A little statistical analysis...
In watching coverage of the Republican Primary Season it struck me, as is usually does, what a weird and distorted picture the media, all media really, present. The main focus of this distortion is not a slanting of the facts, not outright lies, but selectivity on focus. Essentially, they treat it as a state by state horse race. The result of this focus is the common understandings that the race was somewhat close, that Romney was in a desperate fight to win and that the Republican voters did not embrace him, that they were clearly looking for some non-Romney candidate. Let's start by looking at the state by state horse race:
Looks like a tight race, doesn't it? Especially in the middle section, it looks like anybody could have come out on top... a furious battle for the front position! But was it?
Who wins the most states is really a moot point, what makes the nominee is who wins the most delegates... let's have a look at that chart:
Based on delegate count, Mitt Romney's "inevitability" was pretty hard to argue with, even though Gingrich still argued with only a couple of weeks ago. It also goes a long way to explaining why the media barely acknowledge Ron Paul.
Lastly, let's look at that "looking for anyone who isn't Mitt Romney" myth by looking at the only data that matters on this issue, which is the popular vote, the actual number of votes cast per candidate:
It looks to me like the Republican voters decided they liked Mitt early on and never looked back. Romney has nearly 2 million more votes than his nearest competitor, Rick Santorum, and a significant number of Santorum's total are sympathy votes after he'd already dropped out of the race.
So... why does the media focus on the state by state horse race? Because the other metrics show that the race was over a long Time ago, and let's face it, the networks have to sell some toilet paper.
Looks like a tight race, doesn't it? Especially in the middle section, it looks like anybody could have come out on top... a furious battle for the front position! But was it?
Who wins the most states is really a moot point, what makes the nominee is who wins the most delegates... let's have a look at that chart:
Based on delegate count, Mitt Romney's "inevitability" was pretty hard to argue with, even though Gingrich still argued with only a couple of weeks ago. It also goes a long way to explaining why the media barely acknowledge Ron Paul.
Lastly, let's look at that "looking for anyone who isn't Mitt Romney" myth by looking at the only data that matters on this issue, which is the popular vote, the actual number of votes cast per candidate:
It looks to me like the Republican voters decided they liked Mitt early on and never looked back. Romney has nearly 2 million more votes than his nearest competitor, Rick Santorum, and a significant number of Santorum's total are sympathy votes after he'd already dropped out of the race.
So... why does the media focus on the state by state horse race? Because the other metrics show that the race was over a long Time ago, and let's face it, the networks have to sell some toilet paper.