Drugs Policy is an Existential Threat

May 27, 2010 14:17

There's a classic quote that goes something like "You can ignore economics, but economics won't ignore you."

That's what I see subjectively when I look at the world. Had a look at Afghanistan? Suggestion that a highly powerful military coalition is in danger of losing to a bunch of opium farmers.

Cast an eye on Mexico? Drugs shippers are taking on a national army from a mid-level state, and not clearly losing. And that piece is spilling over into the US border states.

Now, Jamaica has three days (and counting) of firefights between police and a drugs army according to the WSJ. And that doesn't even touch on Columbia. I haven't tracked how many drugs armies are active there currently. Jamaica is disturbing to a resident of Britain because there are close links between British and Jamaica. The same concern should be felt in NYC, from what I've heard.

Can you see the link here? We have nations in danger of overthrow by forces funded by drugs income. Of course, that drugs income is inflated by prohibition. The markets for those drugs are protected from competition from legitimate businesses. The only "legitimate business expenses" for a drugs business (apart from capital and supplier trust) is fuel for shipping and security. Those businesses are generally not excessively affected by tax demands.

Seems to me that drugs armies are like a movie super-villain with an off-switch. Legalise the drugs, and you eliminate the economic base of the enemy almost instantly. A la Sun Tzu, the acme of strategy is not to defeat these guys in detail, with better comms, better tactics, better training or whatever. The acme of strategy is to gently deflate their balloon.

Otherwise, one of these days, a drugs army is going to conquer their first country.
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