Good point

[sutematsu]

This is the best argument on Global Warming that I have ever seen. I have to admit that I've always been a little skeptical about the whole idea of Global Warming. *dodges numerous frying pans that are now careening at her head* When mom was a kid, it was all about how the world was moving toward another Global Ice Age, and that we needed to do

Comments

[lawngnomeslayer]

I can poke a small hole in his claims but I still think he's right.

the hole lies in the good result of the action column is not as good as the good result of the inaction column. What he doesn't mention is that even if we were right and we took action and we prevented global climate change we would still be suffering a global economic depression...

[jigpu]

He dosen't explain it, but he does mention it. Actually, throwing in percentage likelyhoods like he suggests (as well as quantifying the total good/bad of each) can allow you to choose the best "lottery ticket" as it were.

| Action | Inaction |
-------------------------------------------
GW False | Really bad | Same |
GW True | Bad | Freaking terrible |
-------------------------------------------

Assuming the worst cases of each scenario are what occurs, and that there is a 50/50 chance of GW being true, we're left with the following result on average:

Average case of action: Pretty bad.
Average case of inaction: Really bad.

Modify the chance that GW is true and you modify the average case, which is why its still important to figure out what the heck is going on.

[jigpu]

table pwn3d by the avatar XD

[lawngnomeslayer]

I think you missed my point somewhere...

I shall use table... it seems to be the only way to explain stuff around here...

---------|Action | Inaction |
-------------------------------------------
GW False | bad | Same |
GW True | Bad | Freaking terrible |
-------------------------------------------

In the action column... it doesn't matter if we were right or not because the outcome would be the same. Surely if we were right and we prevented a global disaster then we would have a sense of accomplishment in changing our fate but the outcome is still the same.

however there may be a point during our action in which we can say we have made a substantial effort to fix the possible problem and we realize that GW is false then we can switch to column 2 midway through. I guess this would be a third column in between action and inaction.

oh and there's also a possibility that no matter how much action we take that it will just never be enough.

[lawngnomeslayer]

Table pwn3d by me forgetting to preserve spaces

[jigpu]

Ah, but I would debate that *both* values under action would be just as "bad". Though I don't have much to back up my claim :D

[lawngnomeslayer]

Uhhh I think that's what I said... but now I'm confused...

Awesome tables just arn't the same when not accompanied by giant pointer sticks...