Black swan
Warren Buffett recently wrote about getting back into the equities market. He said he can't predict market movements, whether his stocks will rise.
Another recent read was about this book called 'the black swan' which says that experts seldom account for extraordinary events (such as seeing a black swan on a lake).
If you consider the two pieces, what buffett is saying that his strategy is basically trusting that the markets are efficient and that he will be rewarded over time for trusting the market. If that were the case, my dad - a risk averse person as any - would have billions to give away to charity a la Buffett.
I believe the only way to be the next Buffett is to make the first million is by finding the black swan and then coasting along on efficient markets.
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