Women's Tennis Rankings Preview
As we reach the start of the Australian Open, women’s tennis finds itself in an unprecedented situation. Six women have a chance to finish the tournament as the No. 1 ranked player. Not only that, but four women are assured of attaining the top ranking by winning the title, regardless of anyone else’s result.
Caroline Wozniacki has held the No. 1 ranking for 66 of the past 67 weeks. Her status as the top player and the ranking system itself have been much criticized because Wozniacki has never won a major championship. In fact, she hasn’t even reached the final of a major since the 2009 U.S. Open. Rather she has achieved the ranking by winning ten Premier-level tournaments since August 2010. The perceived top players, Serena Williams and Kim Clijsters, have combined to win seven major titles in the previous three years, but haven’t been healthy enough to contend for the top spot. Serena has played just 11 tournaments the past two years, while Clijsters has played just 19. The ranking system uses a player’s top 16 results, and neither has come close to playing that many events. Even so, Clijsters did hold the top spot for one week in 2011.
At the end of the 2011 season, former Wimbledon champion Maria Sharapova positioned herself for a return to the top of the rankings by winning Rome and Cincinnati and reaching the finals at Wimbledon and Miami and the semifinals at Roland Garros. Unfortunately, a shoulder injury limited her play after the U.S. Open. Instead, Czech Petra Kvitova, who defeated Sharapova in the 2011 Wimbledon final, won the WTA Tour Championships and finished the year just 115 points behind Wozniacki. Also on the rise in 2011 was Victoria Azarenka. The Belarusian reached five finals and won three including Miami and reached the semifinals of Wimbledon. Her runner-up finish to Kvitova at the Tour Championships cemented her as the No. 3 player in the world.
Thus as the tennis world turns its attention to Melbourne, Wozniacki has an unprecedented five challengers to her No. 1 ranking. The four Majors have always been worth the most points in the WTA ranking system, so it’s no surprise that there have often been two or three players with the opportunity to be the No. 1 player at the conclusion of a Major. These scenarios often require the top-ranked player to lose before the final. However, the rankings have never before been so close as they are as we begin the Australian Open that four players-Wozniacki, Kvitova, Azarenka, and Sharapova-could each be No. 1 in the January 30th rankings by winning the title in Melbourne, regardless of how any of the others finish. Also within striking distance, but needing help, are 2011 U.S. Open champion Samantha Stosur and Agnieszka Radwanska.
Of course, with former Australian Open Champions Clijsters and Williams considered by some to be the favorites to win the title down under, we are far from assured that the No. 1 player will have won a major championship as Azarenka and Wozniacki could still be No. 1 without winning the title. Azarenka and Wozniacki would clinch the No. 1 ranking by reaching the final against someone other than Kvitova or Sharapova. Either would clinch the top spot if Sharapova were to lose in the semifinals to someone other than Kvitova, and only one of them had reached the SF’s. Basically, if either Azarenka or Wozniacki advances to at least the fourth round and does better than Kvitova and as well as Sharapova, we’d still have the situation of a No. 1 player without a Major. Incidentally, if they both lose in the fourth round or quarterfinals, Azarenka will be No. 1 although tied in points with Wozniacki.
Sharapova can also become No. 1 without winning the title. Either she beats someone other than Kvitova in the semifinals and loses to someone other than Azarenka or Wozniacki in the finals. Or, she reaches the semifinals, neither Azarenka nor Wozniacki reaches the quarterfinals, and Kvitova loses before the fourth round. Inexplicably, even though Sharapova last won a major at the 2008 Australian Open, there will be fewer gripes about the ranking system.
Even if she wins the Open, chances are that Radwanska will not ascend to the top of the rankings. She would need Kvitova to lose in the first round, Wozniacki and Azarenka to lose before the fourth round, and Sharapova to fall in the quarterfinals or earlier. Stosur has a better chance, as she would just need Wozniacki and Azarenka to lose before the semifinals.
Petra Kvitova is the favorite to gain the top ranking. As long as Stosur doesn’t win the title, Kvitova need only do as well as the other top three challengers to take over the No. 1 ranking. Even if she fails to gain the top ranking in Melbourne, Kvitova has few points to defend between Paris and Madrid, so she should challenge for the top spot during the spring. Regardless, it’s going to be a less controversial year on the WTA Tour. Hopefully, that’s a good thing.
Caroline Wozniacki has held the No. 1 ranking for 66 of the past 67 weeks. Her status as the top player and the ranking system itself have been much criticized because Wozniacki has never won a major championship. In fact, she hasn’t even reached the final of a major since the 2009 U.S. Open. Rather she has achieved the ranking by winning ten Premier-level tournaments since August 2010. The perceived top players, Serena Williams and Kim Clijsters, have combined to win seven major titles in the previous three years, but haven’t been healthy enough to contend for the top spot. Serena has played just 11 tournaments the past two years, while Clijsters has played just 19. The ranking system uses a player’s top 16 results, and neither has come close to playing that many events. Even so, Clijsters did hold the top spot for one week in 2011.
At the end of the 2011 season, former Wimbledon champion Maria Sharapova positioned herself for a return to the top of the rankings by winning Rome and Cincinnati and reaching the finals at Wimbledon and Miami and the semifinals at Roland Garros. Unfortunately, a shoulder injury limited her play after the U.S. Open. Instead, Czech Petra Kvitova, who defeated Sharapova in the 2011 Wimbledon final, won the WTA Tour Championships and finished the year just 115 points behind Wozniacki. Also on the rise in 2011 was Victoria Azarenka. The Belarusian reached five finals and won three including Miami and reached the semifinals of Wimbledon. Her runner-up finish to Kvitova at the Tour Championships cemented her as the No. 3 player in the world.
Thus as the tennis world turns its attention to Melbourne, Wozniacki has an unprecedented five challengers to her No. 1 ranking. The four Majors have always been worth the most points in the WTA ranking system, so it’s no surprise that there have often been two or three players with the opportunity to be the No. 1 player at the conclusion of a Major. These scenarios often require the top-ranked player to lose before the final. However, the rankings have never before been so close as they are as we begin the Australian Open that four players-Wozniacki, Kvitova, Azarenka, and Sharapova-could each be No. 1 in the January 30th rankings by winning the title in Melbourne, regardless of how any of the others finish. Also within striking distance, but needing help, are 2011 U.S. Open champion Samantha Stosur and Agnieszka Radwanska.
Of course, with former Australian Open Champions Clijsters and Williams considered by some to be the favorites to win the title down under, we are far from assured that the No. 1 player will have won a major championship as Azarenka and Wozniacki could still be No. 1 without winning the title. Azarenka and Wozniacki would clinch the No. 1 ranking by reaching the final against someone other than Kvitova or Sharapova. Either would clinch the top spot if Sharapova were to lose in the semifinals to someone other than Kvitova, and only one of them had reached the SF’s. Basically, if either Azarenka or Wozniacki advances to at least the fourth round and does better than Kvitova and as well as Sharapova, we’d still have the situation of a No. 1 player without a Major. Incidentally, if they both lose in the fourth round or quarterfinals, Azarenka will be No. 1 although tied in points with Wozniacki.
Sharapova can also become No. 1 without winning the title. Either she beats someone other than Kvitova in the semifinals and loses to someone other than Azarenka or Wozniacki in the finals. Or, she reaches the semifinals, neither Azarenka nor Wozniacki reaches the quarterfinals, and Kvitova loses before the fourth round. Inexplicably, even though Sharapova last won a major at the 2008 Australian Open, there will be fewer gripes about the ranking system.
Even if she wins the Open, chances are that Radwanska will not ascend to the top of the rankings. She would need Kvitova to lose in the first round, Wozniacki and Azarenka to lose before the fourth round, and Sharapova to fall in the quarterfinals or earlier. Stosur has a better chance, as she would just need Wozniacki and Azarenka to lose before the semifinals.
Petra Kvitova is the favorite to gain the top ranking. As long as Stosur doesn’t win the title, Kvitova need only do as well as the other top three challengers to take over the No. 1 ranking. Even if she fails to gain the top ranking in Melbourne, Kvitova has few points to defend between Paris and Madrid, so she should challenge for the top spot during the spring. Regardless, it’s going to be a less controversial year on the WTA Tour. Hopefully, that’s a good thing.