(Untitled)

[sonicduck85]

My last final exam is tomorrow at 3 PM and deals mostly with James Joyce. I'm coming home on Saturday for the summer. I've been packing and cleaning a lot this week while still finding time to study and sleep in. It's not as easy as it sounds, trust me

Comments

[aspdirector]

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
2. Superman Returns
3. The Da Vinci Code
4. X-Men: The Last Stand
5. Mission: Impossible III

Pirates not only has the biggest fanbase (other then Superman) but also appeals to most families. From working in a theater for the last three years (on and off) I know already that it will gross tons on that alone. In addition, it is a comedy/adventure and therefore applies to almost every type of viewer.

Da Vinci Code I think will be the best of the films. Not only is it a Ron Howard film, but it also has an all star cast. I know that doesn't promise a great film, but because of it's loyal fanbase (and the fact that the book came close to outselling The Bible) it will gross a surprisingly large amount of money.

I personally would rather Superman earn the most money as it will probably be better then Pirates. Although it probably will get bad publicity through word of mouth. Not because it was bad, but rather that the average movie-goer is such a dumb ass that they wouldn't know enough about the film to know it's basically part 3.

X-man: This will probably be good. It has a loyal and strong fanbase as well as it is part of a trilogy, so the people who go to it will probably go not just because they want to, but for a desire to know the whole story (if they don't know it). This will be good and action packed, nothing to complain about with that.

I put Mission Impossible III last because I think that while it's one of the year's biggest films, there is a decent probability that it will suck. It's been so long since the second that much of the audience has lost interest and odds are it will mainly sell tickets as the big 'action' movie of the year. Mainly that means that there will be a lot of movie-goers just there to see explosions rather plot. While that brings in numbers, when word gets around that the plot sucks, it will quickly loose audiences. I doubt it'll sell out showings past the third weekend at the fairly big theater i work in, but to be honest, it might be good, that's kind of up in the air still.

[sonicduck85]

There were four years in between the first and second M:I, and the second one was kind of stupid, but it kicked ass at the box office. Quality never, ever directly corelates with big box office. Lack of any real plot certainly didn't stop people from dishing out millions to see Cruise's last mega blockbuster "War of the Worlds". The only way to assume that a movie will do worse based on poor quality (and that only happens when the movie is 'Batman & Robin'-caliber awful, which I don't think J.J. "Lost/Alias" Abrams is capable of delivering) would be to concede that Titanic is the greatest movie ever made. Ever. I know that's a broad argument, but it's the way I see it. Besides, Philip Seymour Hoffman + spy movie supervillain = awesome.

I know you worked in a theater, but there is no way in hell Pirates outgrosses Superman. It's just not happening. I loved the first pirates, and I love Johnny Depp, and the first one was huge, but...

1) Being family friendly doesn't mean much, since Superman is equally, if not more family friendly than Pirates. Everybody can enjoy him, and just about everybody does. I was watching those Chris Reeve movies when I was about three years old.

2) Trying to explain the whole pseudo-sequel thing will be much easier than trying to explain that Batman Begins was not a prequel. Positive buzz helped Batman much in the same way that I believe it will help Superman. While Begins was not the biggest movie of the year, Superman Returns has less baggage with 19 years separating it from Superman IV, and Superman is much more accessible than Batman and even Spider-Man. Any Average Joe knows who Superman is and will probably see the movie just based on that.

3) With the exception that is Titanic, Dedicated Geeks outdo Dedicated Hormanal Teenage Girls every time. I saw Spider-Man three times on its opening weekend and Batman Begins five times in theaters and there are people out there way crazier than me who've seen these movies dozens of times in theaters. If Spidey and Batman attract that kind of fanboy attention, then I do not doubt the Man of Steel will as well. The only question is whether or not this same phenomenon will affect X-Men. It will, but to a lesser extent. X-Men, like Pirates, is not outgrossing Superman.

Da Vinci Code will be huge, but I don't think it's going to do Harry Potter/Lord of the Rings numbers like many seem to think it will. The movie might not appeal to the same demographic that Mission: Impossible appeals to, whereas Superman appeals to everyone. Also, the only real blockbuster Ron Howard has to his name is Grinch, even though he has several great films.

I'm thinking Superman Returns will be the best film of the five, as well as the highest grossing. It has a shot as box office champ of 2006 in general. If I'm wrong, then I'm wrong (and I've been insanely wrong before), but this is what its looking like to me from where things are right now. From right now, before any of the movies have opened, it just seems like a no-brainer.

[aspdirector]

1) I think the only real thing you said that I disagree with is that being a family friendly doesn't mean much. I see your point with the whole pseudo-sequel thing. My issue with the family movies is that it's a Comedy/Action/Adventures. That not only is perfect for everyone in the family like the kids, but also is good for the older adults as well. You would be surprised how many people go to the movies just to shut their kids up. While I am not happy for the being the incentive to go to the movies for many people it only helps the industry. But with Pirates it has a loyal fanbase and already had people who saw the first one several times in theaters. Plus I wouldn't underestimate the power of those women who just go because they love Johnny Depp. In addition it also was one of the top rentals for longer then most other films. This reminds me of the Austin Powers movies, in which the first one was better, while the second grossed more in theaters just because so many people did wait for it to come out on video before they rented it.

I agree that X-Men will not outgross Pirates, but I would keep in mind that most uneducated Americans (the majority of the audiences) are ideots and
1. believe Superman is for kids
2. would rather see movies with more blood
3. isn't as cool as Batman, just because they chose to watch the Batman Animated Series as a child more then the Superman Animated series.
I am not disagreeing with you, but I am saying that you may be suprised at the numbers they recieve, but who knows anyways. We'll find out soon enough

[sonicduck85]

Remember that Smallville has been a hit on a teen-oriented network for several years, and that Lois & Clark was a hit among adults.

Like I said, Superman is for everybody.

[tablefor1]

you guys are boring. I skipped all of those.