Possible start of stuff only interesting to me
I realized I mostly post to tell things to other people, and don't really journal much. I don't generally have a lot a feel like journaling about.
But
Tomorrow is the start of the English Premier League. (Soccer) I have playing in their official fantasy game for the last two years and will again this season with people from work. It is well designed and I have enjoyed it a lot. I've also gone from totally clueless about soccer and the EPL to pretty well informed. So I think I'm gonna try writing about my team and the seasons and all that for me and if anyone else wants to read that's cool, but I'm not gonna worry about that.
I need to finish my team tonight. I probably am set already, but I'm still gonna think and check some ideas because that is fun.
For anyone who cares, I will explain a little about how it works. You get 100 million pounds to spend on 15 players. (2 keepers, 5 defenders, 5 midfielders, 3 strikers) Eleven of them play each week. Must have exactly one keeper, and a minimum of 3 defenders. No more than 5 midfielders, 5 defenders or 3 forwards. Players cost from 4.0 to 12.0 millions pounds. Prices change during the season based on how many owners add and drop a player from their team. You can make one free roster move a week, and can save one (only) for a future week, giving you two. You can make extra changes at the cost of points. You get points player by player for playing at all and playing 60 or more minutes, goals scored, assists, and clean sheets. (That's when no goals are allowed.) Each match one player gets 3 bonus points, one player gets 32 bonus points and one player gets one bonus point. These are calculated by formula based on stuff in the game, not opinion.
Prices this season were set pretty well, and it is not possible to get a team full of stars, which I think makes it more fun as you have to know who is good and not a star, and about the players on all the teams not just the few at the top. The EPL is not like any US sports, and the dominant teams are *really* dominant. Also, the 3 bottom teams get *kicked out of the league and replaced by 3 teams from the league below.* Oh, just imagine if the NFL could have gotten rid of the Lions.... Also teams that finish in the top four get to play in a European Champions league, so there is even a serious batter for 4th! The big range of quality means that who plays who matters a lot, and who is at home also matters a lot. (The fields are not all the same size !?! and fans noise, etc.)
For all positions, you want guys who start. If someone does not play other guys you have get subbed in, but between injuries, red cards, and weird schedule stuff it can be hard to get 11 guys on the field sometimes. And no play = no points. You also get a captain who gets double points, and a vice captain who fills in if the captain does not play. (You can change them every week) It can be very hard to know who will actually get playing time, even for some of the better players.
Anyways, I am taking two cheap keepers to rotate depending on who is at home each week. You have to have two keepers and if you get a top one and bench the other, you end up wasting the money you have to spend on the 2nd guy. As it happens there is a cheap pair of keepers who's team's schedules fit pretty well. So, Shay Given from Aston Villa for 5.0 and Paddy Kenny from Queen's Park Rangers for 4.5, leaving 99.5.
Defenders are rough. For one things, they cost you points when they let up goal, and generally don't score or assist a lot. The few who do cost a lot extra. Plus since the whole defense and keeper all tend to score clean sheets together, there is a bigger team/group thing. Most people go with the minimum of three in any one match, and I like to do that as well. Last year the best team defense was Man City, although they rotated their defenders so much it was hard to take any of them. This season it looks like they have their two centers backs locked down, at least at the start, and they are not super expensive. Vincent Kompany for 6.0 and Julian Lescott for 6.5. Kompany is the 2nd most owned defender in the game, 25.4% of all teams have him. I actually surprised it is not higher. Sanchez Jose Enrique started the season at Newcastle and was accordingly priced at 5.0, but was sold (yes, sold) to Liverpool today, and is now the biggest bargain defender there is. Now picking guys is harder. In theory I could get two 4.0 cheapos and try to play the main three all the time, but that is tough because very few cheapos start every week. Plus, I am likely to want the option to rotate when Liverpool goes to top teams, and I don't want to be stuck with a terrible player if there are injury issues. So, looking at all the 4-5 million guys, I do see Aaron Huges of Fullham is 5.0, and Fullham was a very good defense team last season, should be the same this season, and has an decent number of not bad fixtures to start with. And it turns out there are a few starters at 4.0 - Danny Simpson of Newcastle and two guys from QPR. Since one of my keepers is from QPR I'm going to go with Simpson. I am going to go back over my 4th and 5th pics again to see if there is a cheaper way to get coverage I like and to make sure their fixtures go well with Man City and Liverpool. Total is 26.5.
Midfield is rough because I have many options. Lots of medium priced value guys, but I need a few players who cost more per point but get more points. A few I think are obvious, Charles N'Zogbia started at Wigan but was sold to Aston Villa, and will start for sure, and is very good and AV have an amazingly easy first ten or so fixtures. He costs 7.5. The guys replacing him at Wigan, Victor Moses will start for sure as well, and has had a great preseason (more meaningful in the EPL than other spots) and he costs 5.0 which is a steal. Having looked around a lot, I noticed, as did a pile of other people, that QPRs winger Adel Taarbat who had a really great season last year in the lower league is only 6.5, and QPR also have a great run of starting fixtures. He won't do nearly as well, but that will be fine given his cost. Now it gets hard, as I'll only end up with 3 or 4 at most biggish money guys and some of them will be forwards. After a ton of thinking, I end up with David Silva, also of Man City, who is 9.5 and likely worth that, and quite possibly worth a lot more. Yet another team with good early fixtures, which is not an accident at all! Last spot will be the guy who most often does not start for me, so cheap is good, but not sucky, which means more than 5.0, since I already have the one 5.0 guy worth taking. Once again I end up looking at the promoted sides, where cheap players who start tend to be, and Wesley Hoolihan of Norwich is 5.5 and one of the two good players on that team. Total cost 34.0
I have decent cash left for forwards, (30.0) but no so much I can go mad. I also want to save 0.5 for when I need to make moves later on. The top prices are 12.0 and the really good ones are 9.5 and up. If injuries were no issues this would actually be easy but one of the guys I really want ( Javier Hernandez of Manchester United for 10.0 ) has a concussion and is out the first few weeks. Another guy I would like to just get, Luis Suarez of Liverpool who is a big fat bargain at 9.5 is tired from playing for his country in a tournament, and may not start - although very late data says he probably will. There are two 10.0 strikers I like, Darren Bent of Aston Villa and Andy Carroll of Liverpool. There are a number of cheaper options around too. I am most likely to use my free changes here to pick up the guys I really want as they come in, but I also want to get good value for my big guys while I have them. And the fixtues are not a big help. While Aston Villa has a great start, their very first game is away at Fullham, and that will be tough. Man U will probably pound West Bromwhich Albion away and then gets home vs a blah defense and home vs a decent defense. Liverpool will probably pound Sunderland at home but then goes away to Arsenal, but then gets Bolton at home. It is impossible to know who will start for Chelsea so those guys are out. Arsenal starts away at Newcastle, which is okay, then gets Liverpool at home and then Man U away, which ill be awful. Plus their really good 12.0 Robin Van Persie is way injury prone, and may not even be fit for this week. Hernandez, Suarez and Bent would be 29.5 and *exactly* what I want, but I can't take non-playing Hernandez. I could swap him for Carroll at the start, but that gives me two Liverpool strikers for the away at Arsenal game and I don' think I can plan to get Hernandez next week either. I do like the idea of getting in on the Man U vs WBA game, but the only safe Man U striker is Wayne Rooney at 12.0 and that price means I'll need a cheaper guy to stay under budget. If I end up with Rooney and Carroll and cheap guy, I actually have 0 of 3 people I want, and that means three weeks of transfers - and an injury could mess that plan up.
Arggh. I am really thinking about this as I type, unlike the previous sections where I reported thinking I had done.
If I start with Suarez, (don't sit, arrgh, risk of sitting) and Rooney and Mr cheap, I only need to make two moves. I can either get Rooney out week two and bring someone in week 3, or I can wait and do both week three. Flexible is good. Rooney for Bent week 2 and Cheapo for Hernandez week 3. And If Bent gets hurt I can keep Rooney and extra week. I'll know more about when Hernandez is due back....
The Guardian lists Suarez as a starter. If he does not play then Hoolihan does. He is facing Wigan, and their defense is awful. Worst case is I get 2 from him (the minimum for someone who plays a whole match) which is also what I could get from Suarez anyways, he is not a lock to score, nobody ever is. And I don't like having needing three transfers, and Bent's first match is not so good. So, Rooney and Suarez and, um someone from the list of good not expensive guys....and Fullham's Bobby Zamora, who I like anyways at 7.0 has AV at home, which is very nice first, and then away at Wolverhampton Wanderers and Newcastle. Not even bad after that aside from Man City week 5. If he plays week 2 or even up through 4 I'm okay. Rooney 12.0, Suarez 9.5, Zamora 7.0 for 28.5
That leaves 1.5 left over.
Now I check if there is a MF for 8.0 or less I want more than Zamora, as I could get a 5.5 forward instead of a 5.5 MF - and a big no. Well, Gnegneri Toure Yaya is 8.0, but he plays for Man City, and I can only have three guys from one team and I do not want to swap them around. I look set. I have 0.5 spare since 1.0 is going to make up the difference between Rooney+Zamora vs Hernandez+Bent.
I will make Silva the Captain and Rooney the VC. That is a tough choice, but I think the upside for Silva is better and as a MF he will get 1 extra for a clean sheet even if he does not score or assist.
Given sits. Backup fielders in order, Hoolihan, Huges and Simpson. Huges is defending against my guy N'Zogbia which means that matchup is win/lose for me, but Simpson faces Arsenal and they could just pound Newcastle.
Ack, I need to check cheap defense again. I'll do that after I hit post and do an update if I make changes. I'm not expecting to.
Can you believe I do this for fun?
If you read the whole thing let me know :-)
But
Tomorrow is the start of the English Premier League. (Soccer) I have playing in their official fantasy game for the last two years and will again this season with people from work. It is well designed and I have enjoyed it a lot. I've also gone from totally clueless about soccer and the EPL to pretty well informed. So I think I'm gonna try writing about my team and the seasons and all that for me and if anyone else wants to read that's cool, but I'm not gonna worry about that.
I need to finish my team tonight. I probably am set already, but I'm still gonna think and check some ideas because that is fun.
For anyone who cares, I will explain a little about how it works. You get 100 million pounds to spend on 15 players. (2 keepers, 5 defenders, 5 midfielders, 3 strikers) Eleven of them play each week. Must have exactly one keeper, and a minimum of 3 defenders. No more than 5 midfielders, 5 defenders or 3 forwards. Players cost from 4.0 to 12.0 millions pounds. Prices change during the season based on how many owners add and drop a player from their team. You can make one free roster move a week, and can save one (only) for a future week, giving you two. You can make extra changes at the cost of points. You get points player by player for playing at all and playing 60 or more minutes, goals scored, assists, and clean sheets. (That's when no goals are allowed.) Each match one player gets 3 bonus points, one player gets 32 bonus points and one player gets one bonus point. These are calculated by formula based on stuff in the game, not opinion.
Prices this season were set pretty well, and it is not possible to get a team full of stars, which I think makes it more fun as you have to know who is good and not a star, and about the players on all the teams not just the few at the top. The EPL is not like any US sports, and the dominant teams are *really* dominant. Also, the 3 bottom teams get *kicked out of the league and replaced by 3 teams from the league below.* Oh, just imagine if the NFL could have gotten rid of the Lions.... Also teams that finish in the top four get to play in a European Champions league, so there is even a serious batter for 4th! The big range of quality means that who plays who matters a lot, and who is at home also matters a lot. (The fields are not all the same size !?! and fans noise, etc.)
For all positions, you want guys who start. If someone does not play other guys you have get subbed in, but between injuries, red cards, and weird schedule stuff it can be hard to get 11 guys on the field sometimes. And no play = no points. You also get a captain who gets double points, and a vice captain who fills in if the captain does not play. (You can change them every week) It can be very hard to know who will actually get playing time, even for some of the better players.
Anyways, I am taking two cheap keepers to rotate depending on who is at home each week. You have to have two keepers and if you get a top one and bench the other, you end up wasting the money you have to spend on the 2nd guy. As it happens there is a cheap pair of keepers who's team's schedules fit pretty well. So, Shay Given from Aston Villa for 5.0 and Paddy Kenny from Queen's Park Rangers for 4.5, leaving 99.5.
Defenders are rough. For one things, they cost you points when they let up goal, and generally don't score or assist a lot. The few who do cost a lot extra. Plus since the whole defense and keeper all tend to score clean sheets together, there is a bigger team/group thing. Most people go with the minimum of three in any one match, and I like to do that as well. Last year the best team defense was Man City, although they rotated their defenders so much it was hard to take any of them. This season it looks like they have their two centers backs locked down, at least at the start, and they are not super expensive. Vincent Kompany for 6.0 and Julian Lescott for 6.5. Kompany is the 2nd most owned defender in the game, 25.4% of all teams have him. I actually surprised it is not higher. Sanchez Jose Enrique started the season at Newcastle and was accordingly priced at 5.0, but was sold (yes, sold) to Liverpool today, and is now the biggest bargain defender there is. Now picking guys is harder. In theory I could get two 4.0 cheapos and try to play the main three all the time, but that is tough because very few cheapos start every week. Plus, I am likely to want the option to rotate when Liverpool goes to top teams, and I don't want to be stuck with a terrible player if there are injury issues. So, looking at all the 4-5 million guys, I do see Aaron Huges of Fullham is 5.0, and Fullham was a very good defense team last season, should be the same this season, and has an decent number of not bad fixtures to start with. And it turns out there are a few starters at 4.0 - Danny Simpson of Newcastle and two guys from QPR. Since one of my keepers is from QPR I'm going to go with Simpson. I am going to go back over my 4th and 5th pics again to see if there is a cheaper way to get coverage I like and to make sure their fixtures go well with Man City and Liverpool. Total is 26.5.
Midfield is rough because I have many options. Lots of medium priced value guys, but I need a few players who cost more per point but get more points. A few I think are obvious, Charles N'Zogbia started at Wigan but was sold to Aston Villa, and will start for sure, and is very good and AV have an amazingly easy first ten or so fixtures. He costs 7.5. The guys replacing him at Wigan, Victor Moses will start for sure as well, and has had a great preseason (more meaningful in the EPL than other spots) and he costs 5.0 which is a steal. Having looked around a lot, I noticed, as did a pile of other people, that QPRs winger Adel Taarbat who had a really great season last year in the lower league is only 6.5, and QPR also have a great run of starting fixtures. He won't do nearly as well, but that will be fine given his cost. Now it gets hard, as I'll only end up with 3 or 4 at most biggish money guys and some of them will be forwards. After a ton of thinking, I end up with David Silva, also of Man City, who is 9.5 and likely worth that, and quite possibly worth a lot more. Yet another team with good early fixtures, which is not an accident at all! Last spot will be the guy who most often does not start for me, so cheap is good, but not sucky, which means more than 5.0, since I already have the one 5.0 guy worth taking. Once again I end up looking at the promoted sides, where cheap players who start tend to be, and Wesley Hoolihan of Norwich is 5.5 and one of the two good players on that team. Total cost 34.0
I have decent cash left for forwards, (30.0) but no so much I can go mad. I also want to save 0.5 for when I need to make moves later on. The top prices are 12.0 and the really good ones are 9.5 and up. If injuries were no issues this would actually be easy but one of the guys I really want ( Javier Hernandez of Manchester United for 10.0 ) has a concussion and is out the first few weeks. Another guy I would like to just get, Luis Suarez of Liverpool who is a big fat bargain at 9.5 is tired from playing for his country in a tournament, and may not start - although very late data says he probably will. There are two 10.0 strikers I like, Darren Bent of Aston Villa and Andy Carroll of Liverpool. There are a number of cheaper options around too. I am most likely to use my free changes here to pick up the guys I really want as they come in, but I also want to get good value for my big guys while I have them. And the fixtues are not a big help. While Aston Villa has a great start, their very first game is away at Fullham, and that will be tough. Man U will probably pound West Bromwhich Albion away and then gets home vs a blah defense and home vs a decent defense. Liverpool will probably pound Sunderland at home but then goes away to Arsenal, but then gets Bolton at home. It is impossible to know who will start for Chelsea so those guys are out. Arsenal starts away at Newcastle, which is okay, then gets Liverpool at home and then Man U away, which ill be awful. Plus their really good 12.0 Robin Van Persie is way injury prone, and may not even be fit for this week. Hernandez, Suarez and Bent would be 29.5 and *exactly* what I want, but I can't take non-playing Hernandez. I could swap him for Carroll at the start, but that gives me two Liverpool strikers for the away at Arsenal game and I don' think I can plan to get Hernandez next week either. I do like the idea of getting in on the Man U vs WBA game, but the only safe Man U striker is Wayne Rooney at 12.0 and that price means I'll need a cheaper guy to stay under budget. If I end up with Rooney and Carroll and cheap guy, I actually have 0 of 3 people I want, and that means three weeks of transfers - and an injury could mess that plan up.
Arggh. I am really thinking about this as I type, unlike the previous sections where I reported thinking I had done.
If I start with Suarez, (don't sit, arrgh, risk of sitting) and Rooney and Mr cheap, I only need to make two moves. I can either get Rooney out week two and bring someone in week 3, or I can wait and do both week three. Flexible is good. Rooney for Bent week 2 and Cheapo for Hernandez week 3. And If Bent gets hurt I can keep Rooney and extra week. I'll know more about when Hernandez is due back....
The Guardian lists Suarez as a starter. If he does not play then Hoolihan does. He is facing Wigan, and their defense is awful. Worst case is I get 2 from him (the minimum for someone who plays a whole match) which is also what I could get from Suarez anyways, he is not a lock to score, nobody ever is. And I don't like having needing three transfers, and Bent's first match is not so good. So, Rooney and Suarez and, um someone from the list of good not expensive guys....and Fullham's Bobby Zamora, who I like anyways at 7.0 has AV at home, which is very nice first, and then away at Wolverhampton Wanderers and Newcastle. Not even bad after that aside from Man City week 5. If he plays week 2 or even up through 4 I'm okay. Rooney 12.0, Suarez 9.5, Zamora 7.0 for 28.5
That leaves 1.5 left over.
Now I check if there is a MF for 8.0 or less I want more than Zamora, as I could get a 5.5 forward instead of a 5.5 MF - and a big no. Well, Gnegneri Toure Yaya is 8.0, but he plays for Man City, and I can only have three guys from one team and I do not want to swap them around. I look set. I have 0.5 spare since 1.0 is going to make up the difference between Rooney+Zamora vs Hernandez+Bent.
I will make Silva the Captain and Rooney the VC. That is a tough choice, but I think the upside for Silva is better and as a MF he will get 1 extra for a clean sheet even if he does not score or assist.
Given sits. Backup fielders in order, Hoolihan, Huges and Simpson. Huges is defending against my guy N'Zogbia which means that matchup is win/lose for me, but Simpson faces Arsenal and they could just pound Newcastle.
Ack, I need to check cheap defense again. I'll do that after I hit post and do an update if I make changes. I'm not expecting to.
Can you believe I do this for fun?
If you read the whole thing let me know :-)