More Iowa links, and Nate Silver's analysis
- The Daily Beast compiles a whole slew of mainstream media stories on Iowa's ruling. A lot of good stories there, including coverage of the generational shift on gay marriage, the GOP shift (with special attention to Gov. Huntsman of Utah), Iowa's constitutional amendment laws that may prevent this decision from being overturned until 2013, et al.
- The Des Moines Register estimates that around 2,000 people - most in Des Moines and Iowa City - gathered in the streets to celebrate yesterday's ruling. A man at the University of Northern Iowa campus in Cedar Falls held up a sign that read, "Corn-fed and Ready to Wed!"
- Liberal commentator J.E. Morrison analyzes the actual ruling, Varnum v. Brien, and is underwhelmed.
- The A.P. predicts that same-sex marriages could begin as soon as April 24. Why April 24 and the second after the ruling was declared? As with most Iowa Supreme Court decisions, the counties have a little time to make necessary changes to the laws, practices, or policies affected.
The A.P. article is the first I've read that cites 2014 - not 2012 or 2013 - as the earliest that yesterday's ruling could be overturned by a constitutional amendment. That's encouraging, but the confusion over these dates is a little disheartening. 2012? 2013? 2014? Which is it? Of course, the optimist in me wants to place a moratorium on all liberal discussion of such dates. Why assume that the people of Iowa will be rallying to overturn this decision at the earliest possible date? Because, I suppose, if it can happen in California, it can happen in Iowa.
On that note, my perpetual man-crush Nate Silver applies his unique brand of systematic analysis to the question of whether or not Iowans - not Iowa Republicans or Iowa Democrats or Iowa Evangelicals, but Iowans - would oppose a gay marriage ban, if given the chance to vote. Using a strange but fascinating model to predict public opinion over time, Silver predicts in which year each of the 50 states would "vote against a [same-sex] marriage ban." His answer for Iowa? 2013. Thus, the difference between 2012, 2013, and 2014 could be huge.
I've included the list of years and states below (asterisks alongside those states that have previously passed amendments to ban gay marriage). Some of the model's predictions may surprise you. Silver writes, "The model predicts that by 2012, almost half of the 50 states would vote against a marriage ban, including several states that had previously voted to ban it. In fact, voters in Oregon, Nevada and Alaska (which Sarah Palin aside, is far more libertarian than culturally conservative) might already have second thoughts about the marriage bans that they'd previously passed. By 2016, only a handful of states in the Deep South would vote to ban gay marriage, with Mississippi being the last one to come around in 2024."
2009 (now): Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Maine, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Nevada*, Washington, Alaska*, New York, Oregon*
2010: California*, Hawaii, Montana*, New Jersey, Colorado*
2011: Wyoming, Delaware, Idaho*, Arizona*
2012: Wisconsin*, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Illinois
2013: Michigan*, Minnesota, Iowa, Ohio*, Utah*, Florida*
2014: New Mexico, North Dakota*, Nebraska*, South Dakota*
2015: Indiana, Virginia*, West Virginia, Kansas*
2016: Missouri*
2018: Texas*
2019: North Carolina, Louisiana*, Georgia*
2020: Kentucky*
2021: South Carolina*, Oklahoma*
2022: Tennessee*, Arkansas*
2023: Alabama*
2024: Mississippi*
- The Des Moines Register estimates that around 2,000 people - most in Des Moines and Iowa City - gathered in the streets to celebrate yesterday's ruling. A man at the University of Northern Iowa campus in Cedar Falls held up a sign that read, "Corn-fed and Ready to Wed!"
- Liberal commentator J.E. Morrison analyzes the actual ruling, Varnum v. Brien, and is underwhelmed.
- The A.P. predicts that same-sex marriages could begin as soon as April 24. Why April 24 and the second after the ruling was declared? As with most Iowa Supreme Court decisions, the counties have a little time to make necessary changes to the laws, practices, or policies affected.
The A.P. article is the first I've read that cites 2014 - not 2012 or 2013 - as the earliest that yesterday's ruling could be overturned by a constitutional amendment. That's encouraging, but the confusion over these dates is a little disheartening. 2012? 2013? 2014? Which is it? Of course, the optimist in me wants to place a moratorium on all liberal discussion of such dates. Why assume that the people of Iowa will be rallying to overturn this decision at the earliest possible date? Because, I suppose, if it can happen in California, it can happen in Iowa.
On that note, my perpetual man-crush Nate Silver applies his unique brand of systematic analysis to the question of whether or not Iowans - not Iowa Republicans or Iowa Democrats or Iowa Evangelicals, but Iowans - would oppose a gay marriage ban, if given the chance to vote. Using a strange but fascinating model to predict public opinion over time, Silver predicts in which year each of the 50 states would "vote against a [same-sex] marriage ban." His answer for Iowa? 2013. Thus, the difference between 2012, 2013, and 2014 could be huge.
I've included the list of years and states below (asterisks alongside those states that have previously passed amendments to ban gay marriage). Some of the model's predictions may surprise you. Silver writes, "The model predicts that by 2012, almost half of the 50 states would vote against a marriage ban, including several states that had previously voted to ban it. In fact, voters in Oregon, Nevada and Alaska (which Sarah Palin aside, is far more libertarian than culturally conservative) might already have second thoughts about the marriage bans that they'd previously passed. By 2016, only a handful of states in the Deep South would vote to ban gay marriage, with Mississippi being the last one to come around in 2024."
2009 (now): Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Maine, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Nevada*, Washington, Alaska*, New York, Oregon*
2010: California*, Hawaii, Montana*, New Jersey, Colorado*
2011: Wyoming, Delaware, Idaho*, Arizona*
2012: Wisconsin*, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Illinois
2013: Michigan*, Minnesota, Iowa, Ohio*, Utah*, Florida*
2014: New Mexico, North Dakota*, Nebraska*, South Dakota*
2015: Indiana, Virginia*, West Virginia, Kansas*
2016: Missouri*
2018: Texas*
2019: North Carolina, Louisiana*, Georgia*
2020: Kentucky*
2021: South Carolina*, Oklahoma*
2022: Tennessee*, Arkansas*
2023: Alabama*
2024: Mississippi*