Football related musings
So, recently on Football Outsiders, there was a discussion about whether or not Randy Moss was deserving of the Hall of Fame. My gut reactions was "No", though opinion on the boards seemed to be fairly divided. However, my next thought was, if Randy Moss isn't good enough, who is? Imagine my surprise when I realised that, past a couple of very obvious choices, I didn't really know where my cut-off point lies.
This, then, is a bit of discussion and analysis about what a receiver is going to have to do to get into the Hall of Fame.
Let's start with the current occupants (in date order)
Elroy (Crazylegs) Hirsch (also HB) 1946-1956
Dante Lavelli 1946-1956
Pete Pihos 1947-1955
Tom Fears 1948-1956
Raymond Berry 1955-1967
Tommy McDonald 1957-1968
Bobby Mitchell (also HB) 1958-1968
Don Maynard 1958, 1960-1973
Lance Alworth 1962-1972
Charley Taylor (also HB) 1964-1975, 1977
Paul Warfield 1964-1977
Fred Biletnikoff 1965-1978
Charlie Joiner 1969-1986
John Stallworth 1974-1987
Lynn Swann 1974-1982
Steve Largent 1976-1989
James Lofton 1978-1993
Now, apart from Crazylegs, I don't know any of the names before Don Maynard. Alworth is probably the first of the real "passing-era" receivers, and Largent and Lofton are the only ones that played the majority of their careers under the more passer-friendly league rules (particularly the 10 yard chuck being moved back to five yards). Lynn Swann is probably the only one I'd argue against being in the hall, as he's basically getting in based on his performances in the SuperBowl (which were very good).
Okay, so now we know roughly where we are in terms of what it currently takes to get into the Hall. We also know that Art Monk has been making it to the final round, but not getting the requisite votes to get in, and that Michael Irvin failed on his first (and so far only) attempt.
Next, how do we analyse who gets in? This is going to be a purely fact-based assessment, but I'll talk about some other things at the end. First of all, I wanted to narrow down how many people we were going to look at. To this end, I checked all the pro bowl rosters since 1980, and listed all the receivers that attended 3 or more pro bowls (not counting those who went as special teamers (Dante Hall, Michael Bates and Steve Tasker)). If you weren't rated good enough amongst your peers to make 3 pro bowls over your career, you're not good enough for the Hall, and I started at 1980, deciding that anyone before that has probably already been debated by wiser heads than mine (interestingly, Stallworth made 3 pro bowls, 2 of which were post-1980, so I think I got the right time frame).
The list of receivers that made 3 pro bowls since 1980.
Tim Brown (9)
Isaac Bruce (4)*
Cris Carter (8)
Wes Chandler (3)
Gary Clark (4)
Mark Clayton (5)
Cris Collinsworth (3)
Mark Duper (3)
Henry Ellard (3)
Irving Fryar (5)
Marvin Harrison (7)*
Torry Holt (4)*
Joe Horn (4)*
Michael Irvin (5)
Haywood Jeffires (3)
Chad Johnson (3)*
Keyshawn Johnson (3)*
Steve Largent (5)
James Lofton (7)
Anthony Miller (5)
Art Monk (3)
Herman Moore (4)
Stanley Morgan (3)
Randy Moss (5)*
Eric Moulds (3)*
Terrell Owens (5)*
Mike Quick (5)
Andre Reed (7)
Jerry Rice (13)
Andre Rison (5)
Sterling Sharpe (5)
Jimmy Smith (5)
Rod Smith (3)*
Al Toon (3)
Hines Ward (4)*
* denotes still active
35 guys in all, 11 of which are still active.
So, having winnowed out the no-hopers, the next thing was to get their career stats. I decided to stick with regular season stats only. Postseason stats are nice, but people really remember performances, more than stats, in the postseason, so we'll stick with just regular season stats.
Name Pro bowls Games Rec Yards TD Y/R
Tim Brown 9 255 1094 14934 100 13.65082267
Isaac Bruce* 4 172 835 12621 78 15.11497006
Cris Carter 8 234 1101 13899 130 12.6239782
Wes Chandler 3 150 559 8966 56 16.03935599
Dwight Clark 2 134 506 6750 48 13.33992095
Gary Clark 4 167 699 10856 65 15.53075823
Mark Clayton 5 158 582 8974 84 15.41924399
Cris Collinsworth 3 107 417 6698 36 16.06235012
Mark Duper 3 146 511 8869 59 17.35616438
Henry Ellard 3 228 814 13777 65 16.92506143
Irving Fryar 5 255 851 12785 84 15.02350176
Marvin Harrison* 7 159 959 12773 111 13.31908238
Torry Holt* 4 115 648 9859 58 15.21450617
Joe Horn* 4 147 558 8093 53 14.50358423
Michael Irvin 5 159 750 11904 65 15.872
Haywood Jeffires 3 132 535 6334 50 11.83925234
Chad Johnson* 3 80 397 5757 35 14.50125945
Keyshawn Johnson* 3 156 771 10129 62 13.13748379
Steve Largent 5 200 819 13089 100 15.98168498
James Lofton 7 233 764 14004 75 18.32984293
Anthony Miller 5 155 595 9148 63 15.37478992
Art Monk 3 224 940 12721 68 13.53297872
Herman Moore 4 149 670 9174 62 13.69253731
Stanley Morgan 3 196 557 10716 72 19.23877917
Randy Moss* 5 129 646 10283 100 15.91795666
Eric Moulds* 3 158 693 9321 49 13.45021645
Terrell Owens* 5 146 733 10767 102 14.68894952
Mike Quick 5 101 363 6464 61 17.80716253
Andre Reed 7 227 951 13198 87 13.87802313
Jerry Rice 13 303 1549 22895 197 14.78050355
Andre Rison 5 184 743 10305 84 13.86944818
Sterling Sharpe 5 112 595 8134 65 13.67058824
Jimmy Smith 5 179 862 12287 67 14.25406032
Rod Smith* 3 170 808 10971 65 13.5779703
John Stallworth 3 165 537 8723 63 16.24394786
Lynn Swann 3 115 336 5462 51 16.25595238
John Taylor 2 121 347 5598 43 16.13256484
Al Toon 3 107 517 6605 31 12.77562863
Hines Ward* 4 131 587 7178 53 12.22827939
That's a lot of numbers, right there. A couple of additionals - I've thrown Lynn Swann and John Stallworth's numbers in there, for comparison purposes. I've also broken my own rule on 3 pro bowls, and added Dwight Clark and John Taylor, because I'm a big ol' niners homer, and cos I'm curious about how far short they're gonna fall.
Well, the numbers are impressive, but how do we get from there to HoF-worthy or not? My personal feeling is that all of these numbers matter for a receiver (except games played). Number of Pro Bowls gives a good idea of how the receiver was regarded in their day, and gives a boost to players from earlier, less pass-happy, days. Receptions, yards and touchdowns are the things that players need to do to help their team. Obviously, some players are more possession type guys, where others are big-play machines, but both are valuable. Keeping the chains moving can mean just as much to a team as a shock 60 yard TD catch in a losing effort.
So, all we have to do is decide the proportions for each stat. I decided to try and balance them all as best possible. So, number of pro bowls got multiplied by 100, receptions were left alone, yards were divided by ten, and TDs multiplied by 10. All these were added together, and divided by 100, to get the results shown below (in order of HoF-Rating)
Name Pro bowls Games Rec Yards TD Yards Per Reception HoF Rating
Jerry Rice 13 303 1549 22895 197 14.78050355 71.085
Cris Carter 8 234 1101 13899 130 12.6239782 45.909
Tim Brown 9 255 1094 14934 100 13.65082267 44.874
Marvin Harrison* 7 159 959 12773 111 13.31908238 40.463
Andre Reed 7 227 951 13198 87 13.87802313 38.408
Steve Largent 5 200 819 13089 100 15.98168498 36.279
James Lofton 7 233 764 14004 75 18.32984293 36.144
Irving Fryar 5 255 851 12785 84 15.02350176 34.695
Terrell Owens* 5 146 733 10767 102 14.68894952 33.297
Isaac Bruce* 4 172 835 12621 78 15.11497006 32.771
Jimmy Smith 5 179 862 12287 67 14.25406032 32.607
Art Monk 3 224 940 12721 68 13.53297872 31.921
Randy Moss* 5 129 646 10283 100 15.91795666 31.743
Henry Ellard 3 228 814 13777 65 16.92506143 31.417
Andre Rison 5 184 743 10305 84 13.86944818 31.135
Michael Irvin 5 159 750 11904 65 15.872 30.904
Rod Smith* 3 170 808 10971 65 13.5779703 28.551
Gary Clark 4 167 699 10856 65 15.53075823 28.346
Mark Clayton 5 158 582 8974 84 15.41924399 28.194
Keyshawn Johnson* 3 156 771 10129 62 13.13748379 27.039
Stanley Morgan 3 196 557 10716 72 19.23877917 26.486
Anthony Miller 5 155 595 9148 63 15.37478992 26.398
Torry Holt* 4 115 648 9859 58 15.21450617 26.139
Herman Moore 4 149 670 9174 62 13.69253731 26.074
Sterling Sharpe 5 112 595 8134 65 13.67058824 25.584
Eric Moulds* 3 158 693 9321 49 13.45021645 24.151
John Stallworth 3 165 537 8723 63 16.24394786 23.393
Wes Chandler 3 150 559 8966 56 16.03935599 23.156
Joe Horn* 4 147 558 8093 53 14.50358423 22.973
Mark Duper 3 146 511 8869 59 17.35616438 22.879
Hines Ward* 4 131 587 7178 53 12.22827939 22.348
Mike Quick 5 101 363 6464 61 17.80716253 21.194
Haywood Jeffires 3 132 535 6334 50 11.83925234 19.684
Dwight Clark 2 134 506 6750 48 13.33992095 18.61
Al Toon 3 107 517 6605 31 12.77562863 17.875
Cris Collinsworth 3 107 417 6698 36 16.06235012 17.468
Lynn Swann 3 115 336 5462 51 16.25595238 16.922
Chad Johnson* 3 80 397 5757 35 14.50125945 16.227
John Taylor 2 121 347 5598 43 16.13256484 15.368
Okay, so, anyone surprised by the name at the top? Didn't think so.
Looking down the list, Steve Largent and James Lofton, the two most recent HoF inductees are 6th and 7th respectively. This tells us that anyone falling below that line is at best a borderline case. If Irvin (at 16) or even Monk (at 12) get in, we have to re-evaluate, and start working out how to account for state of the game, but for the moment, I think we're safe to say that you're going to need a HoF rating of 36 to get in.
So, first of all, is there anyone above the line that definitely doesn't belong, or anyone below the line that definitely does? Above the line we have Jerry Rice, Cris Carter, Tim Brown, Marvin Harrison and Andre Reed. The top three are all no-doubt first-ballot HoFfers. Reed is definitely a dodgy case. He wasn't necessarily the best receiver on his team (playing with Lofton for most of his career), and possibly his stats benefitted from the K-Gun offense. However, I think that most would agree he's up for at least serious consideration.
Harrison is more problematic. In many ways, he is the contemporary against which Moss is most likely to be argued. They are very different players, and Harrison has benefitted from Peyton far more than Moss has benefitted from his various (and multifarious) quarterbacks. However, as with Reed, Harrison is certainly a very strong HoF contender.
So, our basic methodology appears correct. Out of interest, Swann is a lowly 37th, only beating out Chad Johnson, who is only five years into his career, and John Taylor, who had to make a living off Jerry Rice's hand-me-downs. But, we did say at the beginning that Swann gets a huge bump for his postseason heroics, and stats are never the whole story for getting into the Hall. Stallworth ranks a more promising 27th, and certainly anyone below him is not getting any serious consideration for HoF status.
Given this method of rating the receivers, what can we expect in the near future? Well, the top three of Rice, Brown & Carter, as already noted, are all certainly going into the Hall, probably all as first-ballots. Reed may get in, helped by being a couple of years before the big three. Art Monk's snubbing so far looks reasonably justified. He actually made fewer pro bowls than his teammate, Gary Clark, though he was good (if not great) for a while longer than Clark.
Irving Fryar is just bubbling under, but may be hurt by his constant team-hopping, and lack of outstanding postseason success. Just bubbling over Irvin are a couple of names I wasn't expecting to see, in Henry Ellard and Andre Rison. Though I really don't think Rison is HoF material, I always like Ellard, and would probably seriously consider him as a selection.
The interesting thing after that is the number of currently playing, and just retired (Jimmy Smith) guys in that "bubbling under" section. Since the stats are based on career totals, those currently playing are liable to bubble up a little further, but what does it mean? Are there a number of really good receivers in the NFL at the moment, or do the current rules, and style, inflate currently playing receivers stats? At the moment, it's difficult to tell.
There really weren't many good receivers playing in the early to mid-80s, just Lofton and Largent, then a really, really big crowd of okay guys. This was followed by the holy trinity of Rice, Carter and Brown, not to mention Sterling Sharpe (cut short by injury) and Anthony Carter (ditto), so there is definitely precedent for great receivers coming along in bunches, and maybe Harrison, Owens, Moss is another such bunch. However, with the many changes in the rules in the last five years, I think it's likely that we are going to have to start adjusting post-2000 receiving numbers downwards, to get a true comparison with the pre-2000 numbers.
As an aside, pro-rating the HoF stat by games played gives some interesting things to watch. First off, Sterling Sharpe was definitely on course for the Hall, and probably to challenge a lot of Jerry's marks. It is probably forgotten a little how good he really was, and could have been. Mike Quick is also very high, but I know almost nothing about him. Of the current players, Harrison and Moss lead the way, with Terrell Owens in third, closely followed by Torry Holt. Chad Johnson is a little way back from that, and has the most left to do.
So, back to the original question: does Randy Moss have what it takes? He's currently bubbling under in 13th spot, though he does have time to add to his numbers. Using a HoF Rating of 36 as the magic number, he would need two more years of 2005 style numbers (60 catches, 1000 yards, 8 TDs). However, with the possibly stat inflation for having played post 2000, he would be best served with a third year at that level. That would leave him on 39 HoF points, just below the holy trinity, and looking to book his place in Canton.
I'd bet on Terrell getting his stats for a place in the Hall, but his off-the-field activities are going to weigh heavily against him come voting time. Michael Irvin is probably the one to watch here. If he gets in, it would be a monumental injustice for TO not to follow. Of the other current players, Torry Holt would be my strongest bet to make it into the Hall. Though aided by playing in the Martz offense, he was one of the players that made it work. Chad Johnson is off to a very good start, but has a long, long way to go. I don't think anyone else currently playing really stands a chance, though Isaac Bruce and Jimmy Smith will both bear consideration when they are eligible.
This, then, is a bit of discussion and analysis about what a receiver is going to have to do to get into the Hall of Fame.
Let's start with the current occupants (in date order)
Elroy (Crazylegs) Hirsch (also HB) 1946-1956
Dante Lavelli 1946-1956
Pete Pihos 1947-1955
Tom Fears 1948-1956
Raymond Berry 1955-1967
Tommy McDonald 1957-1968
Bobby Mitchell (also HB) 1958-1968
Don Maynard 1958, 1960-1973
Lance Alworth 1962-1972
Charley Taylor (also HB) 1964-1975, 1977
Paul Warfield 1964-1977
Fred Biletnikoff 1965-1978
Charlie Joiner 1969-1986
John Stallworth 1974-1987
Lynn Swann 1974-1982
Steve Largent 1976-1989
James Lofton 1978-1993
Now, apart from Crazylegs, I don't know any of the names before Don Maynard. Alworth is probably the first of the real "passing-era" receivers, and Largent and Lofton are the only ones that played the majority of their careers under the more passer-friendly league rules (particularly the 10 yard chuck being moved back to five yards). Lynn Swann is probably the only one I'd argue against being in the hall, as he's basically getting in based on his performances in the SuperBowl (which were very good).
Okay, so now we know roughly where we are in terms of what it currently takes to get into the Hall. We also know that Art Monk has been making it to the final round, but not getting the requisite votes to get in, and that Michael Irvin failed on his first (and so far only) attempt.
Next, how do we analyse who gets in? This is going to be a purely fact-based assessment, but I'll talk about some other things at the end. First of all, I wanted to narrow down how many people we were going to look at. To this end, I checked all the pro bowl rosters since 1980, and listed all the receivers that attended 3 or more pro bowls (not counting those who went as special teamers (Dante Hall, Michael Bates and Steve Tasker)). If you weren't rated good enough amongst your peers to make 3 pro bowls over your career, you're not good enough for the Hall, and I started at 1980, deciding that anyone before that has probably already been debated by wiser heads than mine (interestingly, Stallworth made 3 pro bowls, 2 of which were post-1980, so I think I got the right time frame).
The list of receivers that made 3 pro bowls since 1980.
Tim Brown (9)
Isaac Bruce (4)*
Cris Carter (8)
Wes Chandler (3)
Gary Clark (4)
Mark Clayton (5)
Cris Collinsworth (3)
Mark Duper (3)
Henry Ellard (3)
Irving Fryar (5)
Marvin Harrison (7)*
Torry Holt (4)*
Joe Horn (4)*
Michael Irvin (5)
Haywood Jeffires (3)
Chad Johnson (3)*
Keyshawn Johnson (3)*
Steve Largent (5)
James Lofton (7)
Anthony Miller (5)
Art Monk (3)
Herman Moore (4)
Stanley Morgan (3)
Randy Moss (5)*
Eric Moulds (3)*
Terrell Owens (5)*
Mike Quick (5)
Andre Reed (7)
Jerry Rice (13)
Andre Rison (5)
Sterling Sharpe (5)
Jimmy Smith (5)
Rod Smith (3)*
Al Toon (3)
Hines Ward (4)*
* denotes still active
35 guys in all, 11 of which are still active.
So, having winnowed out the no-hopers, the next thing was to get their career stats. I decided to stick with regular season stats only. Postseason stats are nice, but people really remember performances, more than stats, in the postseason, so we'll stick with just regular season stats.
Name Pro bowls Games Rec Yards TD Y/R
Tim Brown 9 255 1094 14934 100 13.65082267
Isaac Bruce* 4 172 835 12621 78 15.11497006
Cris Carter 8 234 1101 13899 130 12.6239782
Wes Chandler 3 150 559 8966 56 16.03935599
Dwight Clark 2 134 506 6750 48 13.33992095
Gary Clark 4 167 699 10856 65 15.53075823
Mark Clayton 5 158 582 8974 84 15.41924399
Cris Collinsworth 3 107 417 6698 36 16.06235012
Mark Duper 3 146 511 8869 59 17.35616438
Henry Ellard 3 228 814 13777 65 16.92506143
Irving Fryar 5 255 851 12785 84 15.02350176
Marvin Harrison* 7 159 959 12773 111 13.31908238
Torry Holt* 4 115 648 9859 58 15.21450617
Joe Horn* 4 147 558 8093 53 14.50358423
Michael Irvin 5 159 750 11904 65 15.872
Haywood Jeffires 3 132 535 6334 50 11.83925234
Chad Johnson* 3 80 397 5757 35 14.50125945
Keyshawn Johnson* 3 156 771 10129 62 13.13748379
Steve Largent 5 200 819 13089 100 15.98168498
James Lofton 7 233 764 14004 75 18.32984293
Anthony Miller 5 155 595 9148 63 15.37478992
Art Monk 3 224 940 12721 68 13.53297872
Herman Moore 4 149 670 9174 62 13.69253731
Stanley Morgan 3 196 557 10716 72 19.23877917
Randy Moss* 5 129 646 10283 100 15.91795666
Eric Moulds* 3 158 693 9321 49 13.45021645
Terrell Owens* 5 146 733 10767 102 14.68894952
Mike Quick 5 101 363 6464 61 17.80716253
Andre Reed 7 227 951 13198 87 13.87802313
Jerry Rice 13 303 1549 22895 197 14.78050355
Andre Rison 5 184 743 10305 84 13.86944818
Sterling Sharpe 5 112 595 8134 65 13.67058824
Jimmy Smith 5 179 862 12287 67 14.25406032
Rod Smith* 3 170 808 10971 65 13.5779703
John Stallworth 3 165 537 8723 63 16.24394786
Lynn Swann 3 115 336 5462 51 16.25595238
John Taylor 2 121 347 5598 43 16.13256484
Al Toon 3 107 517 6605 31 12.77562863
Hines Ward* 4 131 587 7178 53 12.22827939
That's a lot of numbers, right there. A couple of additionals - I've thrown Lynn Swann and John Stallworth's numbers in there, for comparison purposes. I've also broken my own rule on 3 pro bowls, and added Dwight Clark and John Taylor, because I'm a big ol' niners homer, and cos I'm curious about how far short they're gonna fall.
Well, the numbers are impressive, but how do we get from there to HoF-worthy or not? My personal feeling is that all of these numbers matter for a receiver (except games played). Number of Pro Bowls gives a good idea of how the receiver was regarded in their day, and gives a boost to players from earlier, less pass-happy, days. Receptions, yards and touchdowns are the things that players need to do to help their team. Obviously, some players are more possession type guys, where others are big-play machines, but both are valuable. Keeping the chains moving can mean just as much to a team as a shock 60 yard TD catch in a losing effort.
So, all we have to do is decide the proportions for each stat. I decided to try and balance them all as best possible. So, number of pro bowls got multiplied by 100, receptions were left alone, yards were divided by ten, and TDs multiplied by 10. All these were added together, and divided by 100, to get the results shown below (in order of HoF-Rating)
Name Pro bowls Games Rec Yards TD Yards Per Reception HoF Rating
Jerry Rice 13 303 1549 22895 197 14.78050355 71.085
Cris Carter 8 234 1101 13899 130 12.6239782 45.909
Tim Brown 9 255 1094 14934 100 13.65082267 44.874
Marvin Harrison* 7 159 959 12773 111 13.31908238 40.463
Andre Reed 7 227 951 13198 87 13.87802313 38.408
Steve Largent 5 200 819 13089 100 15.98168498 36.279
James Lofton 7 233 764 14004 75 18.32984293 36.144
Irving Fryar 5 255 851 12785 84 15.02350176 34.695
Terrell Owens* 5 146 733 10767 102 14.68894952 33.297
Isaac Bruce* 4 172 835 12621 78 15.11497006 32.771
Jimmy Smith 5 179 862 12287 67 14.25406032 32.607
Art Monk 3 224 940 12721 68 13.53297872 31.921
Randy Moss* 5 129 646 10283 100 15.91795666 31.743
Henry Ellard 3 228 814 13777 65 16.92506143 31.417
Andre Rison 5 184 743 10305 84 13.86944818 31.135
Michael Irvin 5 159 750 11904 65 15.872 30.904
Rod Smith* 3 170 808 10971 65 13.5779703 28.551
Gary Clark 4 167 699 10856 65 15.53075823 28.346
Mark Clayton 5 158 582 8974 84 15.41924399 28.194
Keyshawn Johnson* 3 156 771 10129 62 13.13748379 27.039
Stanley Morgan 3 196 557 10716 72 19.23877917 26.486
Anthony Miller 5 155 595 9148 63 15.37478992 26.398
Torry Holt* 4 115 648 9859 58 15.21450617 26.139
Herman Moore 4 149 670 9174 62 13.69253731 26.074
Sterling Sharpe 5 112 595 8134 65 13.67058824 25.584
Eric Moulds* 3 158 693 9321 49 13.45021645 24.151
John Stallworth 3 165 537 8723 63 16.24394786 23.393
Wes Chandler 3 150 559 8966 56 16.03935599 23.156
Joe Horn* 4 147 558 8093 53 14.50358423 22.973
Mark Duper 3 146 511 8869 59 17.35616438 22.879
Hines Ward* 4 131 587 7178 53 12.22827939 22.348
Mike Quick 5 101 363 6464 61 17.80716253 21.194
Haywood Jeffires 3 132 535 6334 50 11.83925234 19.684
Dwight Clark 2 134 506 6750 48 13.33992095 18.61
Al Toon 3 107 517 6605 31 12.77562863 17.875
Cris Collinsworth 3 107 417 6698 36 16.06235012 17.468
Lynn Swann 3 115 336 5462 51 16.25595238 16.922
Chad Johnson* 3 80 397 5757 35 14.50125945 16.227
John Taylor 2 121 347 5598 43 16.13256484 15.368
Okay, so, anyone surprised by the name at the top? Didn't think so.
Looking down the list, Steve Largent and James Lofton, the two most recent HoF inductees are 6th and 7th respectively. This tells us that anyone falling below that line is at best a borderline case. If Irvin (at 16) or even Monk (at 12) get in, we have to re-evaluate, and start working out how to account for state of the game, but for the moment, I think we're safe to say that you're going to need a HoF rating of 36 to get in.
So, first of all, is there anyone above the line that definitely doesn't belong, or anyone below the line that definitely does? Above the line we have Jerry Rice, Cris Carter, Tim Brown, Marvin Harrison and Andre Reed. The top three are all no-doubt first-ballot HoFfers. Reed is definitely a dodgy case. He wasn't necessarily the best receiver on his team (playing with Lofton for most of his career), and possibly his stats benefitted from the K-Gun offense. However, I think that most would agree he's up for at least serious consideration.
Harrison is more problematic. In many ways, he is the contemporary against which Moss is most likely to be argued. They are very different players, and Harrison has benefitted from Peyton far more than Moss has benefitted from his various (and multifarious) quarterbacks. However, as with Reed, Harrison is certainly a very strong HoF contender.
So, our basic methodology appears correct. Out of interest, Swann is a lowly 37th, only beating out Chad Johnson, who is only five years into his career, and John Taylor, who had to make a living off Jerry Rice's hand-me-downs. But, we did say at the beginning that Swann gets a huge bump for his postseason heroics, and stats are never the whole story for getting into the Hall. Stallworth ranks a more promising 27th, and certainly anyone below him is not getting any serious consideration for HoF status.
Given this method of rating the receivers, what can we expect in the near future? Well, the top three of Rice, Brown & Carter, as already noted, are all certainly going into the Hall, probably all as first-ballots. Reed may get in, helped by being a couple of years before the big three. Art Monk's snubbing so far looks reasonably justified. He actually made fewer pro bowls than his teammate, Gary Clark, though he was good (if not great) for a while longer than Clark.
Irving Fryar is just bubbling under, but may be hurt by his constant team-hopping, and lack of outstanding postseason success. Just bubbling over Irvin are a couple of names I wasn't expecting to see, in Henry Ellard and Andre Rison. Though I really don't think Rison is HoF material, I always like Ellard, and would probably seriously consider him as a selection.
The interesting thing after that is the number of currently playing, and just retired (Jimmy Smith) guys in that "bubbling under" section. Since the stats are based on career totals, those currently playing are liable to bubble up a little further, but what does it mean? Are there a number of really good receivers in the NFL at the moment, or do the current rules, and style, inflate currently playing receivers stats? At the moment, it's difficult to tell.
There really weren't many good receivers playing in the early to mid-80s, just Lofton and Largent, then a really, really big crowd of okay guys. This was followed by the holy trinity of Rice, Carter and Brown, not to mention Sterling Sharpe (cut short by injury) and Anthony Carter (ditto), so there is definitely precedent for great receivers coming along in bunches, and maybe Harrison, Owens, Moss is another such bunch. However, with the many changes in the rules in the last five years, I think it's likely that we are going to have to start adjusting post-2000 receiving numbers downwards, to get a true comparison with the pre-2000 numbers.
As an aside, pro-rating the HoF stat by games played gives some interesting things to watch. First off, Sterling Sharpe was definitely on course for the Hall, and probably to challenge a lot of Jerry's marks. It is probably forgotten a little how good he really was, and could have been. Mike Quick is also very high, but I know almost nothing about him. Of the current players, Harrison and Moss lead the way, with Terrell Owens in third, closely followed by Torry Holt. Chad Johnson is a little way back from that, and has the most left to do.
So, back to the original question: does Randy Moss have what it takes? He's currently bubbling under in 13th spot, though he does have time to add to his numbers. Using a HoF Rating of 36 as the magic number, he would need two more years of 2005 style numbers (60 catches, 1000 yards, 8 TDs). However, with the possibly stat inflation for having played post 2000, he would be best served with a third year at that level. That would leave him on 39 HoF points, just below the holy trinity, and looking to book his place in Canton.
I'd bet on Terrell getting his stats for a place in the Hall, but his off-the-field activities are going to weigh heavily against him come voting time. Michael Irvin is probably the one to watch here. If he gets in, it would be a monumental injustice for TO not to follow. Of the other current players, Torry Holt would be my strongest bet to make it into the Hall. Though aided by playing in the Martz offense, he was one of the players that made it work. Chad Johnson is off to a very good start, but has a long, long way to go. I don't think anyone else currently playing really stands a chance, though Isaac Bruce and Jimmy Smith will both bear consideration when they are eligible.