oscars

[stiffvertigo]

Since its that time of year and I don't have anything to do at work, here are my picks and predictions for the Oscars

Comments

Oh come now Matthew

[hardcorerocker]

There's a few easy ones you messed up. March of the Penguins is gonna win, because more people saw it than all the others. That's how the documentary category has worked in the past few years: it's a popularity contest. Also, Crash is gonna win Best Screenplay. Clooney will win his Oscar in the acting category, and Crash will win its award in the Screenplay category. I fucking hated Crash, but it will win something. Also, cinematography is going to Brokeback Mountain, because Ang Lee's films always get awards for cinematography, and The New World, though I love Malick, got lukewarm reception on the whole.

Re: Oh come now Matthew

[stiffvertigo]

in order to vote on the documentary and foreign film categories the members have to prove they've seen all of the films, i really doubt anyone that has seen the other four films, *especially* with the overtly political films that dominated the nominations, that March of the Penguins will win. I won't say that it won't win, but I don't think its likely. Last year, the clear favorite from a popularity point of view, Supersize Me, lost to Born into Brothels which up until the nomination had almost no theatrical showings.

I don't doubt that Crash might win, but it was such a god-awful movie I refused to put it down for anything. Its possible that Crash could even sneak in there and win Best Picture...yikes

I think Memoirs of a Geisha is more likely to win Best Cinematography than Brokeback, especially with the win from the ASC.

Okay

[hardcorerocker]

You've got me on Born into Brothels, but Supersize Me did NOT get nearly the critical praise that March of the Penguins did.

I have to admit that Crash will win something, though I also despised it.

I'll concede the cinematography as well. But again, Memoirs generally got bad reviews, and I don't know the last time a movie that got such mixed reviews won the Oscar for best cinematography (maybe 1994, Legends of the Fall). Many best picture winners have won it in the past 20 years, including without as glamourous cinematography as Brokeback has.

.

[sapphon]

Interesting...

-Connor

[majungo]

While I don't doubt Brokeback's power, I think that Capote hit its peak of popularity at the PERFECT moment. What has gone from a Brokeback sweep immediately preceding the nominations, I think, could end up a split between the two. And that is a good thing, because I loved Capote. And I have my fingers crossed that Matt Dillon will somehow eke out a win through an extremely weak Supporting Actor corps.

[hardcorerocker]

If Matt Dillon wins, every Academy member should blow his brains out. Clooney or Giamatti.