Are Russian forces behind escalating crisis in Donetsk Oblast? I wouldn't be so sure
Since yesterday, the situation on Donetsk oblast shows no signs of getting better. At 11:00 AM US Central time, the Ukrainian government announced the launch of "wide-scale anti-terrorist operation" against the pro-Russian militias. They're saying the army and air force are going to be involved. As westonian said earlier, this would give perfect pretext for Russian troops to cross the border. While that's growing more likely by the minute, it isn't a sure thing... yet.
In the meantime... Given what happened in Crimea, there has been a lot of speculation that the men that have been taking over police buildings in cities throughout Dontesk Oblast are Russian military. Or, at least, Russian mercenaries. And I'm not convinced of that.
Members of pro-Russian militia guiding seized police headquarters in Sloviansk, Donetsk Oblast (Via Reuters/Gazeta.ru)
I've said before, here and on Facebook, that the notion that Polite Armed Men in Crimea were just ordinary people defied credibility. They wore full military uniforms (without insignia). They were well-armed and well-equipped. They used military vehicles (without license plates and markings). And they stubbornly refused to identify themselves to the press, or anyone.
Looking at the photos of pro-Russian militia forces in Sloviansk and other cities, one gets a somewhat different picture. Some are dressed in military fatigues and vests, while others are dressed in hodge-podge of bits of armor and military-style clothing. Some wore helmets, some didn't. Some had guns, some had baseball bats. And I'm not convinced the weapons they did have wasn't just stuff they raided from police and Ukrainian Security Service buildings they captured.
Now, the PRMs in Sloviansk and some other cities seemed to be well-coordinated, using strategies that suggest law enforcement experience. But there's one possibility everybody seems to be overlooking. Back on Friday, there was a blink-and-you-miss item in Gazeta.ru's round-up of the protest coverage about members of disbanded Donetsk Berkut riot police unit visiting the pro-Russian activists' de-facto headquarters at the regional administration building they seized. The article said they came "for moral support," but what if they worked out a plan with the activists' leaders?
The idea of them helping the militias seems plausible.
Now, I'm not saying that Russia isn't involved at all. I would be shocked if it wasn't doing something - even if it was just covertly providing funding for the pro-Russian activists. But Russian troops, or at least Russian mercenaries, actually helping PRMs? I'm not ruling out, but I'm not convinced, either.
In the meantime... Given what happened in Crimea, there has been a lot of speculation that the men that have been taking over police buildings in cities throughout Dontesk Oblast are Russian military. Or, at least, Russian mercenaries. And I'm not convinced of that.
Members of pro-Russian militia guiding seized police headquarters in Sloviansk, Donetsk Oblast (Via Reuters/Gazeta.ru)
I've said before, here and on Facebook, that the notion that Polite Armed Men in Crimea were just ordinary people defied credibility. They wore full military uniforms (without insignia). They were well-armed and well-equipped. They used military vehicles (without license plates and markings). And they stubbornly refused to identify themselves to the press, or anyone.
Looking at the photos of pro-Russian militia forces in Sloviansk and other cities, one gets a somewhat different picture. Some are dressed in military fatigues and vests, while others are dressed in hodge-podge of bits of armor and military-style clothing. Some wore helmets, some didn't. Some had guns, some had baseball bats. And I'm not convinced the weapons they did have wasn't just stuff they raided from police and Ukrainian Security Service buildings they captured.
Now, the PRMs in Sloviansk and some other cities seemed to be well-coordinated, using strategies that suggest law enforcement experience. But there's one possibility everybody seems to be overlooking. Back on Friday, there was a blink-and-you-miss item in Gazeta.ru's round-up of the protest coverage about members of disbanded Donetsk Berkut riot police unit visiting the pro-Russian activists' de-facto headquarters at the regional administration building they seized. The article said they came "for moral support," but what if they worked out a plan with the activists' leaders?
The idea of them helping the militias seems plausible.
Now, I'm not saying that Russia isn't involved at all. I would be shocked if it wasn't doing something - even if it was just covertly providing funding for the pro-Russian activists. But Russian troops, or at least Russian mercenaries, actually helping PRMs? I'm not ruling out, but I'm not convinced, either.