Лед тронулся. S&P пересмотрели рейтинг США со стабильного на негативный
Мотивы пересмотра:
*Слишком большой дефицит и государственный долг относительно других стран с рейтингом AAA.
*Отсутствие каких либо адекватных мер по сокращению дефицита.
*Сильные противоречия между республиканцами и демократами на счет бюджетной политики. Текущая невозможность достижения соглашения.
*Отсутствие договоренностей на среднесрочную и долгосрочную перспективу.
Сейчас мало кто обращает внимание на рейтинговые агентства, т.к. они себя полностью дискредитировали во время кризиса, когда держали наивысшие рейтинги заведомо дерьмовым активам. Доходило даже до того, что компании становились банкротами, а рейтинг пересматривали в худшую уже после фактической ликвидации компании. Выставление рейтингов ипотечным ценным бумагам (если их вообще можно назвать ценными) шло в непосредственной согласованности с ведущими операторами. Поэтому после кризиса они репутацию и авторитет свой подмочили.
Однако, есть некоторые формальные процедуры в работе пенсионных фондов, взаимных фондов и т.д. Они могут покупать только классы активов с определенным рейтингом. Именно поэтому ипотечному дерьму присваивался наивысший рейтинг (AAA) для того, чтобы получить спрос со стороны пенсионных фондов, которые обладают очень большими средствами. Т.е., если спекулянтам на рейтинг плевать, т.к они понимают, что сам по себе рейтинг ничего не значит, то крупные фонды обязаны соблюдать некоторые правила и процедуры. Это и является причиной столь мощного движения на рынках.
S&P ничего нового не сказал. Это я пишу в своем блоге каждый день, всем все известно. Дело не в том, что он сказал. Дело в том, что «лед сдвинулся», брожения в официальных кругах в сторону критики относительно монетарной и бюджетной политики США могут сдвинуть дело с мертвой точки. Иными словами в долгосрочной перспективе это может заставить крупнейшие мировые фонды пересмотреть свои облигационные портфели. Не зря наш друг Билл Гросс начал продавать трежерис США с ноября и встал по ним в шорт? Об этом и речь!
На рынке могут быть серьезные движения. Смена настроения. Дело даже не в S&P, а в том, что тенденции могут приобретать массовый характер. Рынки же подвержены стадному инстинкту. Как пошла волна продаж, так и не остановить. Хотя я пока не верю, что будут какие либо негативные последствия для доллара и трежерис, но я верю в то, что в долгосрочной перспективе США будет все сложнее удержать свое превосходство, а народ всегда готов добить с особым цинизмом, что уже видим по торговому терминалу.
Например, на РТС по РИ с 17 по 18 прошел максимальный объем за всю историю торгов и самое сильно движение с осени 2008 года!! По всем рынкам мы наблюдали чрезвычайно высокие объемы и очень сильные, резкие движения. Много народу налетело на маржин коллы всего за 1 час. Нечто аналогичное было лишь 6-7 мая 2010. (не считая падения Nikkei после землетрясения в марте 2011) Так что в этом плане сегодняшний день станет историческим! Давай те запомним его, не каждый день такие события происходят!
Оставим на память поколениям график РИ ))) Почти 10 фигур за час во время торгов - эпично, что еще сказать. А так все безобидно начиналось ))
Вот релиз S&P. http://www.standardandpoors.com/prot/ratings/articles/en/eu/?assetID=1245302886884
У многих ссылка может не работать, т.к нужна регистрация, поэтому текст
"
We have affirmed our 'AAA/A-1+' sovereign credit ratings on the United
States of America.
The economy of the U.S. is flexible and highly diversified, the country's
effective monetary policies have supported output growth while containing
inflationary pressures, and a consistent global preference for the U.S.
dollar over all other currencies gives the country unique external
liquidity.
Because the U.S. has, relative to its 'AAA' peers, what we consider to be
very large budget deficits and rising government indebtedness and the
path to addressing these is not clear to us, we have revised our outlook
on the long-term rating to negative from stable.
We believe there is a material risk that U.S. policymakers might not
reach an agreement on how to address medium- and long-term budgetary
challenges by 2013; if an agreement is not reached and meaningful
implementation is not begun by then, this would in our view render the
U.S. fiscal profile meaningfully weaker than that of peer 'AAA'
sovereigns.
NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's) April 18, 2011--Standard & Poor's Ratings
Services said today that it affirmed its 'AAA' long-term and 'A-1+' short-term
sovereign credit ratings on the U.S. Standard & Poor's also said that it
revised its outlook on the long-term rating of the U.S. sovereign to negative
from stable.
Our ratings on the U.S. rest on its high-income, highly diversified, and
flexible economy. It is backed by a strong track record of prudent and
credible monetary policy, evidenced to us by its ability to support growth
while containing inflationary pressures. The ratings also reflect our view of
the unique advantages stemming from the dollar's preeminent place among world
currencies.
"Although we believe these strengths currently outweigh what we consider
to be the U.S.'s meaningful economic and fiscal risks and large external
debtor position, we now believe that they might not fully offset the credit
risks over the next two years at the 'AAA' level," said Standard & Poor's
credit analyst Nikola G. Swann.
"More than two years after the beginning of the recent crisis, U.S.
policymakers have still not agreed on how to reverse recent fiscal
deterioration or address longer-term fiscal pressures," Mr. Swann added.
In 2003-2008, the U.S.'s general (total) government deficit fluctuated
between 2% and 5% of GDP. Already noticeably larger than that of most 'AAA'
rated sovereigns, it ballooned to more than 11% in 2009 and has yet to
recover.
On April 13, President Barack Obama laid out his Administration's
medium-term fiscal consolidation plan, aimed at reducing the cumulative
unified federal deficit by US$4 trillion in 12 years or less. A key component
of the Administration's strategy is to work with Congressional leaders over
the next two months to develop a commonly agreed upon program to reach this
target. The President's proposals envision reducing the deficit via both
spending cuts and revenue increases.
Key members in the U.S. House of Representatives have also advocated
fiscal tightening of a similar magnitude, US$4.4 trillion, during the coming
10 years, but via different methods. House Budget Committee Chairman Paul
Ryan's plan seeks to balance the federal budget by 2040, in part by cutting
non-defense spending. The plan also includes significantly reducing the scope
of Medicare and Medicaid, while bringing top individual and corporate tax
rates lower than those under the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts.
We view President Obama's and Congressman Ryan's proposals as the
starting point of a process aimed at broader engagement, which could result in
substantial and lasting U.S. government fiscal consolidation. That said, we
see the path to agreement as challenging because the gap between the parties
remains wide. We believe there is a significant risk that Congressional
negotiations could result in no agreement on a medium-term fiscal strategy
until after the fall 2012 Congressional and Presidential elections. If so, the
first budget proposal that could include related measures would be Budget 2014
(for the fiscal year beginning Oct. 1, 2013), and we believe a delay beyond
that time is possible.
Standard & Poor's takes no position on the mix of spending and revenue
measures the Congress and the Administration might conclude are appropriate.
But for any plan to be credible, we believe that it would need to secure
support from a cross-section of leaders in both political parties.
If U.S. policymakers do agree on a fiscal consolidation strategy, we
believe the experience of other countries highlights that implementation could
take time. It could also generate significant political controversy, not just
within Congress or between Congress and the Administration, but throughout the
country. We therefore think that, assuming an agreement between Congress and
the President, there is a reasonable chance that it would still take a number
of years before the government reaches a fiscal position that stabilizes its
debt burden. In addition, even if such measures are eventually put in place,
the initiating policymakers or subsequently elected ones could decide to at
least partially reverse fiscal consolidation.
In our baseline macroeconomic scenario of near 3% annual real growth, we
expect the general government deficit to decline gradually but remain slightly
higher than 6% of GDP in 2013. As a result, net general government debt would
reach 84% of GDP by 2013. In our macroeconomic forecast's optimistic scenario
(assuming near 4% annual real growth), the fiscal deficit would fall to 4.6%
of GDP by 2013, but the U.S.'s net general government debt would still rise to
almost 80% of GDP by 2013. In our pessimistic scenario (a mild, one-year
double-dip recession in 2012), the deficit would be 9.1%, while net debt would
surpass 90% by 2013. Even in our optimistic scenario, we believe the U.S.'s
fiscal profile would be less robust than those of other 'AAA' rated sovereigns
by 2013. (For all of the assumptions underpinning our three forecast
scenarios, see "U.S. Risks To The Forecast: Oil We Have to Fear Is?," March
15, 2011, RatingsDirect.
"Our negative outlook on our rating on the U.S. sovereign signals that
we believe there is at least a one-in-three likelihood that we could lower our
long-term rating on the U.S. within two years," Mr. Swann said. "The outlook
reflects our view of the increased risk that the political negotiations over
when and how to address both the medium- and long-term fiscal challenges will
persist until at least after national elections in 2012."
Some compromise that achieves agreement on a comprehensive budgetary
consolidation program--containing deficit-reduction measures in amounts near
those recently proposed, and combined with meaningful steps toward
implementation by 2013--is our baseline assumption and could lead us to revise
the outlook back to stable. Alternatively, the lack of such an agreement or a
significant further fiscal deterioration for any reason could lead us to lower
the rating.
Standard & Poor's will hold a global teleconference call and Web cast
today--April 18, 2011--at 11:30 a.m. New York time (4:30 p.m. London time).
For dial-in and streaming audio details, please go to
www.standardandpoors.com/cmlive.
RELATED CRITERIA AND RESEARCH
Sovereign Credit Ratings: A Primer, May 29, 2008.
This unsolicited rating(s) was initiated by Standard & Poor's. It may be based
solely on publicly available information and may or may not involve the
participation of the issuer. Standard & Poor's has used information from
sources believed to be reliable based on standards established in our Credit
Ratings Information and Data Policy but does not guarantee the accuracy,
adequacy, or completeness of any information used.
Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect on
the Global Credit Portal at www.globalcreditportal.com. All ratings affected
by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at
www.standardandpoors.com. Use the Ratings search box located in the left
column.
*Слишком большой дефицит и государственный долг относительно других стран с рейтингом AAA.
*Отсутствие каких либо адекватных мер по сокращению дефицита.
*Сильные противоречия между республиканцами и демократами на счет бюджетной политики. Текущая невозможность достижения соглашения.
*Отсутствие договоренностей на среднесрочную и долгосрочную перспективу.
Сейчас мало кто обращает внимание на рейтинговые агентства, т.к. они себя полностью дискредитировали во время кризиса, когда держали наивысшие рейтинги заведомо дерьмовым активам. Доходило даже до того, что компании становились банкротами, а рейтинг пересматривали в худшую уже после фактической ликвидации компании. Выставление рейтингов ипотечным ценным бумагам (если их вообще можно назвать ценными) шло в непосредственной согласованности с ведущими операторами. Поэтому после кризиса они репутацию и авторитет свой подмочили.
Однако, есть некоторые формальные процедуры в работе пенсионных фондов, взаимных фондов и т.д. Они могут покупать только классы активов с определенным рейтингом. Именно поэтому ипотечному дерьму присваивался наивысший рейтинг (AAA) для того, чтобы получить спрос со стороны пенсионных фондов, которые обладают очень большими средствами. Т.е., если спекулянтам на рейтинг плевать, т.к они понимают, что сам по себе рейтинг ничего не значит, то крупные фонды обязаны соблюдать некоторые правила и процедуры. Это и является причиной столь мощного движения на рынках.
S&P ничего нового не сказал. Это я пишу в своем блоге каждый день, всем все известно. Дело не в том, что он сказал. Дело в том, что «лед сдвинулся», брожения в официальных кругах в сторону критики относительно монетарной и бюджетной политики США могут сдвинуть дело с мертвой точки. Иными словами в долгосрочной перспективе это может заставить крупнейшие мировые фонды пересмотреть свои облигационные портфели. Не зря наш друг Билл Гросс начал продавать трежерис США с ноября и встал по ним в шорт? Об этом и речь!
На рынке могут быть серьезные движения. Смена настроения. Дело даже не в S&P, а в том, что тенденции могут приобретать массовый характер. Рынки же подвержены стадному инстинкту. Как пошла волна продаж, так и не остановить. Хотя я пока не верю, что будут какие либо негативные последствия для доллара и трежерис, но я верю в то, что в долгосрочной перспективе США будет все сложнее удержать свое превосходство, а народ всегда готов добить с особым цинизмом, что уже видим по торговому терминалу.
Например, на РТС по РИ с 17 по 18 прошел максимальный объем за всю историю торгов и самое сильно движение с осени 2008 года!! По всем рынкам мы наблюдали чрезвычайно высокие объемы и очень сильные, резкие движения. Много народу налетело на маржин коллы всего за 1 час. Нечто аналогичное было лишь 6-7 мая 2010. (не считая падения Nikkei после землетрясения в марте 2011) Так что в этом плане сегодняшний день станет историческим! Давай те запомним его, не каждый день такие события происходят!
Оставим на память поколениям график РИ ))) Почти 10 фигур за час во время торгов - эпично, что еще сказать. А так все безобидно начиналось ))
Вот релиз S&P. http://www.standardandpoors.com/prot/ratings/articles/en/eu/?assetID=1245302886884
У многих ссылка может не работать, т.к нужна регистрация, поэтому текст
"
We have affirmed our 'AAA/A-1+' sovereign credit ratings on the United
States of America.
The economy of the U.S. is flexible and highly diversified, the country's
effective monetary policies have supported output growth while containing
inflationary pressures, and a consistent global preference for the U.S.
dollar over all other currencies gives the country unique external
liquidity.
Because the U.S. has, relative to its 'AAA' peers, what we consider to be
very large budget deficits and rising government indebtedness and the
path to addressing these is not clear to us, we have revised our outlook
on the long-term rating to negative from stable.
We believe there is a material risk that U.S. policymakers might not
reach an agreement on how to address medium- and long-term budgetary
challenges by 2013; if an agreement is not reached and meaningful
implementation is not begun by then, this would in our view render the
U.S. fiscal profile meaningfully weaker than that of peer 'AAA'
sovereigns.
NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's) April 18, 2011--Standard & Poor's Ratings
Services said today that it affirmed its 'AAA' long-term and 'A-1+' short-term
sovereign credit ratings on the U.S. Standard & Poor's also said that it
revised its outlook on the long-term rating of the U.S. sovereign to negative
from stable.
Our ratings on the U.S. rest on its high-income, highly diversified, and
flexible economy. It is backed by a strong track record of prudent and
credible monetary policy, evidenced to us by its ability to support growth
while containing inflationary pressures. The ratings also reflect our view of
the unique advantages stemming from the dollar's preeminent place among world
currencies.
"Although we believe these strengths currently outweigh what we consider
to be the U.S.'s meaningful economic and fiscal risks and large external
debtor position, we now believe that they might not fully offset the credit
risks over the next two years at the 'AAA' level," said Standard & Poor's
credit analyst Nikola G. Swann.
"More than two years after the beginning of the recent crisis, U.S.
policymakers have still not agreed on how to reverse recent fiscal
deterioration or address longer-term fiscal pressures," Mr. Swann added.
In 2003-2008, the U.S.'s general (total) government deficit fluctuated
between 2% and 5% of GDP. Already noticeably larger than that of most 'AAA'
rated sovereigns, it ballooned to more than 11% in 2009 and has yet to
recover.
On April 13, President Barack Obama laid out his Administration's
medium-term fiscal consolidation plan, aimed at reducing the cumulative
unified federal deficit by US$4 trillion in 12 years or less. A key component
of the Administration's strategy is to work with Congressional leaders over
the next two months to develop a commonly agreed upon program to reach this
target. The President's proposals envision reducing the deficit via both
spending cuts and revenue increases.
Key members in the U.S. House of Representatives have also advocated
fiscal tightening of a similar magnitude, US$4.4 trillion, during the coming
10 years, but via different methods. House Budget Committee Chairman Paul
Ryan's plan seeks to balance the federal budget by 2040, in part by cutting
non-defense spending. The plan also includes significantly reducing the scope
of Medicare and Medicaid, while bringing top individual and corporate tax
rates lower than those under the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts.
We view President Obama's and Congressman Ryan's proposals as the
starting point of a process aimed at broader engagement, which could result in
substantial and lasting U.S. government fiscal consolidation. That said, we
see the path to agreement as challenging because the gap between the parties
remains wide. We believe there is a significant risk that Congressional
negotiations could result in no agreement on a medium-term fiscal strategy
until after the fall 2012 Congressional and Presidential elections. If so, the
first budget proposal that could include related measures would be Budget 2014
(for the fiscal year beginning Oct. 1, 2013), and we believe a delay beyond
that time is possible.
Standard & Poor's takes no position on the mix of spending and revenue
measures the Congress and the Administration might conclude are appropriate.
But for any plan to be credible, we believe that it would need to secure
support from a cross-section of leaders in both political parties.
If U.S. policymakers do agree on a fiscal consolidation strategy, we
believe the experience of other countries highlights that implementation could
take time. It could also generate significant political controversy, not just
within Congress or between Congress and the Administration, but throughout the
country. We therefore think that, assuming an agreement between Congress and
the President, there is a reasonable chance that it would still take a number
of years before the government reaches a fiscal position that stabilizes its
debt burden. In addition, even if such measures are eventually put in place,
the initiating policymakers or subsequently elected ones could decide to at
least partially reverse fiscal consolidation.
In our baseline macroeconomic scenario of near 3% annual real growth, we
expect the general government deficit to decline gradually but remain slightly
higher than 6% of GDP in 2013. As a result, net general government debt would
reach 84% of GDP by 2013. In our macroeconomic forecast's optimistic scenario
(assuming near 4% annual real growth), the fiscal deficit would fall to 4.6%
of GDP by 2013, but the U.S.'s net general government debt would still rise to
almost 80% of GDP by 2013. In our pessimistic scenario (a mild, one-year
double-dip recession in 2012), the deficit would be 9.1%, while net debt would
surpass 90% by 2013. Even in our optimistic scenario, we believe the U.S.'s
fiscal profile would be less robust than those of other 'AAA' rated sovereigns
by 2013. (For all of the assumptions underpinning our three forecast
scenarios, see "U.S. Risks To The Forecast: Oil We Have to Fear Is?," March
15, 2011, RatingsDirect.
"Our negative outlook on our rating on the U.S. sovereign signals that
we believe there is at least a one-in-three likelihood that we could lower our
long-term rating on the U.S. within two years," Mr. Swann said. "The outlook
reflects our view of the increased risk that the political negotiations over
when and how to address both the medium- and long-term fiscal challenges will
persist until at least after national elections in 2012."
Some compromise that achieves agreement on a comprehensive budgetary
consolidation program--containing deficit-reduction measures in amounts near
those recently proposed, and combined with meaningful steps toward
implementation by 2013--is our baseline assumption and could lead us to revise
the outlook back to stable. Alternatively, the lack of such an agreement or a
significant further fiscal deterioration for any reason could lead us to lower
the rating.
Standard & Poor's will hold a global teleconference call and Web cast
today--April 18, 2011--at 11:30 a.m. New York time (4:30 p.m. London time).
For dial-in and streaming audio details, please go to
www.standardandpoors.com/cmlive.
RELATED CRITERIA AND RESEARCH
Sovereign Credit Ratings: A Primer, May 29, 2008.
This unsolicited rating(s) was initiated by Standard & Poor's. It may be based
solely on publicly available information and may or may not involve the
participation of the issuer. Standard & Poor's has used information from
sources believed to be reliable based on standards established in our Credit
Ratings Information and Data Policy but does not guarantee the accuracy,
adequacy, or completeness of any information used.
Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect on
the Global Credit Portal at www.globalcreditportal.com. All ratings affected
by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at
www.standardandpoors.com. Use the Ratings search box located in the left
column.