The return of the Putin III
I think this vid is pretty succinct, how'dya think? Well, the exit polls are unambiguous. There'll be no 2nd round, Putin wins the presidential election in Russia. 58-60% roughly. And no surprise there.
The result was anticipated, and is hardly a shock for anybody. More important is what the opposition's reaction would be and what are Putin's next moves. He'll have to choose between reform or constant protests, repressions and economic stagnation. Whichever way he chooses, he'll have to relinquish absolutist power. Why? Well, let's see why.
First, about the vote. Today the central streets of Moscow and St.Petersburg were blocked by military trucks an thousands of troops. It was like martial law. The opposition is planning to begin protests on Monday, and on Sunday only pro-Putin rallies were allowed. Meanwhile the ministry of internal affairs decided to deploy a small army that could easily overtake a medium-sized city.
The first data from the exit polls showed about 50% turnout, which would be just about enough to conveniently shut the mouths of the critics who were ready to claim that the elections are illegitimate because they don't reflect the will of the people.
There were lots of complaints that no true choice and no real alternative to Putin had been presented. All other 4 candidates were unelectable clowns (see video above) - the commie Zyuganov, the ultra-nationalist Zhirinovski, the former speaker of parliament Mironov and the billionaire Prokhorov (prior post here). Others are convinced that Putin is "Our Father" and the only strong choice, the Savior who has the energy and competence to lead the largest country in the world (and incidentally, the richest in natural resources). "I'll vote for Putin because he's a good president and he'll take care of our children, our future" (literal translation from a Russian ЖЖ-er).
Others are hatin' on his macho image and they despise the system he has created, the one that has made Russia look like... well, Russia. It has always been like that, come to think of it - be it the Romanovs, Stalin, or the Soviet mummies. Seems like the old proverb is true after all: Every Nation Deserves The Leaders It Gets.
So, given the specifics of the Russian constitution (very conveniently shaped btw), Putin could hypothetically reign from his throne in Kremlin until 2024. Unless another change of constitution happens, which would proclaim him emperor. But still, 2024 sounds nice. That'll be a reign almost as long as Stalin's. Congrats, Russia.
This time it didn't go so as easily for Putin as it may look like, though. Initially he underestimated the protests against the rigged parliamentary elections last December. He didn't even try to conceal his condescension when he called the white ribbons that were the symbol of the Fair Elections movement "a bunch of unwrapped condoms". But his election campaign went in a completely different tone - after all, Putin had to be re-elected in order to stop the resurgence of anarchy in the country - that was his main message (as if he was almost saying that his puppy Medvedev had allowed anarchy back into the country; which may make you wonder how come he'll nominate him for prime-minister again - and you can be sure that he will).
But, like Masha Gessen said on Jon Stewart's show last Wednesday (bold lady indeed), there are three pillars upon which Putin's power structure rests: 1) fear, 2) connections, and 3) money. And the fear factor has now been taken out of the equation. Now Putin will have to deal with the winds of change that are sweeping across the Russian cities. Moscow is holding its breath. The police is everywhere. What will happen from here on, might very much depend on how much per cents Putin wins. If he wins a lot, like more than 60-70%, then a radicalisation of the situation is very possible. But if he wins much less, then he could prove prone to concessions in order to ease the tensions.
Putin could respond to the bottom-up push for change in two possible ways. He could either make concessions or he could try to suppress it with force. But either way, he's in a lose-lose situation because either scenario would weaken his power, albeit in a different way. His KGB past, his authoritarian reputation and his increasingly anti-West rhetoric are creating suspicions that he'll choose the hard way. And this would mean further encapsulating of the regime, more repressions against the media, crushing the protests, persecuting the opposition, and flexing geopolitical muscles in Europe and the UN Security Council. And thus Putin's new term could prove a real nightmare.
The new/old president of Russia could choose reform of course - new parliamentary elections, freer media, releasing the political prisoners. But that looks highly unlikely. And either way, all of this would only weaken his grip on power. The harder he tries, the more it'll be slipping away.
All indications are that the end of the authoritarian rule in Russia can be already spotted on the horizon. But what will follow after that... Now, that is a very disturbing question.