CFUW 131 - Tiffany

Sep 12, 2011 15:43

Any insights?

cfuw

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runstowardsfire September 12 2011, 23:13:07 UTC
Hello again.

I mentioned this before, but it is getting increasing likely that we did not have a wolf in the first ousting poll. There were probably two wolves voting in the first suspicion poll as either Chie or Guy is a wolf.

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succubusting September 12 2011, 23:36:15 UTC
I saw you'd said that. I don't know if I can be that confident. It's possible, but from my perspective, a lot of it comes down to if Narumi or Annie is a wolf. If Narumi is... then the wolves had two votes. On the other hand, if it's Annie, there really might only be one wolf voting in the first poll.

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runstowardsfire September 12 2011, 23:50:01 UTC
Interestingly enough, Rika, Garrus and Ankh were tied at 2 votes each until you and Garrus subsequently put Rika and Ankh in the lead in the suspicion poll. Garrau would have the excuse that he'd definitely vote for one of the other two.

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succubusting September 12 2011, 23:55:59 UTC
Any vote I made would have been a tie breaker. I don't deny that I was wrong about Ankh, but I went with the best I had at that point.

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runstowardsfire September 13 2011, 00:02:36 UTC
I see. Also, on the second ousting, everyone bar Lincoln who voted on Guy in the suspicion poll switched to Lambda on the ousting poll . . .

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succubusting September 13 2011, 00:07:38 UTC
I can't speak for anyone else, but I can tell you why I changed my vote. In fact, I can open my locked post to Lee to you if you want. Then you can see for yourself.

Lee and I both agreed that Chie didn't seem as suspicious as Lambdadelta, and that Guy just hadn't been around enough to judge. During ousting, Lambdadelta's logic took a turn for the sketch, so I voted for her.

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succubusting September 13 2011, 00:09:36 UTC
runstowardsfire September 13 2011, 00:18:23 UTC
Thank you. *reads* So you arranged it with Lincoln beforehand . . .

To add to one of your points, I found Chie confusing too, but she could have been confused herself. Though it made me more suspicious over time. Especially now when we know that no wolves have been ousted. That's why I leaned towards Guy and Chie and eventually Guy.

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succubusting September 13 2011, 00:30:49 UTC
We did. I thought it was between the two of them, and if I had to pick the wolf from the second clue right at this moment, I think I'd still go for his and hope our impressions weren't completely off.

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runstowardsfire September 13 2011, 00:43:48 UTC
The listening to his heart thing could be how he really is, but he could be using it to mask his intentions too. His participation pattern could be due to chance or calculation, which fudges the issue a lot.

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succubusting September 13 2011, 00:50:32 UTC
It really does. We don't even have first day votes to check things against.

It also means we can't see, between Garrus and Rika, who he might have protected, which is something I'd really like to know right now.

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runstowardsfire September 13 2011, 00:55:27 UTC
There is a possibility that Garrus is a wolf because he has a tendency to watch which way the vote swings . . . or that he's voting on gut instinct.

Which is a little strange because gut instinct means you vote first instead of watching the votes stack up.

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succubusting September 13 2011, 01:23:36 UTC
I'm not entirely sure about that. It might be true, but it also might mean that they like seeing what other voters are doing. From the sound of it, his get kicked in when he saw the pile up.

I'm not really... I don't mean to defend Garrus exactly. I don't think he's unsuspicious. In the end, he's voted, but he hasn't actually been around a lot. I tried opening a private post to him, but it didn't get far at all.

The more I think about it, the more I think that the wolves might not have been able to influence the first day's voting as much as we might have assumed. You might not trust me, but as it stands, at most only two wolves voted in the suspicion poll, and there's the possibility only one did. From my perspective, only two wolves voted in ousting at most-I've already said I'm leaning toward Guy in second clue, which means that Garrus may have been the only wolf voting in ousting or that if Rika was the wolf none of them may have been able to vote ( ... )

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runstowardsfire September 13 2011, 01:46:48 UTC
I see . . . Rika seems to be telling me that you're not a wolf if someone else is though.

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succubusting September 13 2011, 01:56:17 UTC
I'm confused. Me personally, or in general? There is only one wolf in each clue, so...

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runstowardsfire September 13 2011, 01:58:37 UTC
You personally by the sound of it.

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