File this under, "I told you so."
1981 climate change predictions were eerily accurate [IO9; with links to paper in Science magazine and to RealClimate.org]A paper published in the journal Science in August 1981 made several projections regarding future climate change and anthropogenic global warming based on manmade CO2 emissions. As it turns out, the authors' projections have proven to be rather accurate - and their future is now our present.
Even though the paper was given 10 pages in Science, it covers a lot of advanced topics related to climate - indicating the level of knowledge known about climate science even at that time.
[...]
"The concepts and conclusions have not changed all that much," van Oldenborgh and Haarsma note. "Hansen et al clearly indicate what was well known (all of which still stands today) and what was uncertain."
Within the paper, several graphs note the growth of atmospheric carbon dioxide, both naturally occurring and manmade, and projected a future rise based on the continued use of fossil fuels by humans. Van Oldenborgh and Haarsma overlaid data gathered by NASA and KNMI in recent years and found that the projections made by Hansen et al. were pretty much spot-on. If anything, the 1981 projections were "optimistic."
Even though the paper was given 10 pages in Science, it covers a lot of advanced topics related to climate - indicating the level of knowledge known about climate science even at that time.
[...]
"The concepts and conclusions have not changed all that much," van Oldenborgh and Haarsma note. "Hansen et al clearly indicate what was well known (all of which still stands today) and what was uncertain."
Within the paper, several graphs note the growth of atmospheric carbon dioxide, both naturally occurring and manmade, and projected a future rise based on the continued use of fossil fuels by humans. Van Oldenborgh and Haarsma overlaid data gathered by NASA and KNMI in recent years and found that the projections made by Hansen et al. were pretty much spot-on. If anything, the 1981 projections were "optimistic."