from Steve to shining Steve
This is first meaningful entry I've made in a while, so if you're remotley interested in anything I have to say, or in American Politics, or are looking for some time to kill, I would appreciate it if you read, and give me your thoughts (I'll give them back):
Its ridiculously early-goings now, but I want to make my prediction for the US presidential election. I think that the republicans will nominate either Mit Romney (Mormon fundamentalist from Utah), or Sam Brownback (evangelical extremist from Kansas), and the Dems will nominate Barack Obama (assuming he isn't assassinated, of course)
For the Republicans, why is Rudy Guliani even noteworthy??? Divorced three times, has a long reputation of explosive and violent outrages, and before 9/11, he had a 36% approval rating as Mayor. He flubbed up by suggesting that if the U.S. elects another Democratic president, there will be another 9/11. After the 9/11 attacks, Guliani was lauded as a front-line hero as he walked the streets surveying the damage up front. However, the reason he was walking the streets is that he had refused to organize an emergency-control headquarters office when he became mayor, (a recomondation made after the 1993 WTC attacks, by the way). Incidentally, the office has since been built, underground....but not by Rudy. This man has no credentials. He is the ultimate example of a republican mayor in a republican state, under a republican administration when 9/11 happened, and they have the audacity to say that democrats are weak on terror and defence. While it is true that he cleaned up New York City from many of its strip clubs and the accompanying boobies, Guliani has proven himself a questionable administrator at best, angry-freak-show at worst. He, and his supporters trot out the 9/11 banner with more frequency, and less shame than any other candidate since George Bush.
John McCain will not get the nomination as he has all but alientated his moderate republican base in a vain attempt to appeal to the evangelical christian right. McCain might have been the great savior of the Republican party, bringing it back to more moderate, progressivism unseen since Nixon (yes, I said Nixon. Do some mild research, Nixon, although bat-shit paranoid, was a MODERATE republican). Then he feigned an interest in his imaginary friend, jesus, and spoke at Bob Jones University, and embraces Rev. Jerry Falwell. McCain has sold out to the crazy, and has pissed of his moderate base, a base which will now split between McCain, Guliani, Tommy Thompson, and Mike Huckabee. McCain also has little chance of gaining the extreme right due to his support for embryonic stem-cell research, as well as other positive, progressive instruments of change. Christians don't like things that help people who aren't christians....especially if they're brown.
On that note, in the absense of a legitmate chance of a moderate republican standing a sold chance of wining, I would like to see the Reps nominate Mike Huckabee. He's a moderate, and will be good for the party, the country, and bad for the evangelical right (who have enjoyed disproportionately favourable power since 1994).
Mit Romney and Sam Brownback, these two kooks stand a very clear chance at wining the nomination because the evangelical right knows how to mobilize better than any political force in North America. They are the single largest voting bloc in American history and whoever they want to field as a candidate, that is who they get. Christians get what they want. Always.
As for the Democrats, there are alot of candidates that I actually like. Joe Biden is utterly without diplomatic statesmanship to such a degree that his no-nonsense style (which I was amazed to watch when I saw him grill Don Rumsfeld over Abu Gharaib) might just make a dent in the political armour which protects Washington (especially K-Street). Mike Gravel is even better than Biden at this! Hillary Clinton has also embraced the right, but has done it with much more care and political skill than John McCain. Her focus on children's rights and women's rights is very apealling. She's a woman! Bill Richardson is very progressive by way of gay-rights and stem-cell recearch, and has a tremendous wealth of knowledge of immigration laws/policy/problems. John Edwards' focus on tort reform might help break the poltical trend of the judiciary. Barrack Obama has communication skills to rival Ronal Reagan, and might be able to mobilize and inspire the democratic left-americans who otherwise bicker amongst themselves (ie: environmentalists feuding with labour unions....both noble causes but utterly opposed to each other). It is concievable that Obama might bridge the gap. Also, he's black! Dimminuative Congressman Dennis Kusinich has advocated breaking the private stranglehold on healthcare insurance, allowing gays to marry, pulling the troops out of Iraq, funding embryonic stem-cell research, respecting a woman's right to choose, ending the War on Drugs, and providing immense funding to save the environmment, at the expense of the coroprate polluters that have largely created the environmental problems whilst profiteering from poisoning the planet. So clearly, in America, Dennis is the crazy one.
It's really too bad that no matter what happens, on January 23, 2009 when the new president and his/her vice president get sworn in with their oath to uphold and protect the U.S. Constitution, absolutley nothing will be different.