Update on writer's strike -- possible end?
Some of you have seen the news that the writer's strike is ending, according to Michael Eisner reporting on CNBC's "Fast Money" here.
Now, everyone's initial reaction is to cheer. Nobody really wants this strike to go on, because it's depriving us of our favorite show.
LJ comms have been going nuts reporting on this. But then in reading this I was rather suspicious. The media companies have been spreading rumors and just plain lies throughout this strike, in an effort to divide and conquer the unions. So far, Eisner's the only one talking about an end to the strike, yet he's not a rep of either the AMPTP or the WGA. Also, in reading what he actually said, I spot quite a bit of doubletalking, glossing, and opinionating. Yes, he says that the WGA "would be insane to turn it [the deal] down," but nobody knows what's in that deal. He said a deal's in place, but only certified by a handshake, which may be a gentleman's agreement, but doesn't mean squat in big-league legal negotiations. Also, what a former CEO thinks is fair is very different from what a writer thinks is fair. He says it's over. The WGA says it's not over yet.
So my verdict: Suspect.
But I want it to be true, and there is some truth in his statement. So I went searching the sources for what's really going down, namely the WGA website, UnitedHollywood.com, and Nikki Finke's blog. The WGA and AMPTP have been in informal negotiations under a full media blackout, which means that no official word is being sent to the newswires. On the picket lines here in LA, there's been lots of speculation and cautious hopes for nearing the end of this strike, yet they're going strong until someone up top actually says it's over. A mass picket today outside Disney drew around 1500 participants rallying for a fair deal.
And then some light shines through. According to UnitedHollywood and the Wall Street Journal, working off a letter the WGA sent out to its West Coast members, the informal negotiations have paid off. There is an informal agreement between the negotiators, a proposal that will be taken first before the Board for a briefing meeting, then to the guild members at large in a meeting on Saturday for a mass Q&A session in order to be voted on. The East Coast chapter is also holding a meeting, purportedly on Saturday as well. The guild is a democracy; the majority of the voting members, some 10,500 writers, have to approve of the proposal before it can go through the ratification process. They can ask for time to think it over, although given the time issue on this strike, it's likely they will ask for 72 hours at most. Only after that approval is received will the Board call off the strike and everybody goes back to work. This should set terms of contract for the next three years, but its ramifications are likely to stretch longer -- the 1988 deal set the DVD residuals for 20 years. So everyone has to think long and hard about what is involved with the contract before they agree on it.
Right now, lawyers on both sides are working over the specific contract language, which has been a major sticking point in these negotiations and could very well determine how fast this proposal goes to a vote. They're hoping to have the contract language solidified by Friday, so they can send out a contract summary to all their members that day. hecticity and I were chatting earlier about how scientists like to name everything in Latin because it makes them sound geekier -- well, lawyers like to coat everything in as much doubletalk and confusing language as possible, so they can exploit the loopholes (I worked a temp job as a legal secretary, and my mom's a paralegal. Yes, they all need lessons in plain English. Made transcriptions a nightmare).
Okay, so let's be optimists for a second. Say this deal is a great one, everyone loves it, it goes to a vote and gets approved. The earliest it could be rubber-stamped for the ratification process is Monday, and from there by the WGA Constitiution they have a choice of time limits for ratification: 20 days, 10 days, or 48 hours. Likely they'll take the 48 hour option as long as there is overwhelming majority approval. Which means that the earliest this strike will *officially* be over is next Wednesday. Then everyone scurries back to work.
So what's the best case scenario for Supernatural? We have 2 new episodes left, enough to get us through the February sweeps (and did everyone notice that on the 21st it's a double header? Nightshifter first in place of Smallville, then Jus In Belo!!). According to TVGuide.com, and from sources that reported at the beginning of the strike, Supernatural has up to five scripts in rough draft form that could be ready to shoot in a few weeks. The normal shooting schedule goes through mid to late April. Given the need to round everyone back up, polish up the scripts, hire people back to replace lost jobs, and set up production, if the strike is over on Wednesday I think the soonest they'll be back to full production is the 18th. That gives them 10 weeks to the end of April, which is just enough time to squeeze in 5 more episodes if they all work their asses off (and we love our show so much because they do, because they love us! And Kripke is God and he'll make them). Instead of the usual 22 episodes, we'll get 17 at most. Still better than leaving it at 12. However, these new episodes wouldn't air until April/May.
Regardless of the outcome of Saturday's meeting, March will be a desolate month for us. Plenty of time for orgies!! The question is will they make us suffer through April and May without shiny new episodes.
Cross your fingers and pray that the deal is actually a good one.
If anyone is still interested after that long essay, I'll try and report more here as I hear it.
PS: Likelihood of being renewed for 4th season? Very good, but nothing official until May. The strike might have actually helped our show with that. Because we kick ass!
Now, everyone's initial reaction is to cheer. Nobody really wants this strike to go on, because it's depriving us of our favorite show.
LJ comms have been going nuts reporting on this. But then in reading this I was rather suspicious. The media companies have been spreading rumors and just plain lies throughout this strike, in an effort to divide and conquer the unions. So far, Eisner's the only one talking about an end to the strike, yet he's not a rep of either the AMPTP or the WGA. Also, in reading what he actually said, I spot quite a bit of doubletalking, glossing, and opinionating. Yes, he says that the WGA "would be insane to turn it [the deal] down," but nobody knows what's in that deal. He said a deal's in place, but only certified by a handshake, which may be a gentleman's agreement, but doesn't mean squat in big-league legal negotiations. Also, what a former CEO thinks is fair is very different from what a writer thinks is fair. He says it's over. The WGA says it's not over yet.
So my verdict: Suspect.
But I want it to be true, and there is some truth in his statement. So I went searching the sources for what's really going down, namely the WGA website, UnitedHollywood.com, and Nikki Finke's blog. The WGA and AMPTP have been in informal negotiations under a full media blackout, which means that no official word is being sent to the newswires. On the picket lines here in LA, there's been lots of speculation and cautious hopes for nearing the end of this strike, yet they're going strong until someone up top actually says it's over. A mass picket today outside Disney drew around 1500 participants rallying for a fair deal.
And then some light shines through. According to UnitedHollywood and the Wall Street Journal, working off a letter the WGA sent out to its West Coast members, the informal negotiations have paid off. There is an informal agreement between the negotiators, a proposal that will be taken first before the Board for a briefing meeting, then to the guild members at large in a meeting on Saturday for a mass Q&A session in order to be voted on. The East Coast chapter is also holding a meeting, purportedly on Saturday as well. The guild is a democracy; the majority of the voting members, some 10,500 writers, have to approve of the proposal before it can go through the ratification process. They can ask for time to think it over, although given the time issue on this strike, it's likely they will ask for 72 hours at most. Only after that approval is received will the Board call off the strike and everybody goes back to work. This should set terms of contract for the next three years, but its ramifications are likely to stretch longer -- the 1988 deal set the DVD residuals for 20 years. So everyone has to think long and hard about what is involved with the contract before they agree on it.
Right now, lawyers on both sides are working over the specific contract language, which has been a major sticking point in these negotiations and could very well determine how fast this proposal goes to a vote. They're hoping to have the contract language solidified by Friday, so they can send out a contract summary to all their members that day. hecticity and I were chatting earlier about how scientists like to name everything in Latin because it makes them sound geekier -- well, lawyers like to coat everything in as much doubletalk and confusing language as possible, so they can exploit the loopholes (I worked a temp job as a legal secretary, and my mom's a paralegal. Yes, they all need lessons in plain English. Made transcriptions a nightmare).
Okay, so let's be optimists for a second. Say this deal is a great one, everyone loves it, it goes to a vote and gets approved. The earliest it could be rubber-stamped for the ratification process is Monday, and from there by the WGA Constitiution they have a choice of time limits for ratification: 20 days, 10 days, or 48 hours. Likely they'll take the 48 hour option as long as there is overwhelming majority approval. Which means that the earliest this strike will *officially* be over is next Wednesday. Then everyone scurries back to work.
So what's the best case scenario for Supernatural? We have 2 new episodes left, enough to get us through the February sweeps (and did everyone notice that on the 21st it's a double header? Nightshifter first in place of Smallville, then Jus In Belo!!). According to TVGuide.com, and from sources that reported at the beginning of the strike, Supernatural has up to five scripts in rough draft form that could be ready to shoot in a few weeks. The normal shooting schedule goes through mid to late April. Given the need to round everyone back up, polish up the scripts, hire people back to replace lost jobs, and set up production, if the strike is over on Wednesday I think the soonest they'll be back to full production is the 18th. That gives them 10 weeks to the end of April, which is just enough time to squeeze in 5 more episodes if they all work their asses off (and we love our show so much because they do, because they love us! And Kripke is God and he'll make them). Instead of the usual 22 episodes, we'll get 17 at most. Still better than leaving it at 12. However, these new episodes wouldn't air until April/May.
Regardless of the outcome of Saturday's meeting, March will be a desolate month for us. Plenty of time for orgies!! The question is will they make us suffer through April and May without shiny new episodes.
Cross your fingers and pray that the deal is actually a good one.
If anyone is still interested after that long essay, I'll try and report more here as I hear it.
PS: Likelihood of being renewed for 4th season? Very good, but nothing official until May. The strike might have actually helped our show with that. Because we kick ass!