because their parents told them to".
Another middle-aged guy intones from the neighboring table. He says he's not from Keramoti. He's running a small business, and fortunately the crisis still hasn't swept it away, unlike those of hundreds of other people who've seen their shops and cafes shut down in the nearby city Kavala. Between two large gulps of ouzo, the guy raises a half-empty bottle and then shares his story: "If I sell a box of these for 100 bucks for instance, and then pay all the taxes and excises, I'd probably get about 5 bucks at the end of it. All the rest would go who-knows-where. Our system is broken, young lad. It's a system that doesn't work, never has. So why should I pour my tax money into this broken bucket!?" A compelling argument, I'll give you that. If you disregard all the stuff the government has built for you, nameless Greek guy, so you could run your business. But who am I to argue?
Many Greeks are entrapped in a similar vicious circle, struggling to preserve their businesses. The trouble has spread so far and deep that after just a week spent in Greece, you'd hardly ever receive a cash receipt at any shop or market or restaurant, or hotel, or tavern. I sure didn't. Which, again, must show how broken the bucket that is their tax system, really is.
Both my new pal Kostas and the next-table-guy believe the Germans has mistreated their country and all of them. One of their arguments is that Greece is spending its money to protect Europe's borders along the Schengen borders. "We pay from our pocket so those Europeans could feel safe from aliens", Kostas says. A voice comes from the next table: "Is that the EU we had pushed so hard into? If this is it, then we don't want it anymore!"
And thus, from one table to another, from one tavern to another, the negative attitude to the Germans gradually takes specific dimensions and shape. For the last 3 years for instance, the German exports for Greece have shrunken by 30%, while they've kept growing to all other EU countries. This distrust is obviously mutual, because this summer all tour operators, hotel keepers and media are reporting a drastic withdrawal of German tourists from Greece. Which is news very welcomed by the rest of us, because it means the Greeks are more prone to making discounts now. ;-)
But one thing both sides are compelled to acknowledge is that no matter how much they may or may not distrust each other, Greeks and Germans will have to work together somehow or other. The Greek PM Samaras begged for a 2-year delay of the deadline for doing all the budget reforms that the EU rescue plan has required of them. That was the focus of his meetings with Merkel and Hollande.
Samaras keeps claiming that Greece needs "some room to take a breath", and more time of course, so it could adopt all the hard measures for austerity and reform properly. In response, Hollande and Merkel met a day before their respective meetings with him, to set their watches right. Their joint message was that Greece cannot expect any reviewing of the conditions if it doesn't show clear signs that it's fulfilling its commitments. Germany has said several times that there can be no further postponement and concessions from the Big Three about the deadlines and nature of the reforms. This seemingly firm position is certainly very "politically correct", especially in front of their respective voters. But somehow I suspect it's rather hollow on the inside. And Germany and France will again say "OK, fine then", I suspect. Because, let's face it, a rejection of Greece's pleas would automatically mean kicking Greece out of the Euro zone, and the disease spreading into the German and French banking system, as many of their major banks will be stung hard, and be forced to swallow the scratching off of a big amount of capital from their portfolios. And that's the last thing they both need at this point.
So Berlin and Paris have no other option but to keep on keeping on, provided they still haven't decided what Greece's fate should be in the long run. We're already hearing some hints around the press about small concessions here and there, and further reviewing of the rescue plan, the conditions, and the interest rates on Greece's new loans. And it's again likely going to be the same old same old, Greece being given more ground for compromise - a thing we've all seen two or three times in the past already. Some people will never learn, right?
Jean-Claude Juncker's message (the chairman of the Eurogroup) was interpreted positively, after he returned from his visit to Greece last week. He basically left the door ajar for a possible 2-week extension of the deadline, but this decision ultimately depends on the Big Three creditors (EU, ECB and IMF) and how they perceive Greece's progress. And that'll be known next month. Experts from this Grand Triad are expected to spend a few weeks in Greece in September, and then report to the Eurogroup on October 8.
"The ball is in Greece's court now", Juncker said at a joint press conference with Samaras, and added that Greece is doing "tremendous efforts" to cut its deficit. But he also warned that this is Greece's "last chance" to do the necessary economic and structure reforms, including very tough ones on the labor market, and an effort to restart the promised privatization programs that've been halted for months.
Samaras has one main argument in favor of his request for a 2-year delay. It's that his country is falling behind schedule with the austerity program, mostly due to the elections earlier this year, and it needs more time, in order to move gradually and at least partially mitigate the pains the regular Greeks are feeling these days. "I want to be clear - we do not require additional funding. But in order to achieve growth, first we have to cut the deficit", Samaras said. Well no shit, Captain Obvious? He also warned about the possible consequences from a hypothetical exodus from the Euro zone: "This would mean at least another 5 years of recession, and over 40% unemployment. A nightmare scenario for Greece - an economic collapse, social unrest, and unprecedented crisis of democracy". An apocalyptic prediction that ought to have scared those powdered Euro poodles in Brussels, that's for sure.
Meanwhile, there are some optimistic signs. For example, in Germany itself a rising chorus of voices appears to be in favor of giving Greece "some more time", during which its economy could return to a growth mode. If at all. Only if. First thing is to see if Greece is willing to make the painful decisions that would be key to saving its economy in the short-term.
Whether Greece's begging for a delay would be respected, now entirely depends on the report of the Big Three. There's a widespread notion that unless Greece starts doing real reform, it has no future in the Euro zone because its economy is utterly incompetitive. So in the next few weeks, up to a month, Greece will have to demonstrate its readiness to take more serious political decisions, and this time not just in words. All the nice statements and promises of its politicians, and all the pub rants of its citizens notwithstanding.
The thing is... neither the French nor the Germans really want Greece out of the Euro zone. But there are other ways to take some of the burden of the rescue plan, I would think. Some ways that are not necessarily related to pushing the deadlines further into the unforeseeable future. For instance: lowering the interest rates on the debt. And accelerated privatization of the most unmanageable sectors of the economy. But Greece's willingness to work hard on that part is the key factor in the equation. Not what Merkel or Hollande are saying.
One thing is for sure. No 100% conclusions could be made before the report of the Big Three has come out. For the time being, all we know is that there are clear agreements between the Three and Greece. And all Greece needs to do is to work hard to fulfill its commitments. If the Three conclude that the Greeks have done their part of the job, then they'll of course proceed with the next stage of the rescue plan. If not, then things start reeking. But so far the general impression is that Greece would more likely be unable to keep its promises, like privatizing state assets worth $50 billion for example. The German minister of finance Schäuble has just said as much. Giving them more time is not a solution to the problems. And he warned that "more time" could mean "more money" as well. And the German financial aid for Greece might've already passed beyond the point of making sense anymore.
If the report shows that our southern beighbor is completely dedicated to fulfilling its commitments, then sure, Athens will get its "breath of air" that it so much wants. But since the people who'll wlcome the EU/ECB/IMF reps to their country are those same folks who throw Molotovs at the German embassy and burn effigies of Merkel dressed up as Hitler, and call the Germans the new-old Nazis, and keep ranting about "the German oppression", then what could we possibly the result to be? And, at the end of the day, the reforms that are now being expected of Greece are ones that should lead to the strict observation of the law, and those cashier receipts being printed everywhere - around shops, restaurants, hotels, markets - everywhere. And tell you what... no one in Greece seems likely to start issuing the small papers any time soon.
But still, Germany and France will say "Oh, OK then", once more. I can bet my meager Bulgarian monthly salary on that.
Then he brings me a Vergina Weiss, and explains they had stopped selling any German beer a few months ago. No Greek would ever drink that German stuff anyway... Oh, do I feel the love!
The region around Kavala where Keramoti is, is not exactly in the center of the Greek tourism industry. Not even close. Well, maybe a bit further away from the center (because Greek tourism pops up virtually behind every corner around these sun-baked rocks). Sure, there are a few nice beaches on Thasos, but it's not very popular compared to the Cyclades, Crete or even the Chalkidiki peninsula with the weird theocratic "almost-state" of Athos perched at one of its sub-peninsulas. The larger international tour operators stay away from these shores. And Neckermann and TUI will definitely be staying away for a long time to come, and would rather opt for Turkey and Bulgaria instead; HA! A win-win. ;-)
But still, Keramoti is teaming with local tourists from Northern Greece, and Bulgarians as well. Every second car is Bulgarian. As for the Northern Greek people, those are true connoisseurs of good food and good nature (although I can't help but notice they almost don't have any forests there; the thick lush greenery suddenly stops right at the BG/GR border, dammit). They've largely remained outside and away from the mass riots of the anarchists in the big cities, from the protest signs with Angela Merkel's face depicted as a Hitler, and all the Molotov cocktails and the riot police with their pesky batons and helmets. But still, no single person in Keramoti, from the bartender to the owner of the rooms for rent opposite the beach, nor all the visitors in the tavern next to the small church, would remain indifferent to Greece's current problems. It's not in their blood to bypass any political topic. They'd discuss it all to death over a game of domino and a bottle of ouzo and a juicy souvlaki.
The amateur analysis of the situation usually begins with an attempt at self-criticism and even admission: "We're to blame too, kindasorta. But..." There's always a "BUT", which in Greek sounds like "alla". After the second tsipouro, we soon move to the essence of things, i.e. bashing the "bad Germans" who want to impose their will on everybody. The rampant disdain for "Big Germany" that's trying to "crush our cute little Greece under its boot" can be felt to a various extent in most opinions, after a short 5-minute opinion poll throughout the pub audience has been performed in the form of buying them all a drink or two. One conclusion rubs itself right into your face from a first sight. The average Hellene doesn't quite love the Germans, that's for sure!
"Very, very bad", one guy named Kostas describes the situation. He's a middle-aged guy, with a good education, and until very recently, a very nice job in Athens. He used to work for a big German automobile giant until last month. But unfortunately the labor layoff didn't miss him, and now he's now trying to make ends meet, running a small family restaurant.
"It's not true that they're harder workers than we are", he rants. "In Greece you would see no one working from 9am to 5pm, then getting extra pay. How many times did I have to stay late in the evening at work, and work during weekends too? And what do I get then? Do I get extra money? NO! I even didn't take any afternoon naps!" And that's a very un-Greek thing, I can tell you. Because you can hardly find any shop or institution working between 2pm and 4pm in any Greek city. No matter private or state owned. In his eyes, Greece has been cruelly wronged. And as a protest, Kostas and his pals have stopped buying anything bearing the stick Made in Germany, hoping to symbolically hurt Bad Germany. He claims many of his friends and relatives have joined the nationwide boycott. Thousands, millions of them. He looks at his wife for confirmation, and she nods. Her story is quite standard. She had worked as a well-paid teacher in an elite language school in Athens, but now things have changed: "No one wants to learn German these days. Kids avoid it, probably because their parents told them to".
Another middle-aged guy intones from the neighboring table. He says he's not from Keramoti. He's running a small business, and fortunately the crisis still hasn't swept it away, unlike those of hundreds of other people who've seen their shops and cafes shut down in the nearby city Kavala. Between two large gulps of ouzo, the guy raises a half-empty bottle and then shares his story: "If I sell a box of these for 100 bucks for instance, and then pay all the taxes and excises, I'd probably get about 5 bucks at the end of it. All the rest would go who-knows-where. Our system is broken, young lad. It's a system that doesn't work, never has. So why should I pour my tax money into this broken bucket!?" A compelling argument, I'll give you that. If you disregard all the stuff the government has built for you, nameless Greek guy, so you could run your business. But who am I to argue?
Many Greeks are entrapped in a similar vicious circle, struggling to preserve their businesses. The trouble has spread so far and deep that after just a week spent in Greece, you'd hardly ever receive a cash receipt at any shop or market or restaurant, or hotel, or tavern. I sure didn't. Which, again, must show how broken the bucket that is their tax system, really is.
Both my new pal Kostas and the next-table-guy believe the Germans has mistreated their country and all of them. One of their arguments is that Greece is spending its money to protect Europe's borders along the Schengen borders. "We pay from our pocket so those Europeans could feel safe from aliens", Kostas says. A voice comes from the next table: "Is that the EU we had pushed so hard into? If this is it, then we don't want it anymore!"
And thus, from one table to another, from one tavern to another, the negative attitude to the Germans gradually takes specific dimensions and shape. For the last 3 years for instance, the German exports for Greece have shrunken by 30%, while they've kept growing to all other EU countries. This distrust is obviously mutual, because this summer all tour operators, hotel keepers and media are reporting a drastic withdrawal of German tourists from Greece. Which is news very welcomed by the rest of us, because it means the Greeks are more prone to making discounts now. ;-)
But one thing both sides are compelled to acknowledge is that no matter how much they may or may not distrust each other, Greeks and Germans will have to work together somehow or other. The Greek PM Samaras begged for a 2-year delay of the deadline for doing all the budget reforms that the EU rescue plan has required of them. That was the focus of his meetings with Merkel and Hollande.
Samaras keeps claiming that Greece needs "some room to take a breath", and more time of course, so it could adopt all the hard measures for austerity and reform properly. In response, Hollande and Merkel met a day before their respective meetings with him, to set their watches right. Their joint message was that Greece cannot expect any reviewing of the conditions if it doesn't show clear signs that it's fulfilling its commitments. Germany has said several times that there can be no further postponement and concessions from the Big Three about the deadlines and nature of the reforms. This seemingly firm position is certainly very "politically correct", especially in front of their respective voters. But somehow I suspect it's rather hollow on the inside. And Germany and France will again say "OK, fine then", I suspect. Because, let's face it, a rejection of Greece's pleas would automatically mean kicking Greece out of the Euro zone, and the disease spreading into the German and French banking system, as many of their major banks will be stung hard, and be forced to swallow the scratching off of a big amount of capital from their portfolios. And that's the last thing they both need at this point.
So Berlin and Paris have no other option but to keep on keeping on, provided they still haven't decided what Greece's fate should be in the long run. We're already hearing some hints around the press about small concessions here and there, and further reviewing of the rescue plan, the conditions, and the interest rates on Greece's new loans. And it's again likely going to be the same old same old, Greece being given more ground for compromise - a thing we've all seen two or three times in the past already. Some people will never learn, right?
Jean-Claude Juncker's message (the chairman of the Eurogroup) was interpreted positively, after he returned from his visit to Greece last week. He basically left the door ajar for a possible 2-week extension of the deadline, but this decision ultimately depends on the Big Three creditors (EU, ECB and IMF) and how they perceive Greece's progress. And that'll be known next month. Experts from this Grand Triad are expected to spend a few weeks in Greece in September, and then report to the Eurogroup on October 8.
"The ball is in Greece's court now", Juncker said at a joint press conference with Samaras, and added that Greece is doing "tremendous efforts" to cut its deficit. But he also warned that this is Greece's "last chance" to do the necessary economic and structure reforms, including very tough ones on the labor market, and an effort to restart the promised privatization programs that've been halted for months.
Samaras has one main argument in favor of his request for a 2-year delay. It's that his country is falling behind schedule with the austerity program, mostly due to the elections earlier this year, and it needs more time, in order to move gradually and at least partially mitigate the pains the regular Greeks are feeling these days. "I want to be clear - we do not require additional funding. But in order to achieve growth, first we have to cut the deficit", Samaras said. Well no shit, Captain Obvious? He also warned about the possible consequences from a hypothetical exodus from the Euro zone: "This would mean at least another 5 years of recession, and over 40% unemployment. A nightmare scenario for Greece - an economic collapse, social unrest, and unprecedented crisis of democracy". An apocalyptic prediction that ought to have scared those powdered Euro poodles in Brussels, that's for sure.
Meanwhile, there are some optimistic signs. For example, in Germany itself a rising chorus of voices appears to be in favor of giving Greece "some more time", during which its economy could return to a growth mode. If at all. Only if. First thing is to see if Greece is willing to make the painful decisions that would be key to saving its economy in the short-term.
Whether Greece's begging for a delay would be respected, now entirely depends on the report of the Big Three. There's a widespread notion that unless Greece starts doing real reform, it has no future in the Euro zone because its economy is utterly incompetitive. So in the next few weeks, up to a month, Greece will have to demonstrate its readiness to take more serious political decisions, and this time not just in words. All the nice statements and promises of its politicians, and all the pub rants of its citizens notwithstanding.
The thing is... neither the French nor the Germans really want Greece out of the Euro zone. But there are other ways to take some of the burden of the rescue plan, I would think. Some ways that are not necessarily related to pushing the deadlines further into the unforeseeable future. For instance: lowering the interest rates on the debt. And accelerated privatization of the most unmanageable sectors of the economy. But Greece's willingness to work hard on that part is the key factor in the equation. Not what Merkel or Hollande are saying.
One thing is for sure. No 100% conclusions could be made before the report of the Big Three has come out. For the time being, all we know is that there are clear agreements between the Three and Greece. And all Greece needs to do is to work hard to fulfill its commitments. If the Three conclude that the Greeks have done their part of the job, then they'll of course proceed with the next stage of the rescue plan. If not, then things start reeking. But so far the general impression is that Greece would more likely be unable to keep its promises, like privatizing state assets worth $50 billion for example. The German minister of finance Schäuble has just said as much. Giving them more time is not a solution to the problems. And he warned that "more time" could mean "more money" as well. And the German financial aid for Greece might've already passed beyond the point of making sense anymore.
If the report shows that our southern beighbor is completely dedicated to fulfilling its commitments, then sure, Athens will get its "breath of air" that it so much wants. But since the people who'll wlcome the EU/ECB/IMF reps to their country are those same folks who throw Molotovs at the German embassy and burn effigies of Merkel dressed up as Hitler, and call the Germans the new-old Nazis, and keep ranting about "the German oppression", then what could we possibly the result to be? And, at the end of the day, the reforms that are now being expected of Greece are ones that should lead to the strict observation of the law, and those cashier receipts being printed everywhere - around shops, restaurants, hotels, markets - everywhere. And tell you what... no one in Greece seems likely to start issuing the small papers any time soon.
But still, Germany and France will say "Oh, OK then", once more. I can bet my meager Bulgarian monthly salary on that.