VETO PROBABILITY POSTskieOctober 21 2014, 14:33:58 UTC
CBB31 Veto Rolls for random.org - Details
If a nominated houseguest wins the veto then:
A) They will automatically use the necklace to save themselves, provided a 98 or lower is rolled out of 100.
If the 2% check succeeds ("Marcellas Factor"), or a non-nominated houseguest wins the veto, then we go to a B roll:
B) A roll with 3 options:
The House Guest will Not Veto a Nomination The Houseguest will Veto Nominee A The Houseguest will Veto Nominee B
A replacement Nominee roll will consist of all eligible houseguests in a random.org roll.
I considered putting "No Veto" into the hat twice, but looking at some of the statistics for Veto useage from the last season of Big Brother, it seems the veto is used more often than not (usually to accomplish a "backdooring" ... or at least what the houseguests call one even if they're not accurate in that term). So it will be a straight roll from these three.
I also realize potentially a houseguest could fail check A then end up vetoing themselves anyway on check B. I'm okay with that as we all know people only don't veto themselves in the most extreme circumstances, either naiveity (Marcellas) or to save an extremely close ally (i.e. Dick & Danielle BB8)
CBB31 Veto Rolls for random.org - Details
If a nominated houseguest wins the veto then:
A) They will automatically use the necklace to save themselves, provided a 98 or lower is rolled out of 100.
If the 2% check succeeds ("Marcellas Factor"), or a non-nominated houseguest wins the veto, then we go to a B roll:
B) A roll with 3 options:
The House Guest will Not Veto a Nomination
The Houseguest will Veto Nominee A
The Houseguest will Veto Nominee B
A replacement Nominee roll will consist of all eligible houseguests in a random.org roll.
I considered putting "No Veto" into the hat twice, but looking at some of the statistics for Veto useage from the last season of Big Brother, it seems the veto is used more often than not (usually to accomplish a "backdooring" ... or at least what the houseguests call one even if they're not accurate in that term). So it will be a straight roll from these three.
I also realize potentially a houseguest could fail check A then end up vetoing themselves anyway on check B. I'm okay with that as we all know people only don't veto themselves in the most extreme circumstances, either naiveity (Marcellas) or to save an extremely close ally (i.e. Dick & Danielle BB8)
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