I'm starting to think Morlocks might have just gotten lucky with their drops against Avengers in my testing so far. Statistically, the weakness seems to be hitting 4, 5, and 6 with only 4 copies of each character at that drop and 4 bloodhounds. The math works out like this:
Turn 6 Scaleface/Callisto or Bloodhound: (((60!/44!) - (51!/35!)) / (60!/44!)) = 95.2% (any more bloodhounds? probably not)
Turn 7: Good luck- you've probably already used your Bloodhounds, dropped your 6, and there's only 1 Ape in the deck. If it's your initiative, you should be fine, since your 6 will usually be able to finish the job. If you've got evens, I have no idea... maybe if you got them low enough on 6, and you've still got 20 (or so?) endurance, you can kill them with stunbacks and/or The Alley?
The problem is that if you use Bloodhound to get Storm on 4, you've only got about a 2/3 chance of drawing Marrow by 5. It will actually be slightly greater than 2/3 due to the chance of drawing a second Bloodhound on 5, but still not near the mid-80's that I'd like to see for a critical drop. I think going off-curve is only really feasible on turn 3 in this deck (intentionally so), far less often on turn 4 (usually under dropping), and almost never on 5 or 6.
And if you mulligan for either The Alley or your 1's & 2's, hitting 4-5-6 gets even harder, since there's a good chance you put at least one of them on the bottom.
Turn 4 Storm:
(((60!/48!) - (56!/44!)) / (60!/48!)) = 60.0% (not acceptable)
Turn 4 Storm or Bloodhound:
(((60!/48!) - (52!/40!)) / (60!/48!)) = 85.2% (acceptable)
Turn 5 Marrow:
(((60!/46!) - (56!/42!)) / (60!/46!)) = 66.5% (not acceptable)
Turn 5 Marrow or Bloodhound:
(((60!/46!) - (52!/38!)) / (60!/46!)) = 89.8% (acceptable, but there's a good chance you used your Bloodhound on 4...)
Turn 6 Scaleface/Callisto:
(((60!/44!) - (55!/39!)) / (60!/44!)) = 80.1% (meh)
Turn 6 Scaleface/Callisto or Bloodhound:
(((60!/44!) - (51!/35!)) / (60!/44!)) = 95.2% (any more bloodhounds? probably not)
Turn 7: Good luck- you've probably already used your Bloodhounds, dropped your 6, and there's only 1 Ape in the deck. If it's your initiative, you should be fine, since your 6 will usually be able to finish the job. If you've got evens, I have no idea... maybe if you got them low enough on 6, and you've still got 20 (or so?) endurance, you can kill them with stunbacks and/or The Alley?
The problem is that if you use Bloodhound to get Storm on 4, you've only got about a 2/3 chance of drawing Marrow by 5. It will actually be slightly greater than 2/3 due to the chance of drawing a second Bloodhound on 5, but still not near the mid-80's that I'd like to see for a critical drop. I think going off-curve is only really feasible on turn 3 in this deck (intentionally so), far less often on turn 4 (usually under dropping), and almost never on 5 or 6.
And if you mulligan for either The Alley or your 1's & 2's, hitting 4-5-6 gets even harder, since there's a good chance you put at least one of them on the bottom.
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