A closer look at Chicago's declining violent crime rates
Last Saturday, Chicago Sun-Times published a story about a study of Chicago violent crime by Yale professor Andrew Papachristos. The study looked into several things, but the part that got most attention were the parts looking at violent crime rates in Chicago community areas ( as you may recall from an earlier post, community areas are similar, but not necessarily identical, to neighborhoods). The study didn't look at the raw numbers - it looks at the rate of violent crimes per 100,000 people. It compared the crime rate in January - November 2011 (the year the last US Census was taken) and January - November 2013.
The article sums up the biggest takeaways. In most community areas, the number of violent crimes dropped. It's true in Englewood, West Englewood and Austin - which have some of the highest crime rates in the city. It's true in somewhat better off places like Grand Crossing and Washington Park. It's true in reasonably well-off places like Near North and Lincoln Park. It's true in places like my neighborhood and other nearby North Side neighborhoods, which sees more shootings than residents of more well-off areas may be comfortable with, but are still fairly safe. It's even true in Chatham and Calumet Heights - traditionally safe areas that have seen increases in crime. That's unquestionably good news. But the article also points out that there are community areas where violent crime increased.
The article is informative, but it skims over a lot of finer points - and that's something I want to get into.
What would strike most readers is that some of the biggest increases in violent crime happened in community areas that generally considered fairly safe - Mt Greenwood, Monclare, Beverly, Jefferson Park, North Park and Garfield Ridge. Mt Greenwood is particularly striking, since the community area is home to A LOT of cops. As the Sun-Times article notes, because their violent crime rates are so low to begin with, the percentages make the increase look bigger than it actually is. While that's a cause for concern, to be sure, it's important to keep things in perspective.
What I am very concerned about is the community areas that have seen sizable increases and aren't considered as safe as the community areas listed above. South Lawndale contains Little Village - a major port of entry for Mexican immigrants and an area that's been plagued by violent gangs for decades. It's hardly the only Chicago neighborhood with gang problems, but the fact that it's the only only one where violent crime increased should be alarming - and it should warrant further investigation.
Then, there's Washington Heights. As I've written a few years ago, it contains neighborhoods that, while safer than places like Grand Crossing, are not as safe as Beverly, Mt Greenwood and Morgan Park, which are located to the west of it. Ir's violent crime rate has increased by 25%iol - the fourth highest increase in Chicago. Or, to put it in numberical turns, its crime rate increased from 1105 to 1483, going up by 338. In terms of sheer numbers, it's bigger than any other increase.
That increase is alarming enough. But I've argued that the biggest problem for Washington Heights isn't crime - it's high rate of vacancies and struggling business corridors. South Side neighborhoods have hard enough time attracting businesses. This is only going to make things worse.
And then, there's Lakeview. This gentified community area is home to Boystown, Wrigleyville and other neighborhoods that have "Lakeview" in their name somewhere, and it has seen the increase in violent crime by 1.4%. I bring it up separately because, over the past few years, there have been growing concerns about crime in Boystown and nearby neighborhoods, with accusations flying that Boystown based social service agencies attract the "wrong crowd." The controversy over Broadway Youth Center is just the latest example. Me, I've always been a bit skeptical over those claims, as they seem to be directed at the non-white teens and young adults who come from poor neighborhoods. Not because I don't think there aren't any issues - there area, and Windy City Times' Generation Halsted series covers them in various facets quite nicely. My problem is that it's a complex situation that defies easy solutions, but too many Lakeview residents are determined to kick those kids out and let them be someone else's problem.
The increase is only going to inflame the rhetoric even further.
Finally, I wanted to touch on community areas that have seen the most dramatic drops in violent crime. I'm not surprised to see that the fairly well-off Norwood Park and Near North Side neighborhoods have seen dramatic declines. Or that Kenwood, the most successful example of African-American gentrification in Chicago and home to Barack Obama, has seen the violent crime rate decline by 42.3% Or that the gentrifying Near South Side has seen a 31.3% decline. Or in Oakland, which has seen demolishion of a lot of public housing and some attempts at redevelopment.
But there were things that surprised me. I was pleased to see that my neighborhoods and North Side neighborhoods nearby have seen declines. I'm even more pleased that Southeast Side's East Side and Hegewisch neighborhods, which are separated from the rest of the city by Calumet River and railroads, have seen sizable drops after all the talk of potentially rising crime. I'm pleased with drops in Northwest Side's Belmont-Cragin and Southwest Side's Brighton Park for similar reasons. It's also nice to see Avalon Park, a reasonably safe African-American community north of Calumet Heights, has seen declines.
But nothing surprised me (in a good way) quite as much as drops in violent crime in the long-troubled West Pullman and Fuller Park. Its crime rates are still high, but the fact that they dropped by 24% and 40.7% (respectively) should be taken as a good sign. i am curious as to why it happened, though - there's no obvious factor to explain it. Definitely something that deserves further investigation.
Chicago still has ways to go. So long as there are neighborhoods where residents have a pretty good chance of getting taught in the crossfire when they step out the door, Chicago will sitll have ways to go. But, in spite of some troubling numbers, the overall picture is hopeful.
Now, as the Russian expression goes, let's hope stay the course.
If you want to see the numbers for yourself, check out the pdf graphic Sun-Times assembled. Or the Sun-times interactive graphic that lets you look at data on community area basis. You can also read the summary of the study itself for more details.
The article sums up the biggest takeaways. In most community areas, the number of violent crimes dropped. It's true in Englewood, West Englewood and Austin - which have some of the highest crime rates in the city. It's true in somewhat better off places like Grand Crossing and Washington Park. It's true in reasonably well-off places like Near North and Lincoln Park. It's true in places like my neighborhood and other nearby North Side neighborhoods, which sees more shootings than residents of more well-off areas may be comfortable with, but are still fairly safe. It's even true in Chatham and Calumet Heights - traditionally safe areas that have seen increases in crime. That's unquestionably good news. But the article also points out that there are community areas where violent crime increased.
The article is informative, but it skims over a lot of finer points - and that's something I want to get into.
What would strike most readers is that some of the biggest increases in violent crime happened in community areas that generally considered fairly safe - Mt Greenwood, Monclare, Beverly, Jefferson Park, North Park and Garfield Ridge. Mt Greenwood is particularly striking, since the community area is home to A LOT of cops. As the Sun-Times article notes, because their violent crime rates are so low to begin with, the percentages make the increase look bigger than it actually is. While that's a cause for concern, to be sure, it's important to keep things in perspective.
What I am very concerned about is the community areas that have seen sizable increases and aren't considered as safe as the community areas listed above. South Lawndale contains Little Village - a major port of entry for Mexican immigrants and an area that's been plagued by violent gangs for decades. It's hardly the only Chicago neighborhood with gang problems, but the fact that it's the only only one where violent crime increased should be alarming - and it should warrant further investigation.
Then, there's Washington Heights. As I've written a few years ago, it contains neighborhoods that, while safer than places like Grand Crossing, are not as safe as Beverly, Mt Greenwood and Morgan Park, which are located to the west of it. Ir's violent crime rate has increased by 25%iol - the fourth highest increase in Chicago. Or, to put it in numberical turns, its crime rate increased from 1105 to 1483, going up by 338. In terms of sheer numbers, it's bigger than any other increase.
That increase is alarming enough. But I've argued that the biggest problem for Washington Heights isn't crime - it's high rate of vacancies and struggling business corridors. South Side neighborhoods have hard enough time attracting businesses. This is only going to make things worse.
And then, there's Lakeview. This gentified community area is home to Boystown, Wrigleyville and other neighborhoods that have "Lakeview" in their name somewhere, and it has seen the increase in violent crime by 1.4%. I bring it up separately because, over the past few years, there have been growing concerns about crime in Boystown and nearby neighborhoods, with accusations flying that Boystown based social service agencies attract the "wrong crowd." The controversy over Broadway Youth Center is just the latest example. Me, I've always been a bit skeptical over those claims, as they seem to be directed at the non-white teens and young adults who come from poor neighborhoods. Not because I don't think there aren't any issues - there area, and Windy City Times' Generation Halsted series covers them in various facets quite nicely. My problem is that it's a complex situation that defies easy solutions, but too many Lakeview residents are determined to kick those kids out and let them be someone else's problem.
The increase is only going to inflame the rhetoric even further.
Finally, I wanted to touch on community areas that have seen the most dramatic drops in violent crime. I'm not surprised to see that the fairly well-off Norwood Park and Near North Side neighborhoods have seen dramatic declines. Or that Kenwood, the most successful example of African-American gentrification in Chicago and home to Barack Obama, has seen the violent crime rate decline by 42.3% Or that the gentrifying Near South Side has seen a 31.3% decline. Or in Oakland, which has seen demolishion of a lot of public housing and some attempts at redevelopment.
But there were things that surprised me. I was pleased to see that my neighborhoods and North Side neighborhoods nearby have seen declines. I'm even more pleased that Southeast Side's East Side and Hegewisch neighborhods, which are separated from the rest of the city by Calumet River and railroads, have seen sizable drops after all the talk of potentially rising crime. I'm pleased with drops in Northwest Side's Belmont-Cragin and Southwest Side's Brighton Park for similar reasons. It's also nice to see Avalon Park, a reasonably safe African-American community north of Calumet Heights, has seen declines.
But nothing surprised me (in a good way) quite as much as drops in violent crime in the long-troubled West Pullman and Fuller Park. Its crime rates are still high, but the fact that they dropped by 24% and 40.7% (respectively) should be taken as a good sign. i am curious as to why it happened, though - there's no obvious factor to explain it. Definitely something that deserves further investigation.
Chicago still has ways to go. So long as there are neighborhoods where residents have a pretty good chance of getting taught in the crossfire when they step out the door, Chicago will sitll have ways to go. But, in spite of some troubling numbers, the overall picture is hopeful.
Now, as the Russian expression goes, let's hope stay the course.
If you want to see the numbers for yourself, check out the pdf graphic Sun-Times assembled. Or the Sun-times interactive graphic that lets you look at data on community area basis. You can also read the summary of the study itself for more details.