Ukraine considers constitution change as Donetsk and Luhansk threaten secession
Earlier today, Supreme Rada narrowly passed an amendment to Ukrainian constitution - but that was just the first reading. It won't actually take effect unless it's approved during the second reading.
I had to poke around a bit to figure out what the amendment actually entails. But going by what I have been able to gather from Kommersant newspaper and RBC news service, the basic idea is that the executive authority in oblasti will move from governors appointed by the Ukranina president to popularly elected legislatures. Oblast and municipal governments will have greater leeway to decide their educational, healthcare, tax levy levels and general budget spending.
"So, kind of like in United States?" my American readers may ask.
Not quite - but if approved, the amendment is poised to give more local control to regional government unis without outright federalism.
It may seem fairly mild, all things considering - but as far as right-wing Radical Party and Svoboda (Freedom) Party were concerned, that's still a threat to Ukraine and unacceptable concession to the Russian-backed separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk. Party members and their supporters protested outside the Rada building, and the protest turned violent. Per BBC, a total of 100 people were injured and one National Guard member was killed.
Protestors and law enforcement clash outside Supreme Rada (via Ivan Kovalechko/Kommersant)
According to Kommersant, 265 MPs wound up voting for the amendment - 39 more than the required minimum of 226. But for the second reading, the minimum is 300 - and it's really not clear whether President Pyotr Poroshenko would be able to cobble together enough votes to clear that threshold.
Meanwhile, Gazeta.ru is reporting strong rumors that the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic are considering doing Crimea/Sevastopol style independence referendums. The timing cannot be a coincidence.
The article cites high-level officials within the Russian federal government (who asked to remain anonymous), who indicated that Russia isn't seriously considering annexing the separatist-held territories. It would put a strain on the already struggling Russian economy, and it would lead to open war between Russia and Ukraine, which Russia doesn't want. Rather, the referendum would be used to put diplomatic pressure on Ukraine and reaffirm the region's loyalty to Russia.
It doesn't take a genius to realize that DPR and LPR wouldn't be happy with Poroshenko's amendment even if does pass. It doesn't give them what they really want - a de facto independence (or at least broad autonomy) within Ukraine without the threat of military attacks. Plus, it's important to remember that DPR and LPR don't actually control the entire Donestk and Luhansk oblasti - just significant chunks of them. Nothing I read about the amendment suggests that the two would be treated as anything other than parts of greater administrative divisions within Ukraine.
Gazeta.ru says that the referenda won't take place until DPR and LPR hold elections - which they plan to do on October 18 and November 1, respectively. The elections have been a point of contention between the separatists and the Ukrainian government for months. Free and fair elections in the territories was one of the conditions of Minsk accords. DPR and LPR governments insist that their election fulfills the condition, while Ukrianina government insists it won't recognize any elections that the separatists organize.
I doubt the election would change anything - there is no meaningful political opposition within separatist-controlled territories. And, as it has been pointed out before, any elections held amidst simmering hostilities, with the current government controlling armed militias, is going to be tainted no matter what happens.
While I am interested to see if Poroshenko actually gets the amendment passed, I doubt it would make any real difference in eastern Ukraine. Not so long as DPR and LPR continues to exist.
The Gazeta.ru article includes this rather depressing summation of the current political situation in Ukraine.
As the result of the deeply rooted disagreements on both sides, there hasn't been any progress on implementing any part of the Minsk agreements for the past year. The diplomatic process has long since turned into the ritual exchange of complaints of violations of Minsk-2 provisions. The only success is the stoppage of large-scale combat operations and the conflict moving into the frozen phase. Another major success was the removal of large-caliber weaponry from the front lines, but this aspect of the treaty has been repeatedly violated for the past few months.
Meanwhile, entire sections of Donetsk and other smaller cities lie in ruins, thousands of people have been displaced and the ones that are left struggle every day.
Nothing changes.
I had to poke around a bit to figure out what the amendment actually entails. But going by what I have been able to gather from Kommersant newspaper and RBC news service, the basic idea is that the executive authority in oblasti will move from governors appointed by the Ukranina president to popularly elected legislatures. Oblast and municipal governments will have greater leeway to decide their educational, healthcare, tax levy levels and general budget spending.
"So, kind of like in United States?" my American readers may ask.
Not quite - but if approved, the amendment is poised to give more local control to regional government unis without outright federalism.
It may seem fairly mild, all things considering - but as far as right-wing Radical Party and Svoboda (Freedom) Party were concerned, that's still a threat to Ukraine and unacceptable concession to the Russian-backed separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk. Party members and their supporters protested outside the Rada building, and the protest turned violent. Per BBC, a total of 100 people were injured and one National Guard member was killed.
Protestors and law enforcement clash outside Supreme Rada (via Ivan Kovalechko/Kommersant)
According to Kommersant, 265 MPs wound up voting for the amendment - 39 more than the required minimum of 226. But for the second reading, the minimum is 300 - and it's really not clear whether President Pyotr Poroshenko would be able to cobble together enough votes to clear that threshold.
Meanwhile, Gazeta.ru is reporting strong rumors that the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic are considering doing Crimea/Sevastopol style independence referendums. The timing cannot be a coincidence.
The article cites high-level officials within the Russian federal government (who asked to remain anonymous), who indicated that Russia isn't seriously considering annexing the separatist-held territories. It would put a strain on the already struggling Russian economy, and it would lead to open war between Russia and Ukraine, which Russia doesn't want. Rather, the referendum would be used to put diplomatic pressure on Ukraine and reaffirm the region's loyalty to Russia.
It doesn't take a genius to realize that DPR and LPR wouldn't be happy with Poroshenko's amendment even if does pass. It doesn't give them what they really want - a de facto independence (or at least broad autonomy) within Ukraine without the threat of military attacks. Plus, it's important to remember that DPR and LPR don't actually control the entire Donestk and Luhansk oblasti - just significant chunks of them. Nothing I read about the amendment suggests that the two would be treated as anything other than parts of greater administrative divisions within Ukraine.
Gazeta.ru says that the referenda won't take place until DPR and LPR hold elections - which they plan to do on October 18 and November 1, respectively. The elections have been a point of contention between the separatists and the Ukrainian government for months. Free and fair elections in the territories was one of the conditions of Minsk accords. DPR and LPR governments insist that their election fulfills the condition, while Ukrianina government insists it won't recognize any elections that the separatists organize.
I doubt the election would change anything - there is no meaningful political opposition within separatist-controlled territories. And, as it has been pointed out before, any elections held amidst simmering hostilities, with the current government controlling armed militias, is going to be tainted no matter what happens.
While I am interested to see if Poroshenko actually gets the amendment passed, I doubt it would make any real difference in eastern Ukraine. Not so long as DPR and LPR continues to exist.
The Gazeta.ru article includes this rather depressing summation of the current political situation in Ukraine.
As the result of the deeply rooted disagreements on both sides, there hasn't been any progress on implementing any part of the Minsk agreements for the past year. The diplomatic process has long since turned into the ritual exchange of complaints of violations of Minsk-2 provisions. The only success is the stoppage of large-scale combat operations and the conflict moving into the frozen phase. Another major success was the removal of large-caliber weaponry from the front lines, but this aspect of the treaty has been repeatedly violated for the past few months.
Meanwhile, entire sections of Donetsk and other smaller cities lie in ruins, thousands of people have been displaced and the ones that are left struggle every day.
Nothing changes.